Last week we discussed the five players you should avoid if you don’t want to lose your league. But let’s face it, as the great man said, “if you ain’t first, you’re last.” So now I’m going to break down five early-round league winners.
Christian McCaffrey – ADP: Pick 1.11, My Rank: RB3
Yes, there’s a massive amount of injury risk with Christian McCaffrey. But our goal isn’t to avoid losing our league, it’s to win it. And if CMC stays healthy, he will be an absolute bargain at the back half of the first round. He’s a lock to finish as a top three running back, having finished as a top two back in every healthy season since 2017. Everything out of San Francisco suggests McCaffrey is fully healthy, looks great and will receive all the touches he can handle. CMC is my RB3 and should go as a Top 5 pick in 2WR half-PPR leagues. And if you’re really worried about his health, simply pick up Isaac Guerendo in the double digit rounds. In fact, you should probably do that anyway.
Malik Nabers – ADP: Pick 1.12, My Rank: WR5
Malik Nabers represents tremendous value at the end of the first round, as I think he has the real potential to be a top three wide receiver with the WR1 title not totally out of the question. As a rookie, Nabers was the clear focal point of the Giants offense, turning 170 targets into a WR6 finish. But he was badly handicapped by awful quarterbacking, leading to truly dismal efficiency. Give Nabers the yards-per-target rate of any other Top 10 receiver and you have a Top 3 WR. Russell Wilson isn’t anything special but he’s a big step up from Tommy DeVito. So, I’m backing Nabers to make the big second year jump and win you your leagues along the way. For me, he should be taken any time after the 7th pick, maybe earlier, depending on your league settings.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – ADP: Late Round 3, My Rank: WR10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the WR7 last year, but he’s being drafted in the late third round, often falling to the fourth, as the 14th wide receiver off the board. Now I’d understand that if things had changed for the worse in Seattle. But for me, everything has been a positive for JSN. Sam Darnold is a definitively better passer than Geno Smith, DK Metcalf has been replaced by Cooper Kupp, who is a shadow of the hulking receiver in more ways than one these days, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the new Tyler Lockett. Yikes! All signs point to more targets, more production, and probably some positive touchdown regression after only six scores last year. I’d happily take Smith-Njigba late in the second round in some leagues, but will wait ‘til the early third because why not? He’ll still be there! In fact, if I don’t have JSN in the majority of my leagues, I’ll be very surprised.
George Kittle – ADP: Early Round 4, My Rank: TE1
George Kittle was the TE1 last season, despite playing two fewer games than Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. In fact, he averaged two points more per game! But Bowers and McBride are going in the second round, while you can get Kittle twice as far into your draft. Make it make sense! This is my favorite value of the draft. And while Kittle doesn’t need to improve to pay off, he probably will. Deebo Samuel is out the door, Brandon Aiyuk is on the PUP list for the indefinite future, Jauan Jennings is battling a calf injury and asking for a trade, and Ricky Pearsall has only just returned from the PUP list (and hamstring injuries often linger into the season, increasing his injury risk). Everything screams another mammoth Kittle season, but even if he doesn’t fully pay off, the risk is so low. The 49er has been a Top 4 tight end every healthy season since 2017. I’d happily take him any time in the third round and I’ll feel over the moon with my team.
Courtland Sutton – ADP: Round 5, My Rank: WR18
The arrival of Bo Nix led Courtland Sutton to his first 1000+ yard season since 2019 and his best ever fantasy finish as the PPR WR15. Nix’s second season could lead to a further boost in Sutton’s output, as Sutton and Nix’s connection improved as the season went on. The veteran receiver was the WR46 through 7 weeks but the WR12 the rest of the way. You can get him as the 23rd receiver off the board in the mid-fifth round while I’d happily take him a full round earlier if I needed to. The upside is a top twelve fantasy season, something which is true of very few players in this range.
If you have questions on your drafts and leagues, make sure you hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown or on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn. Also make sure you check out my dynasty, rookie and redraft rankings and my video analysis of all positional hit rates.
