There’s a general “Efficiency” quote out there in the real world. It states, “Efficiency is doing better than what is already being done.” Ok, that makes sense. I can work with that in the fantasy world, too.
We have many ways to define “efficiency” in fantasy football but I’m going to take a different angle on it as I look back on the 2023 regular season. Instead of ranking player efficiency based on their traditional production (yardage, receptions, TDs scored, etc.) as most analysts do, I went to the handy dandy spreadsheet and came up with an “efficiency” metric that tells a slightly different story.
As you’ll see, many of the results make perfect sense, but there are a few others that are interesting. Maybe even insightful. Hang with me. This will make sense in short order.
There are a few ground rules before we look at the data. (1) I scored all players through Week 17 to eliminate the bias of Week 18. Plus, most of our leagues (should be ALL…) don’t extend into Week 18, so why factor those stats into our review when they don’t matter? (2) I used PPR scoring because, well, that’s my favorite format. Hey, don’t hate if you prefer half-point or standard…the driver picks the radio station! (3) That’s really about it.
Let’s get to the numbers…
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QB
Like most things, we should start with QBs. Ideally, we want to draft QBs that give us a good, stable floor with potential for peak performances. To me, the threshold for a “floor” is 20 fantasy points. That might be a little higher than most, but I have high standards, I guess. At any rate, I want to identify QBs who have the potential to surpass 20 points regularly.
At the same time, I also want to identify QBs who have a higher probability of a “peak performance,” which I define at 30 points. This doesn’t happen often, but if there are a few that stand out here, I want to identify them.
With all this in mind, here are the top “floor” and “peak performance” leaders this season. Focus on column 2 of the tables. This shows, by percentage, the number of games each QB played in which they surpassed either 20 or 30 fantasy points, respectively.
There aren’t many surprises in the first table, as many QBs surpass 20 fantasy points each week. This is especially true of “running” QBs. However, there are some noticeable exceptions. For instance, Joe Flacco comes in 3rd on the list. Despite being QB #32 on the season and “only” scoring 108.8 fantasy points total, he surpassed 20 points in 60% of his games. That’s efficient!
Shifting to the second table, only 12 QBs scored over 30 points in a game. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the only ones who did it 3 times. Notice Jalen Hurts. Although 2nd in QB points overall, he only had one “peak performance” game. At the other end of the spectrum, Daniel Jones was a huge disappointment overall, but if he can come back with peak performances at this rate, he’ll be a steal next draft season. There are some interesting results here, for sure.
RB
I used the same analysis for the ground pounders, but I set my “floor” at 20 points and “peak performance” greater than 25 points. You may think there isn’t much distinction between these two close numbers, but you may be surprised.
See what I mean? Only 3 RBs (Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and De’Von Achane) surpassed 20 points in > 50% of their games. Only 4 RBs (these three plus Breece Hall) surpassed 25 points in > 25% of their games.
Austin Ekeler is a surprising name on the first list. The fantasy world is down on him right now, for very good reason, but this analysis suggests there’s still hope. The same analysis applies to Aaron Jones as well. He may not have been consistent, but when he was on, he was on.
WR
I set 3 thresholds for WRs. The “floor” at 20 points, “peak performance” at 30 points, and what I’ll call “extreme performance” at 40 points. As expected, the list gets pretty small by the third table. Here they are:
A total of 25 WRs scored 20 points or more in at least 25% of their games, led by Tyreek Hill at 60%. Not many surprises here, perhaps Noah Brown and George Pickens. Other than that, this list makes sense.
Moving to the “peak performers” in the middle table, 11 of the top 18 WRs made this list. This list makes sense, too.
For the “extreme performers” in the final table, only 7 WRs had at least one game scoring over 40 points. Only Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb did it more than once. Shoutouts to Amari Cooper and DJ Moore for making this list as well.
TE
Finally, we get to the TE position. For this position, I set the “floor” at 15 points and “peak performance” at 25 points. We knew the TE position was a wasteland for much of the season, and these tables highlight just how few consistent performers we had.
By now, you know what I’m looking at in these tables, so I’m not going to tell you much more than you already see for yourselves. Most of the names are expected, but not necessarily in the ranked order we may have predicted. Overall, I think this metric solidifies the draft strategy that many of us have in not reaching for TEs too early.
There you have it. I hope you enjoyed analyzing the data in a slightly different way. The goal was to see if the numbers tell us something a little different than the mainstream analysis, and I think we achieved that in many ways. Put this in your back pocket for the early best balls, or even review it next summer prior to draft season.
Was there anything here that surprised you? Did I miss anything? Be sure to drop any comments you may have in the area below. I always like to get your feedback.
Look for my articles right here, and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
