In some bizarro world, the Chicago Bears have almost $100M ($98.8M, to be exact) to spend in free agency. With two teams $50M+ over the cap (Saints, Bucs), somehow, the NFC bottom dwellers have found themselves with a boatload of cash to throw around. Outside of Justin Fields and David Montgomery, to a lesser extent, the Bears were atrocious in 2022 from a real NFL and fantasy football perspective. With all the Aaron Rodgers chatter this winter, I have not paid attention to little brother in Chicago, but that huge surplus means it is time we think long and hard about what the Bears can/will do with $98.8M. As a noted Packers homer and a #neverfields drum beater, I am confident the Bears will find a way to mess up this seemingly bottomless checkbook.
In other news from the NFC North, the Lions have over $20M to spend, and my beloved Packers have around $2M to lure a WR7 to the team, while the Vikings are logging in at more than $23M over the cap. So let’s take a quick look at some fantasy-relevant players for each NFC North squad and decide what each team will do with those names.
@BobbyLaMarco and I (@stiles08) will be chatting about these teams/names and their potential landing spots Tuesday night at Razzball YouTube channel. Tune in and be a part of the discussion with your questions and comments. As always, if you want to discuss anything in this article, feel free to drop notes at the bottom of this thread.
Chicago Bears – As mentioned above, the Bears, who finished dead last in the NFC North and NFL in 2022, have $98.8M to waste…err, spend in free agency leading up to the 2023 season. I am confident the Bears will bring back David Montgomery in free agency, as I do not think Khalil Herbert is ready to be an NFL RB1 carrying the full load. The Bears can probably extend Monty’s career by instituting a 60-40 split between the two backs. Montgomery has averaged 228 carries and 902 yards over his four seasons. Those numbers look OK at first glance but know those numbers equate to a 3.9 yard per carry, leaving a lot to be desired from an RB1. Montgomery knows the system and has been solid during his time with the Bears. I do not see Chicago making a big splash at RB in free agency. Couple that with their obvious, glaring needs at WR, and I think Montgomery will be resigned. Speaking of WR, the Bears can easily and happily allow Dante Pettis, N’Keal Harry, and Byron Pringle to walk. The Bears need to provide help to Fields, and I truly believe that starts at WR and offensive line. The Bears will draft both positions and sign one, possibly two, WR in free agency to support Darnell Mooney on the outside. I think Chicago brings back Riley Reiff and Michael Schofield on the offensive line to shore up the right side. Both will be back if the cost is right for the Bears. From there, I do not see a lot of in-house talent that the Bears will resign in free agency, and I think this franchise will have a much different 53-player look than it did in 2022. That cannot be a bad thing for a 3-14 team.
Detroit Lions – A second team with a bevy of cash to throw around in 2023 is the Lions at $23.1M. The NFC North team that foiled Green Bay’s chance at the final playoff spot in 2022 has some holes to address and some interesting names looming in free agency. Jamaal Williams is at the top of the list of Lions’ players the team should look to bring back. That is it. That is the list. With his breakout 2022 season (1066 yards, 17 TDs), Williams made a case for him being a must-sign in the off season. The only way I see the Lions going away from Williams is if they feel D’Andre Swift can carry the full load at RB with breathers provided by Justin Jackson (also a free agent). Knowing what Williams brings to the locker room from his time in Green Bay, I do not see a scenario where the Lions do not pay the guy…unless he (and his agent) delivers contract demands, the team simply cannot justify. I think they find a way to bring Williams back, and the offense is in good hands at the RB position. I also think Jackson is back on a team-friendly contract, solidifying the backfield. The interesting name for me is DJ Chark, who underperformed in his first season with the Lions. He hauled in 30 balls for 502 yards and a paltry three TDs (17 fewer catches and 114 fewer yards than Kalif Raymond). Not exactly what Detroit expected from the 2022 free agent acquisition. Throw into the mix the mid-season trade to acquire T.J. Hockenson plus a second (truly first full) season from Jameson Williams, and I believe Chark will be looking for a new team in 2023.
Green Bay Packers – Another NFC North team with some (very little) cap space. The Packers, in fact, were above the cap until some fiscal wizardry with the Aaron Jones contract brought them some flex. Sitting around $2M available in free agency is not a prime position, and we need to await the ‘other Aaron’ situation to know the true scope of the finances for the Packers. I am confident Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Marcedes Lewis will all be let go. I can envision Lazard heading to the Bears, as that would be a Bears move. I do not think Lazard would be the same player in Chicago, but his off-season salary asks will be higher than what the Packers can afford. Back to Cobb and Lewis. Two of Aaron Rodgers’ closest friends on the team will most certainly walk, which leads me to believe the veteran QB will also request a trade out of Green Bay. As much as I love the Super Bowl, he brought the Packers (or was it truly the defense?) and all the MVPs on this mantle. I am also aware of his pettiness. He will want to leave and prove he can win somewhere else. Somewhere with a team of offensive support as he has never felt he received in the second half of his career in Green Bay. I think it is time, and the departures of Cobb and Lewis make me think he is as good as gone. Once that situation shakes out, we will see how much money, if any, the Packers will have to spend on bringing Jordan Love some help.
Minnesota Vikings – Currently, the only NFC North team over the cap is the reigning division champs. Of the free agents wearing Vikings purple in 2022, I can see the team attempting to find a way to bring back both Alexander Mattison (RB) and Garrett Bradbury (C). The issue with bringing those two players back is the need to cut salaries prior to doing so. In our 2023 Cap Casualty article, we discussed the likelihood of Minnesota cutting Adam Thielen and C.J. Ham for a total savings of $9.5M. Even with those cuts, the team will still be well over $10M in the red. Minnesota cannot begin to address Mattison and Bradbury until they make some tough calls on the cap to get into the black. Even if they release three offensive linemen (O’Neill, Cleveland, Reed) along with Thielen and Ham, they are still above the cap number. All of that to say this…the Vikings have a lot of work to do prior to addressing their free agents.
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-Mitch-
