Ladies and gentlemen, if you squint carefully, you can see that the 2023 NFL season is on the horizon. Live, meaningful football is that pristine “oasis” projecting allure across a vast desert as we trek onward for hydration. We are on the cusp of a beautiful crescendo consisting of camp hype, depth chart battles, and fantasy drafts, concluding with actually watching the game we love and admire.
Dynasty Considerations
The artistry and challenge of dynasty fantasy football are that there is no hard and fast, staunch philosophy we must adhere to. There are different ways to “build” teams, accumulate players and draft picks, or naturally trade them away. For full context in this dynasty series, we must pay specific attention to player contracts, age, coaching staff, team ecosystem, and offensive scheme. Quarterbacks are essentially gold in Superflex; you are in a massive predicament if you are without them.
Tier 1
Undoubtedly this is the top-shelf talent of the position: elite passers who possess charismatic mobility, cerebral coaching staff/offensive schemes, and excellent team ecosystems.
-
Patrick Mahomes
While Mahomes does not offer as prominent of a rushing upside, he makes up for it with his IQ and sheer excellence. I don’t think much else needs to be said for Mahomes as we continue to watch him evolve and his brilliance abounds. Admittedly, I, amongst others in the industry, was concerned with Mahomes sans Tyreek Hill. He showed us that the team didn’t necessarily need an “alpha” wide receiver, merely an “alpha” tight end in Travis Kelce, sprinkled in with some decent receivers.
As if we needed another reason to trust Pat, PFF.com ranks Kansas City’s offensive line at number three. Patrick Mahomes is supremely talented and can make the Andy Reid-led offense work with just about anyone. Kelce will inevitably age out soon, and the supporting cast will change, but Mahomes is the QB1 in every possible way.
Age: 27.7 Contract: 10 years, $450 million, signed in 2020.
-
Jalen Hurts
There are several reasons Jalen Hurts comfortably slots in over Josh Allen for me as QB2. For starters, PFF.com has Philadelphia as their number 1 ranked offensive line. They lost one starter from last year but will still be an elite unit. Hurts is two years younger than Allen and on the upward trajectory of his rushing career. The designed runs and goal-line TDs should be plentiful again this year. In 2022 just in rushing alone, Hurts tallied 758 yards on 123 designed runs, 44 scrambles, and 13 TD.
He threw for 3701 yards and 22 TD on 542 dropbacks as a passer. The Eagles were crushing people last year, and the offense was not tested or needed to perform as much. Hurts was just getting warmed up in 2022, and I project that he will blow the doors off the league this year and usurps Mahomes as the consensus 1.01 in 2024 startup drafts. Jalen Hurts also has magnificent weapons in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and D’Andre Swift. The loss of Shane Steichen calling plays should be taken into consideration, but I don’t believe it will be a detriment to this juggernaut of an offense.
Age: 24.9 Contract: 5 years, $255 million, signed in 2023.
-
Josh Allen
Josh “the Stallion” Allen (shoutout @theffballers) is still very much, in fact, a Stallion. His stats and metrics from 2022 were essentially right on par with his massive 2021 campaign. He posted solid numbers in 4282 passing yards, 35 TD, on 696 dropbacks. Allen suffered a UCL elbow injury on his throwing arm midseason. He ultimately played through the entire season but did struggle quite a bit in a couple of games.
Last year was the first year without Brian Daboll calling plays, Allen was hurt, and Buffalo still failed to establish a significant running game. PFF.com has the Bills’ offensive line ranked 22nd, and I believe this is the year Sean McDermott begins to dial down some of the rushing and physical abuse from his star QB. Aside from Stefon Diggs, there aren’t any remarkable talents as pass-catching options. Will this finally be the Gabe Davis breakout year? Will 2023 first-round tight end selection Dalton Kincaid be the long-term difference maker in this offense?
Age: 27.1 Contract: 6 years, $258 million, signed in 2021. Potential restructuring.
Tier 2
My tier two consists solely of two guys. My philosophy is simple: Burrow is the most elite pocket passer, and Lamar is the most dynamic rushing QB on the board. With this in mind, both players have an overall QB1 upside.
-
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow epitomizes the word clutch. I am convinced there is no moment, throw, or play that is “too big” for him. Cincinnati tried to repair their woeful offensive line from 2021 last year, and it never really coalesced. This year the Bengals made a massive splash by adding star LT Orlando Brown. PFF.com has the Bengals ranked 17th in offensive line grades for 2023. Joe “Cool” has been playing behind a poor offensive line for the majority of his career, and just because he can, doesn’t mean he should be asked to do the impossible every Sunday.
Lastly, we factor in a stellar supporting cast: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and even the new addition of perpetual breakout tight end Irv Smith. An enormous contract looms for Burrow, making it strenuous to pay both Higgins and Chase. Cincinnati will find a way to make it work; they have to. While I am not the biggest proponent of Zac Taylor, he’s shown signs of improvement, and he most definitely knows where his bread is buttered.
Age: 26.5 Contract: Still on a rookie deal, in long-term extension talks with Cincinnati.
-
Lamar Jackson
We should not allow recency bias to dictate the pendulum swing too drastically on a player. This recency bias is where I confess to you that I have had a rather tenuous “relationship” in fantasy football with Lamar. A critical vulnerability for me in Jackson’s game is durability. This case can be made for any player, but it is evident that he failed to put together an entire season in two consecutive years due to injuries. I have been out on him in the past, but here’s why I am all in again.
Most importantly, Baltimore finally came to their senses and paid Jackson the legitimate contract he deserved. The Ravens drafted explosive wide receiver Zay Flowers in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft and signed veteran Odell Beckham. While Beckham’s vintage highlight reel days are departed, he is a solid veteran signing for Baltimore. Now, imagine that Rashod Bateman takes that next step into a breakout receiver.
Furthermore, J.K. Dobbins is another year removed from his significant ACL tear in 2021 and in for a big year. Baltimore also weighs in at number four on PFF.com offensive line rankings. Lastly, the Ravens hired a new Offensive Coordinator in Todd Monken. Monken’s fresh eyes on accentuating Lamar’s strengths, overhauling the offensive scheme, and shifting the play-calling philosophy will efficiently reboot the Ravens’ offense.
Age: 26.4 Contract: 5 years, $260 million, signed in 2023.
