We know that betting on preseason games is a little more complicated than betting on regular-season games. In the regular season, you at least have a good idea of who will play. In preseason you have to discern who will get the most playing time. You are attacking defenses playing their second or third string against an offense playing their second or third string.
There are many questions to ask. Will the starters play? How long if they are going to play? Do pregame depth charts matter in the preseason? Why does Kyle Shanahan hate fantasy football? Either way, we have to find our way, and here are four defenses to attack in the second week of preseason games.
Of course, there is the spread and the over/under. Naturally, for preseason games, the over/under bets are based on whether the “house” thinks the first, second, or third-string offenses are playing and who they are against. So, here we are, Week 2 of the preseason, getting ready to attack some defenses. Who are the four most vulnerable defenses to attack this week?
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants, Carolina -3, o/u 39.5
The New York Jets defensive line routinely beat the Panthers’ offensive line last week. It resulted in five total sacks, four on Matt Corral and one on Bryce Young.
Young played 23% of the offensive snaps, and Corral played 77%. Young finished 4-of-6, 21 yards, and one sack. Corral finished 15-of-22, 126 yards, one interception, and four sacks. Head coach Frank Reich stated before the Week 1 game that backup quarterback Andy Dalton did not need many preseason snaps. That explains the splits between Young and Corral. It hopefully explains the splits that will happen in Week 2.
The Giants’ defense last week allowed 328 yards and 21 points on 69 plays. Their pass rush recorded one sack. And they only have four completely healthy reserves at defensive tackle and defensive end. Attack the Giants’ defense in the Week 2 preseason game. Young will likely start at quarterback but only play long enough to get a better result than last week.
Play Corral, who played the most snaps of any offensive player last week.
The problem is going to be who to correlate with Corral. Reich mixed and matched his offensive weapons.
Spencer Brown had the most rushing attempts (8) for 34 yards while playing on 42% of the offensive snaps. Javon Wims had the most targets (7) but only had two receptions for 23 yards while playing 65% of the offensive snaps.
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Commanders, Baltimore -3.5, o/u 38.5
The Ravens are riding a 24-preseason win streak. Harbaugh put in backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to start the second half to keep the streak alive. Huntley played on 37% of the offensive passes.
It was necessary after both Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown proved inept. Brown played 26% of the offensive snaps. He completed only 37.5% of his passes for 0.9 net yards per pass attempt (NY/A). Johnson played on 37% of the snaps. He completed 66.7% of his passes for only 3.4 NY/A but did throw a touchdown.
Johnson worked the first half. He completed five drives, with three of the drives resulting in three and outs. In the second half, Huntley played the same number of snaps in two drives. He was more efficient before he left the game.
Last week the Cleveland Browns’ offense averaged 5.4 yards per play against Washington. Browns’ quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson went nine-of-10 for 102 yards and one touchdown. He finished the game with a 142.5 quarterback rating. Thompson-Robinson was listed as the third quarterback on the depth chart.
Attack the anemic Commanders’ defense with Johnson and add running back Keaton Mitchell and wide receiver Sean Ryan. Mitchell played 29% of the offensive snaps leading all running backs. The Ravens know what they have in Gus Edwards, Melvin Gordon and Justice Hill. Mitchell was the least effective back, with six carries for 11 yards: that’s a 1.8 average. It appears the Ravens want Mitchell to succeed, so having him play a lot in preseason should be the approach.
Ryan led the receivers with seven targets. He finished with four receptions and 37 yards. His longest reception was for 11 yards.
Attack the Commanders’ defense and count on Harbaugh’s desire to keep the streak alive.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions, Jacksonville -4, o/u 39.5
The lines on this game have moved toward Detroit slightly. The line started with Jacksonville at 4.5 and the over/under 38.5. The teams have two joint practices scheduled ahead of Saturday’s game. Jacksonville’s head coach Doug Pederson has stated that the starters will get the bulk of the reps Wednesday and Thursday, but he hasn’t decided the playing time for Saturday.
Last year in Week 2 of the preseason, quarterback Trevor Lawrence attempted 21 passes. The two backups combined had 21 passes. Last week Lawrence was on the field for 13 snaps and went five-for-six, 36 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Running back Tank Bigsby made a preseason splash. He had the most carries and averaged 5.8 yards per carry, with nine carries. D’Ernest Johnson had five carries and averaged 6.2 yards per carry.
The Jaguars played their starters on the first two offensive series. After the Dallas Cowboys punt returner KaVontae Turpin fumbled the Jaguars, starters went in for one more series.
The Lions will likely play new quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, a late signing who started practicing with the team Monday. Starting quarterback Jared Goff has not played in week two or three of the preseason since 2017.
Nate Sudfeld had most of the playing time last week, but he threw two interceptions and was 15-of-28 for the game. The current depth chart lists Bridgewater as QB2 and rookie Hendon Hooker as QB3. Sudfeld is now listed as QB4.
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Attack the Lions’ defense in Week 2. This defense allowed New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito to pass for 155 yards with a touchdown. Look for Bigsby to continue preseason dominance, and in the receiving game, three receivers tied for three targets. Snoop Conner had seven carries to go with his three targets. Unfortunately, he wasn’t efficient on either side and had one fumble. Conner will need to redeem himself in Week 2.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons, Atlanta -6.5, 38.5 o/u
Important update from Atlanta Falcons camp:
Bijan Robinson's name
🗣️Is technically pronounced bih-ZHAN
🗣️He, like most of us, says BEE-zhan
🗣️His mom says bih-ZHAN, and doesn't like all these people calling her son the wrong name
So, fans, good either way, but might make mom mad. pic.twitter.com/eOXIJz6mbD— Justin Felder (@Justin_FOX5) August 14, 2023
Attack Cincinnati’s porous preseason defense. The Bengals gave up 36 points to the Green Bay Packers last week. The Packers scored in every quarter.
In their first preseason game, Atlanta beat the Miami Dolphins, mostly on their defense. The Falcons defense collected three sacks and five sacks against Miami. This a public service announcement to not play Trevor Siemian or Jake Browning.
Atlanta’s head coach Arthur Smith said he would play his starters in Week 2. In Week 1, the Falcons went with quarterback Logan Woodside the whole game. So, there should be a Desmond Ridder and Bijan Robinson sighting, but for how long, we don’t know.
Woodside had 146 passing yards on 14 attempts with 23 completions. He was also sacked four times. Your attack should concentrate on the Falcons’ rushing game (insert your surprise face here). Goodwin Igwebuike averaged 5.4 yards per carry while carrying the ball 13 times for 70 yards and one touchdown.
Looking Back
Last week I was completely wrong about the Las Vegas Raiders defense. Welcome to the party, boys. This week we’ll do better.
For more content (not just mine), check me out on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And for any content you hope to absorb, come to Razzball. Come for the content and stay for the podcasts.
