Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey.
Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 9, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 72 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.
Market Share of Air Yards: Top 5 in Week 8
These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 8.
Tyler Lockett (134 air yards, 74.0%) – Well this is interesting. Lockett had been buried at the bottom of this list for a number of weeks, and how he explodes to the top. His 134 air yards were fifth on the week and the 142 receiving yards ranked third. Hopefully this is an appetizer for what is to come when Russell Wilson returns in Week 10 or 11. But if you don’t have the appetite for inconsistency, this is a good selling window.
Tyreek Hill (182 air yards, 56.9%) – Ho hum. Just another 182 air yard, 18 target, 12 catch, 94-yard, one touchdown week for Hill. But in all seriousness, it’s good to see him put together these kinds of weeks even when the Kansas City offense is struggling collectively. The 18 targets are abnormal, but roughly 100 yards and a score are normal here.
Darnell Mooney (155 air yards, 56.6%) – Let’s see, third in air yards share and third in total air yards. But only 27th in receiving yards with 64. This is going to be the life with Justin Field for a while until he develops into a better downfield passer. Fields currently ranks 25th in deep ball completion percentage among quarterbacks.
John Ross (73 air yards, 56.2%) – Once you notice Ross’ air yards total is about 50 yards shy of anyone else on this list, you’ll be less enthusiastic about the performance. This was also a performance from attrition against the Chiefs as both Sterling Shepard and Kadarious Toney again left with an injury, as did Dante Pettis.
Jarvis Landry (121 air yards, 54.5%) – Welcome back from the IR, Landry, we will get you slotted right back into the offense. Your welcome back gift is a quarterback who can’t move and is unable to use one whole side of this body at the moment. Still, Landry getting back to double-digit targets and a target share around 30% is a welcome site to his manager. But don’t expect the aDOT of 12.7 to continue. The air yards will come down soon.
Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20
These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.
Allen Robinson (30 air yards, 10.9%) – This is officially rock bottom. Just 21 receiving yards in Week 8 following 16 receiving yards last week. And he’s not even getting uncatchable targets. Robinson is getting four targets per game with an aDOT below 10 yards.
DK Metcalf (34 air yards, 18.8%) – The equal and opposite reaction to Tyler Lockett’s spike week. There is, after all, a limit to a passing offense helmed by Geno Smith. Supporting two alpha receivers? I think not.
Jerry Jeudy (36 air yards, 20.5%) – We will just call this his “ease him back in” week. With Jeudy coming off an injury and the Washington Football Team just wrecking people at the line on Sunday, it’s a wonder Jeudy was able to get even four targets. Better days are ahead, especially with Noah Fant potentially missing time.
Positive Regression Candidate
Negative Regression Candidate
Deebo Samuel (89 air yards, 171 receiving yards) – This is not to say that Deebo Samuel will begin to have a bad season. Not at all. He is clearly the receiving alpha on this team, and even George Kittle’s imminent return shouldn’t impact that. But we should pump the brakes on more 170+ receiving yard expectations for a couple reasons.
First, Samuel did lead the week in receiving yards, but he was just 19th in air yards. That means a lot of yards after the catch. Only Chris Godwin had more YAC in Week 8, but he had three more targets and two more catches than Samuel.
Second, Deebo’s aDOT was right at 10 yards in Week 8. That is about 1.7 yards higher than his season average. You usually only see the elite downfield threats with that combination of aDOT plus YAC. Players like Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Davante Adams fit that mold this year.
The only other week Samuel had an aDOT at 10+ yards this year was Week 4, when he had 156 receiving yards on three more targets and two more receptions.
Kupp Check
This is the weekly place where we check how Cooper Kupp is breaking the air yards model.
Kupp was merely great in Week 8 instead of “we-have-to-name-a-wing-of-the-Hall-of-Fame-after-him” elite. We are so used to him being a week-winner by now that when he gets “only” nine targets, seven catches, 115 receiving yards, and a score we are disappointed.
But fear not, the targets remained high, the aDOT stayed hear 10 (9.2, to be exact), and the Rams took their foot off the gas pretty early in this one as they were predictably stomping the Houston Texans.
Kupp has Godwin (361 YAC) and Samuel (325 YAC) trying to overtake Kupp from his perch atop the yards after catch rank (366 YAC), but the league-leading volume (90 targets) should keep Kupp on top of the air yards mold-breaking list.
Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards
Ja’Marr Chase (29 air yards, 32 receiving yards) – This game turned into an unexpected shootout, so this is a surprising name to see pop up. But Chase still led the team in targets (nine), and had an aDOT (3.2) that is a full 10 yards below his season average (13.2). Screams fluke to me. I’m still all in.
Robby Anderson (21 air yards, 0 receiving yards) – It’s over. I’m calling it. Time of death: about 4:15 PM ET on Sunday, October 31. Anderson is survived by an incompetent offense that is floundering without Christian McCaffrey and a pair of wide receiver gloves that consistently let him down.
Laviska Shenault (19 air yards, 13 receiving yards) – Why give Shenault targets when you can spread them out to Dan Arnold, Carlos Hyde, and Jamal Agnew? What a waste this Jaguars team is. Shenault should be getting double the targets he saw in Week 8 (four) each and every game. But I have no confidence it will happen.
