Week 7 DFS and Prop Plays

I missed you all last week.  Work travel had me tied up more than I prefer and wasn’t able to put this article together.  I did cash on a few props but overall didn’t play much.  Now I’m back with another round of DFS and Prop plays for Week 7.  There are some juicy matchups just waiting for us to capitalize so read on and see what I have ready for you. 

Before you scroll down though, I’m going to kick the podium again because it’s working for me.  Razzball has both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props.  Below you’ll find my high-end and low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups.  Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.

One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE.  I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):

• Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
• Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
• Home/Road Player Splits tool
• Win/Loss Player Splits tool
• TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool

Paying Up

• Player: Jordan Love
• Game: Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
• DK: $6,900 / FD: $8,700

I’m going back to the well on this one.  Jordan Love and the Packers host the Texans where as our Home/Road Player Splits tool points out, Love is 7% better playing at the not-yet frozen tundra.  Looking at the DEF vs QB matchups, the Texans are 6^th worst in allowing fantasy points to QBs and 2^nd worst in allowing TDs.  Contrast that with Love coming off two of his last three games where he’s thrown 4 TD passes.  This is one of the higher predicted total scores for a reason.  You may want a piece of the action.   

• Player: Bijan Robinson
• Game: Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
• DK: $7,100 / FD: $8,200

If you’re going to pay up for RB this week, Bijan is my play.  The Seahawks fly across country with a defense that ranks 2^nd worst in our Adjusted Line Yard metric this week.  This means the Falcons O-Line is expected to get more push and allow a RB like Bijan to get further before first contact.  Our Home/Road Player Splits tool also indicates Bijan scores 16% more at home as well.  Averaging four targets per game and coming off a 2-TD outing doesn’t hurt either.                 

• Player: Jameson Williams
• Team: Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
• DK: $6,000 / FD: $6,500

Our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool confirms the Vikings give up the most fantasy points per game (44.5) to WRs and the third-most fantasy points per game to wideouts (25.6).  As our Defensive NFL Targets Allowed tool points out, that’s due largely by the fact that opposing WRs are getting targeted 68% of the time.  For Detroit, that is great news for Jameson Williams who is scoring almost 75% of his fantasy points from the wideout position.  Can you say, “blowing the cover off the defense”?     

• Player: George Kittle
• Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
• DK: $6,000 / FD: $7,500

If you plan to spend up on TE, look no further than George Kittle.  Kittle and the 49ers host the worst defense vs TE out there, and it’s not even close.  TEs versus the Chiefs are scoring two more fantasy points per game (10.4) on average than the next closest defense (remember Isaiah Likely’s week 1 performance?).  To make matters worse for the Chiefs, Kittle comes in as the #1 scoring TE in football.  This is a close to a slam dunk as we get.                      

Bargain Shopping

• Player: Drake Maye
• Game: New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
• DK: $5,300 / FD: $7,200

Do you believe in Drake Maye in his second NFL start?  Well, it helps that he faces the most generous defense vs QBs in the NFL.  QBs are scoring an average of 5+ fantasy points more than the next team.  That includes more than 285 passing yards and 2 TDs per game.  Odds are he’ll earn his salary and then some.

• Player: Tank Bigsby
• Game: New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
• DK: $5,800 / FD: $6,900

Staying in London, Tank Bigsby is in line to benefit from the 4^th best matchup in our Adjusted Line Yard metric.  If you’re worried about D’Ernest Johnson taking work away from Tank, don’t be.  Johnson is primarily a passing down back, since the Jags fell behind early, and the game script here should be more in line with what we saw versus the Colts in Week 5 (13 rushes for 101 yards).  You won’t see Bigsby in the Prop Plays below chasing another 2 TDs but 80 yeards and a TD seems realistic to me.           

• Player: Jordan Addison
• Team: Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
• DK: $5,600 / FD: $6,300

Our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows the Lions DEF allowing the 2^nd most fantasy points to WRs, evenly split between slot and wideouts.  Jordan Addison primarily does his damage out wide (95% fantasy scoring) while Justin Jefferson is more an even split.  Which of the two draws the most coverage?  Like we saw in Green Bay in Week 4, Addison can easily earn his DFS salary on any play and his target share also went up in Week 5 right before the bye week.  It stands to reason the Vikings have a game plan with Addison featured a little more.  Grab him here before his cost starts to go up.       

• Player: Cade Otton
• Team: Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• DK: $3,600 / FD: $5,400

Bobby and I talked about his one on our Wednesday night show.  A quick look at our Defensive NFL Targets Allowed tool shows the Ravens allow the 6^th most TE targets in the league.  That is translating to the 2^nd most yards per game (73) on average and T-5^th most fantasy points.  For Otton, our TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool indicates he’s being targeted almost 25% in the RZ over the last 13 games with Baker at QB.  He’s also topped 40 yards receiving in three of the last four.  For a low-cost TE option, he’s looks to be a good play. 

Prop Plays

Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore.  Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay.  Share your favorites in the comments below.  

Jalen Hurts (Rush Yards, Anytime TD):  Normally I look at passing props here, but I can’t pass up this one.  The Giants give up the 3^rd most QB rushing yards in the NFL.  QBs are averaging almost 7 yards per rush here.  Hurts’ rushing prop is currently 36.5 yards, which may seem high until you consider he’s averaging over 11 rushing attempts per game this season.  So, 11 rushing attempts, 7 yards per carry…you do the math!    

Chuba Hubbard (Rushing or Rush + Receiving): With Jonathan Brooks’ return on the horizon, this may be the last time I target Hubbard so let’s go out with a bang.  Our adjusted line yard metric gives the nod to Carolina RBs as the 3^rd best of the week.  Hubbard is maintaining the bulk of the work and is averaging 102 yards and 5 targets per game over the last four contests.  I prefer the Rush + Receiving props generally but he’s currently at 93.5, which is a little risky.  His 69.5 yard Rush prop seems more likely to hit.             

David Montgomery (Rushing Yards, Anytime TD):  Nothing is a sure thing in sports betting, except David Montgomery with an Anytime TD.  He has rushing TDs in every game so far and I’m here to say the streak doesn’t change this week.  The Lions RBs draw a top 10 matchup in our adjusted line yards metric versus the Vikings and like I said, Montgomery always seems to find the end zone.  His rushing yards prop is 50.5, which is a not too bad but a touch high for my liking.  I’ll probably go with one of his Alt Rush Yards numbers paired with an Anytime TD for a modest win.  

A.J. Brown (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD):  A.J. Brown is set up for a monster game.  The Giants allow 70% of WR scoring out wide and Brown scores 76% of his points out there.  The main thing is he’s healthy and the Eagles are becoming desperate for wins.  Whether you take him alone or pair him with Hurts like I did, this one feels like a gimme.        

Mike Evans (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD):  While everyone is jumping back on the Chris Godwin bandwagon, for good reason, Evans seems to be the forgotten guy these days.  Well, you’ll be good to remember him this week.  Our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows the Ravens Defense allowing the 3^rd most WR scoring, with 62% coming out wide.  Godwin is the primary slot WR and Evans scores more out wide.           

Malik Nabers (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): Malik Nabers has cleared concussion protocol and is on track to return this weekend against a generous Philly Defense versus WRs.  Nabers has been fantastic in his rookie campaign, surpassing 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards in two of four games.  He also has three TDs to his name so far.  His current receptions and yard props are 6.5 and 72.5, respectively.  He’s surpassed both in three of four games, and just missed each in the other one.      

George Kittle (Receptions, Yards & Anytime TD):  The bar may go up between now and Sunday, where his O/U are currently 4.5 (Rec) and 51.5 (Rec Yds) on DK.  Taking these numbers as an example, he’s gone over the receiving and yards numbers in 3 of 5 games, and very close in the other two.  If you want to take a ride with me on this one, that 3-leg prop is paying +218.  I’m in.     

That’s All Folks

Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting.  Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us.  Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.  

As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com.  Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show.  Come for the insight, stay for the fun!

Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. 

Until next time, my friends!