Air Yards

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What are air yards, you say? The name kind of gives it away, doesn’t it? Air yards, irreverently discussed in this air yards primer, matter because we actually get some context of how much a quarterback WANTED to get their receiver the ball, not just how often the receiver could catch it. It’s a stat that gives us much more clarity on what went right and what went wrong in a given team’s passing attack.

This column will dissect air yards each week, looking for actionable info in the coming weeks. Looking ahead to Week 9, we will analyze the list of the 61 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

Market Share of Air Yards: Top Five in Week 8

These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 8.

Cooper Kupp (89 air yards, 63.6%) – It’s been a while since Kupp has been in the top five of this list, much less number one. But you can see from Kupp’s 89 Air Yards compared to the other AY totals on this list that the Los Angeles Rams’ offense is a bit dysfunctional at the moment. Matthew Stafford’s 187 passing yards on Sunday was the lowest of his career for any game with 22 or more completions.

Damiere Byrd (174 air yards, 61.1%) – Welcome to the party Damiere Byrd! In the two years we have been running this column, Byrd has never shown up, but his down-the-field ability was what the Falcons needed in a shootout with the Panthers on Sunday. A 47-yard touchdown bomb and overtime certainly helped contribute here, but he and Kyle Pitts both overshadowed a struggling Drake London.

D.J. Moore (247 air yards, 60.8%) – It’s back-to-back weeks in the top five for Moore, who seems to have been unlocked by new quarterback P.J. Walker. There is just no way they can turn back now, not with the offensive success of the last two weeks. Moore’s 247 air yards are second only to Chris Olave’s 331 in Week 2.

Terry McLaurin (105 air yards, 59.3%) – McLaurin has similarly been activated by a new quarterback over the last two games, with two straight weeks over 95 air yards and over 53% air yards share. He still only has one score in the previous seven weeks because the Manders are going to Mander, but Scary Terry’s yards are up three straight weeks, and he is back in the WR2 conversation.

A.J. Brown (189 air yards, 58.9%) – What else can we say? 189 air yards, almost 60% air yards share, and a 37% target share in Week 8? And he was a shoelace away from scoring four touchdowns? God Bless the Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown pairing.

Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20

These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.

Courtland Sutton (30 air yards, 10.8% air yards share) – The combined air yards for Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and all Denver running backs didn’t come close to reaching the air yards that Greg Dulcich got over in London in Week 8 (114 air yards). Is this a new trend or just a fluke? The Jaguars are a top-ten team against tight ends this year, so this looks like a specific effort by Russell Wilson to get him the ball. Meanwhile, the rest of the wide receivers continue to suffer in this dysfunctional offense.

Chris Godwin (42 air yards, 12.2% air yards share) – Things that matter to me: Godwin’s second straight week with over 90% snaps. Three straight weeks of more than 10 targets. Three out of four weeks with a yards per reception greater than 10 yards. The low air yards number doesn’t matter to me because he is getting peppered with targets. Now, is Tom Brady washed? Is he out hunting for girls on Saturday nights now? These are things Chris Godwin managers need to know.

Devonta Smith (37 air yards, 11.5% air yards share) – When you have a wide receiver opposite you that has a game like A.J. Brown did, you just have to hope the quarterback looks your way for some of those throws the next game. Smith still had a very healthy 26.7% target share in this one, but Brown got the long balls after he consistently exposed the defense.

Positive Regression Candidate

DK Metcalf (148 air yards, 55 receiving yards) – This is about as fluky of an air yards game as you will ever see from a player of D.K. Metcalf’s caliber. His targets (10) were great. The receptions were fine (six). But the catches went for just 55 yards despite Metcalf being bombarded downfield on his other targets.

Those targets didn’t connect, and that’s fine. He scored a touchdown to make up for it. Those passes will fall incomplete more often than not in future games. In Sunday’s win over the Giants, Geno Smith was very good, completing 23 of 34 passes for 212 yards and two scores. And there were four players in Seattle who had a longer reception than Metcalf, including guys like Travis Homer and Noah Fant. Fluky.

The long passes are Metcalf’s territory, and he should be back to catching Geno bombs as soon as Week 9 against the Cardinals.

Negative Regression Candidate

Garrett Wilson (57 air yards, 115 receiving yards) – Garrett Wilson has had a lot of things moving in his favor recently, so this is by no means a long-term regression alert. But we still have to be concerned if he keeps getting less than 60 air yards. Much of Wilson’s production came on a 54-yard catch and run earlier in the game. His other five catches went for just 61 yards.

But Corey Davis is constantly banged up, Elijah Moore is persona non grata in New York, and Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims are just nice complimentary pieces. Wilson’s typical 20%-25% target share is good-not-great, so I will be looking for him to take advantage of additional opportunities in the games ahead.

Tyler Conklin poses a little bit of a problem, as does the run-heavy approach of the Jets’ offense. But it’s clear so far that Zach Wilson prefers Wilson out of all of his wide receivers.

Deebo Watch

This is the weekly place where we check how Deebo Samuel is producing compared to his model-breaking 2021 season.

Attendance is part of the grade in fantasy football, so Deebo fails this week’s test as he was forced to sit out due to injury. But it gives us a brief moment to look at some comparative numbers from this year compared to last. Through eight weeks of 2022, Deebo has played in 351 snaps and drawn a 24.8% target share for 387 receiving yards and two scores. Through eight weeks of 2021, he played 363 snaps with a 33% target share, 819 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.

In essentially the same number of snaps, Samuel has half the production in 2022.

In rushing stats, it comes out to 24 attempts for 138 yards and one score this season. He had six attempts for 22 yards and a score through eight weeks last year. It wasn’t until Week 9 when he really started pouring it on with his rushing totals. Through the last eight games of 2021, Samuel had 53 rush attempts for 343 yards and seven touchdowns.

Do we see that kind of second-half rushing production again? It’s unlikely with Christian McCaffrey now on the squad. It may be about time to admit defeat on the second-round tag it cost to acquire Samuel this season. Injury combined with the outlier yards after catch (YAC) season he had last year has seen him crashing back down with regression.

Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards

Darnell Mooney (29 air yards, 70 receiving yards) – Mooney did catch all five of his targets and made some nice run after the catch plays to get his 70 receiving yards. But the Cowboys were blanketing him all game and not allowing much else. Better days are ahead now that Chase Claypool can line up opposite Mooney and take some of the top-level defense his way.

Rondale Moore (23 air yards, 92 receiving yards) – He had a comically low 2.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in this game, but that’s fine because now the Cardinals have De’Andre Hopkins and Zach Ertz drawing the defense down the field. Moore can take his short targets and burn up the field to the tune of almost 100 yards. I predict we will see a lot of this in the second half of the season.

Zay Jones (23 air yards, 28 receiving yards) – Just as Trevor Lawrence has come crashing back down to earth, so have all the Jacksonville receivers. Do you trust him in a revenge game against the Raiders this weekend? I don’t think I can go there unless I’m desperate.