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It’s never too early to look ahead, right? RIGHT?! Bob Lamarco and Derek Favret joined me for our first 2024 mock draft in order to see how much our recency bias plays a part in our early decision making. We were surprised by some of our First Round picks. Are you? This mock draft is of the Round 1 only. We will be continuing this mock draft series as the off-season progresses covering all rounds and players in redraft. Watch our latest mock draft video here where we break down each pick as a group.

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Redraft // Single QB // PPR

Pick 1: (Derek) Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)

  • When healthy, there’s no doubt CMC is the bona fide difference maker in fantasy football. He’ll be entering his 28-year-old season in 2024. This season, he led the NFL in rushing yards, attempts, receiving TDs by RB, fantasy points per game (ppg) with 24.5, and total PPR fantasy points at 391.3 (123 more than Etienne at RB2). CMC had 21 total TDs, was 2nd w/ 20+ rushes (behind only De’Von Achane) and finished 3rd in targets and receiving yards among RBs. The only concern is health. 

Pick 2: (Bob) Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)

  • Cheetah is the WR version of CMC. He’s a game-wrecker and can win weeks with a catch. Reek was 1st in WR PPRPPG with 23.7 and receiving yards, bringing in 1,717 + 12 TDs. He had an absurd 56 20+ yard plays which is the most by 14 among WRs. He missed a game and played injured through a few more. Like CMC, the only concern (for the most part) is health.

Pick 3: (Sky) CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

  • Lamb took that step we were hoping for. He led the NFL in targets (168) and receptions (122). He was 2nd in PPRPPG (behind Tyreek), receiving yards (Tyreek), and TDs (Mike Evans/Tyreek). Dallas lacked a running game this season. Will that keep up? Dak locks in on CeeDee, so I don’t think it matters. If Lamb gets double-digit TDs in 2024, he could end up as the WR1 overall (again). 

Pick 4: (Derek) Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)

  • Jettas is a no-brainer, assuming Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota. JJ was a Top 7 WR in the first four games with Cousins. However, he was WR36 or worse thereafter due to his own and Cousin’s injuries. If Cousins departs, what will the Vikings do at QB? Jefferson should be QB-proof, but until we see who is throwing him the ball, he’s our WR3. Jordan Addison put together a great season. TJ Hockenson will miss most of 2024 (most likely) due to a torn ACL late in the season. The run game is a mystery, and the defense improved immensely under Brian Flores, but he may land a head coaching job in the off-season. Lots to unpack here… 

Pick 5: (Bob) Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)

  • Kyren could/should be on people’s shortlist for Fantasy MVP — keep an eye out for our fantasy awards coming up soon. K-Will surprised everyone, finishing 2nd in rushing yards with 14 total TDs, all while missing 4 games. In 9 of his 12 games, he was an RB1. As of this writing, he has no competition in the Rams backfield — draft pending, of course. Many thought the Rams would fall off with Cooper Kupp coming in injured. While Kupp had a down year, the emergence of Puka Nacua and Williams elevated this offense. Kyren will be interesting come draft season — draft pending… of course. 

Pick 6: (Sky) Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)

  • Gibbs was one of the best draft deals this season. While all the hype was on fellow-rookie-RB Bijan Robinson (and rightfully so), it was Gibbs standing out for fantasy managers. He had 1,233 total yards and 10 TDs. From Week 7 on, he was Top 3 in PPR in 6 of 10 games scoring all of his TDs between weeks 7-16. David Montgomery scored three fewer PPRPPG playing side-by-side from Week 10-17. Gibbs got lead work and is the new “Alvin Kamara” in my opinion

Pick 7: (Derek) Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN)

  • Similar to Jefferson, Chase depends on Joe Burrow’s health. He was PPR WR10 with 1,200 rec yards and 7 TDs. We know what he can do. Jake Browning did an admirable job standing in for Burrow, and Chase didn’t plummet, but he wasn’t dominant either. Tee Higgins will either be franchise tagged or moved. Put a “TBD” on this pick for now. 

Pick 8: (Bob) Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)

  • “Sun God” increased his career highs across the board and landed at WR3 in PPR. He was 7th in targets, 5th in receiving yards, 5th in TDs and was electric down the stretch for fantasy managers lucky enough to roster him in the playoffs. Health permitting, there’s no reason St. Brown can’t repeat as a PPR monster next season. If he gets double-digit TDs, he could fight for WR1 overall. What he lacks in big plays, he makes up for in consistent targets and excellent routing.

Pick 9: (Sky) De’Von Achane (RB, MIA)

  • I’ll admit, this is easily the most risky pick of this mock. Raheem Mostert could return and keep Achane as a change-of-pace back. My thinking is that’s already happened, and Achane was great (most of the time). He was tied with Mostert for 4th most RB PPRPPG. He had 963 total yards and 10 TDs in just 10 games. Achane had the most 20+ yard runs (20)… in 10 games. Elite speed and a high-octane offense give me hope he can break out in 2024. Mostert stayed healthy this year but hasn’t otherwise in his career. You probably won’t have to draft Achane this early; I just felt frisky and wanted to flex early. 

Pick 10: (Derek) Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)

  • Another potentially risky pick is the No. 1 RB from the 2023 NFL Draft Class. While it’s easy to blame HC Arthur Smith for a sub-par season from Bijan, he did have a respectable 1K total yards, 8 TDs and 13.4 PPRPPG. The main two issues are his backmate Tyler Allgeier, who was quite good in his own right, stealing numerous TDs from Bijan throughout the season, and Smith not giving him top-tier work, which we expected. Smith may be out as the HC in ATL. Until we know for sure, let’s keep Bijan in our Top 10 out of respect. This is another “TBD” pick and scenario we need to monitor during the next few months. 

Pick 11: (Bob) Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)

  • Hall feels like he had a disappointing season because the Jets were a disaster on offense. That’s not actually the case. He played all 16 games and ended as the RB4 overall in PPR. Breece was just 23rd in rushing attempts but first in RB targets and receiving yards and 2nd in RB receptions. Aaron Rodgers will be returning. The Jets’ offensive line gets healthy. Heck, they might even add Davante Adams to open up the run game. Most importantly, Hall will be two years removed from injury. As of now, this pick feels almost too high; however, come draft season, he may be a Top 5 pick. 

Pick 12: (Sky) AJ Brown (WR, PHI)

  • There are a number of players that could round out our first round. AJB feels right after a WR4 finish overall and WR6 in PPRPPG. He was 3rd in receiving yards but had just 7 TDs. My only “concern” is that he fell off to end the season as the Eagles lost their way as a team. AJB was WR2 from Weeks 1-9, but after a bye in Week 10, he was WR24 from Weeks 11-17. We’ll see if the “tush-push, aka Brotherly Shove,” gets ruled out next season, which could open more passing opportunities. I assume Jalen Hurts and AJB will get back on the same page through the NFL playoffs and over the off-season, but for now, I’m tempering expectations until I see the evidence. 

 

For more from Sky and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @skyguasco.