2025 WRs – Understanding Recency Bias

I have two drafts already in the books, and another one starting this week.  On the calendar for July 28^th is RazzBowl7 drafts, and I cannot wait!  We are still accepting entrants, so get in as soon as you can.  Today, we will look at WRs that put up exciting or disappointing numbers in 2024 that we need to consider for 2025 while understanding recency bias and how that can affect our decision-making process in fantasy football drafts.  To start, let’s define ‘recency bias’.  In essence, recency bias leads individuals to give greater importance to recent events/information over older events/information.  Perhaps more importantly, you need to understand how your opponent’s recency bias mind operates.  What players will rocket up draft boards based on excellent 2024 stats and which WRs will fall based on some form of a lackluster performance last season. 

For our loyal Razzball article readers and podcast listeners, we are adding a Razzball G-League and a Razzball Listeners League (PPR re-draft).  Keep commenting on our 2025 articles for a chance to be selected for one of these new invite-only leagues.  Additionally, we are starting up weekly podcasts this week where we will start selecting listeners for open slots in our new leagues.  Check out all the @Razzball NFL writers as we host our You Tube podcasts where we chat all things off-season fantasy football, fantasy football draft season, and maybe weave in some music and pop culture chatter.  Join Sky @SkyGuasco, The Lineup Builder @Derek_Favret, Jeff @Jefferson__21, Dave @crewser128, Ben @FantasyFirstDwn and me, Matt @stiles08 on as we answer your questions thus keeping you informed for the 2025 draft season.  Come for the analysis and stay for the laughs!

WRs That May Be Overvalued

• Player: Terry McLaurin
• Team: Washington Commanders
• Current (early) ADP: WR18, Overall 37

Finishing as the WR7 in 2024, McLaurin flashed a career season, especially with 13 TDs (second only to Ja’Marr Chase).  The Commanders were fun to watch with their dynamic rookie QB with Scary Terry being the recipient of most of the targets for the offense.  I list McLaurin as overvalued heading in 2025 based on potential (probable) regression at the QB position and complaints from McLaurin regarding his current contract in which he is slated to earn $25M.  What we want to see is a repeat of 2024 versus the beginning of another NFL WR diva situation.  Those three things: (1) Career year (history says he will not replicate 13 TDs), (2) Sophomore QB regression, and (3) Diva-like drama already in play drive McLaurin down enough that someone with recency bias will draft him earlier than I am willing to do.

• Player: Jerry Jeudy
• Team: Cleveland Browns
• Current (early) ADP: WR30, Overall 65

The Browns WR1 finished as WR13 in 2024 with 90 receptions for 1,229 yards and 4 TDs.  To me, Jeudy’s 2024 stats had much more to do with QB play than it did the WR separating himself from the pack.  With that being where I plant my flag today, please know the current QB depth chart in Cleveland begins with Kenny Pickett.  Yes, the same Kenny Pickett that has done next to nothing in the NFL.  I believe if Pickett, Shadeur Sanders, or Dillon Gabriel start under center for the Browns, then Jeudy’s stats will go in the dumper.  Now, if our old friend Joe Flacco can wrangle the starting QB job from the youngsters, then add me to the list of fantasy managers coveting Jerry Jeudy.  At the time of this article, Flacco is not starting, therefore I will not allow the Jameis Winston-Jerry Jeudy stats to affect my 2025 draft board. 

WRs That May Be Undervalued

• Player: Rome Odunze
• Team: Chicago Bears
• Current (early) ADP: WR39, Overall 82

As a Packers fan, I am normally not allowed to discuss positive aspects of the football team from Chicago.  Alas, this is fantasy football, so all players are open for discussion.  Second year ‘can’t miss QB’ plus second year, 1^st round WR should be a recipe for success.  Rumors out of training camp are that Odunze and Caleb Williams are building a rapport while DJ Moore (WR21, Overall 45) is falling behind in Ben Johnson’s new offense.  Let someone else pay up for Moore while you take the Odunze discount almost 40 picks later.  Were you aware that Odunze finished behind Jaylen Waddle’s career worst season, Alec Pierce who had more than 5 receptions only once in 2024, Michael Pittman Jr who played through a broken back, Wan’Dale Robinson who averaged less than eight yards per catch on 93 receptions, and Keenan Allen who somehow commanded 121 targets?  Trust when I say, Odunze is poised to take over the WR1 spot in Chicago with Keenan Allen gone and DJ Moore slated more for the short passing game targets.  Even with Odunze playing for the Chicago Bears, I am all-in in 2025 for the second year break-out!

• Player: George Pickens
• Team: Dallas Cowboys
• Current (early) ADP: WR33, Overall 71

Pickens is an elite talent with a chance to prove the Steelers did not use him to his fullest ability.  Add that to the fact he will be facing the CB2 with CeeDee Lamb requiring the best CB to cover him from the jump.  Add to those two things the Cowboys presenting a bottom third running game (Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Jaydon Blue).  Dak Prescott loves to throw the football, so let’s cut him loose and see what The Lamb-Pickens combo can do for our fantasy teams.  Nearing the end of the 3^rd tier of WRs is a spot I will pounce on Pickens over names liked Calvin Ridley, Jaylen Waddle, Travis Hunter, Chris Olave, and Deebo Samuel.

Let me know where you think I am right and wrong with the list of ‘WR Bargain at Current ADP’.  Also, follow me @stiles08 on Twitter/X and send questions comments at the bottom of this article.  Make sure you jump around the Razzball site for all your fantasy football needs.

-Stiles-