What’s going on everyone, and welcome to the final post of my Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts series, where today I’ll be taking a look at the WR position.
Let’s get to it!
Sleepers
Jamison Crowder (ADP: 10.08)
While Kirk Cousins once again finished inside of the Top-12 in fantasy last season, it didn’t really translate too well for his receivers, especially Jamison Crowder. Crowder finished the 2017 season with only 789 receiving yards and 3 TD’s (granted he was battling some hamstring issues). However, most of his production came in the second half of the season, after the injuries of both Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson, and the inefficiency of Terrelle Pryor.
A lot has changed in Washington over the course of one offseason. First off, Kirk Cousins left town, and was replaced by Alex Smith. Second, the Redskins also brought in Paul Richardson, who should be Smith’s primary deep threat. And even though Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are still in this offense, they don’t seem to remain healthy for a full 16 games. With 25% of the Redskins targets available this season, Crowder should be one of Smith’s favorite targets to count in the middle of the field, and should easily pay off his ADP with his sheer PPR volume.
Michael Gallup (ADP: 15.10)
At the start of the summer, it wasn’t looking great for Gallup’s fantasy stock. With the addition of Allen Hurns to complement Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams, it didn’t seem like Gallup would make a lot of noise in his rookie season. However, things started to change in June and July.
Not only have there been reports that Gallup has built some chemistry with Dak Prescott, but he’s also taken some first-team reps in Training Camp, especially in the redzone, where the Cowboys seem to be very confident he’ll active in. Gallup was a very successful receiver at Colorado State, and could find his way in an offense that has a whopping 272 targets available thanks to the departures of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. With an ADP in the 15th round, Gallup is a great low-risk, high-reward lottery ticket as your 5th or 6th receiver.
Cameron Meredith (ADP: 16.08)
In 2016, Meredith was a fantasy lottery ticket as he came from absolutely nowhere to finish the season with 66 catches for 888 yards and 4 TD’s. Unfortunately, he didn’t play a single snap in 2017 after he tore both his ACL and MCL in the 3rd preseason game.
Despite not playing in a year, Meredith is still just 25 years old, and out to prove that 2016 wasn’t a fluke. He can’t do that with Chicago however, as the Bears elected to sign Allen Robinson instead of Meredith. With the departure of Willie Snead, the Saints decided to snag Meredith, and will likely use him as Drew Brees’ primary slot wideout. He should beat out Brandon Coleman easily, and settle in as the Saints’ WR2 opposite of Michael Thomas. After a season with Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley and Jay Cutler, Meredith should be even more productive in the Saints offense, and has a bunch of late-round upside with an ADP in the 16th round.
Breakouts
Corey Davis (ADP: 7.10)
You know it was a rough year when your most productive game came in the playoffs, and it was exactly like that for Corey Davis in his rookie year last season. While he was highly targeted, some tough hamstring issues led him to only finishing with 34 receptions for 375 yards and no TD’s.
However, with the coaching change to Mike Vrabel and Matt LaFleur, it’s looking like Davis could be in for a great 2018 season. Besides from the veteran presences of Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews, there isn’t anyone else for Mariota to turn to. There’s huge potential for Davis to prove why he was drafted, and comes in with a solid price in the later stages of the 7th round.
Cooper Kupp (ADP: 9.10)
As the primary slot receiver for L.A. in 2017, Kupp did quite well for himself in his rookie season, catching 62 passes for 869 yards and 5 TD’s, with a whopping 14.02 yards/target, consistenly become a WR3/Flex option most weeks.
While the Rams were pretty loaded, Kupp finished with a nice 19% target share. While I believed it could go up with the departure of Sammy Watkins, I was immediately disappointed when the Rams then grabbed Brandin Cooks. While his target share probably won’t go up that much, it’s great that there is room to grow in his overall efficiency and TD-rate. Besides, even if he plays exactly like he did last year, I’d gladly take that production in the late-9th round.
Busts
Tyreek Hill (ADP: 3.10)
I’ve talked a lot about Hill and Cooper, so I’ll keep this section short, but for both of these players, I’m not in love with their current prices. For Hill, while I do like the idea of his upside playing with Patrick Mahomes, he’s still very raw, and also building some nice chemistry with Sammy Watkins. With an ADP in the middle to late 3rd round in most drafts, I don’t see myself actively targeting him as my #2 WR.
Amari Cooper (ADP: 4.07)
It’s really hard to trust Amari Cooper after the seasons he’s had in the NFL, and with the addition of Jordy Nelson, who has been getting some rave reviews all offseason, Cooper’s red-zone share could be even smaller than it already was. I don’t have too much confidence in the Raiders passing offense in 2018, and I don’t think I’m going to target Cooper.
Alright guys, that is all my time for today. Thank you for reading my work all offseason, and especially this past series. I can’t wait for the NFL regular season, which you can find my content here on Wednesday’s (rankings post) and Saturday’s (Start/Sit column). And as always, if you have a question or comment, don’t hesitate to leave one below!
You Can Find Zach on Twitter @razzball_zach
