Week 4 Starts and Sits: Home/Road and Win/Loss Players Splits

Time to hold my feet to the fire.

My Week 3 starts:

D’Andre Swift: projected 12.2 PPR points, actual 10.8 PPR points

Marquise Brown: projected 12.7 PPR points, actual 8.2 PPR points

Jameson Williams: projected 12.7 PPR points, actual 6.3 PPR points

Keenan Allen: projected 12.5 PPR points, actual 19.5 PPR points

Oof. One out of four. In modern MLB, I might be leading the league in batting average. This is not MLB. Swift came the closest, despite the blowout. The Broncos are making this personal now. And I need to listen to my gut more.

Oh, if you thought that was bad…

My Week 3 sits:

Courtland Sutton: projected 12.9 PPR points, actual 23.8 PPR points

T.J. Hockenson: projected 9.6 points, actual 15.9 PPR points

I should never tell my audience to sit a team’s WR1. The Broncos were more competitive than I imagined. A couple of things about Sutton: 1) the most damage he did came when he burned free safety Alohi Gilman for a 52-yard touchdown. Concerning to me is that Sutton was only targeted once after halftime.

Hockenson’s TD came with :17 left in the 3^rd quarter and gave the Vikings their last points of the day in a 48-10 romp. Wentz was good for the tight ends last week.

To finish a thought I started last week: “…try, try again.”

I’d love to tell you to sit Isaiah Pacheco, but do we really need to hear that? Yes, the Baltimore Ravens did give up 224 rushing yards just Monday night, but that was to the Detroit Lions with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on 34 attempts. The Chiefs’ running backs have combined for 51 carries for 188 yards in three games. The fact that Kareem Hunt is ranked a couple of spots lower than Pacheco should tell us something. I’d rather plug in Hunt at this point because he seems to be preferred at the goal line.

If the Internet age has taught me anything, it’s more important to be interesting than correct. I strive for both, but we know how that’s been going.

Last season, we established that these tools won’t necessarily be useful for deciding to start the top 24 running backs or top 24 wide receivers in a given week’s rankings, but could be useful to point out a player for further consideration when deciding to sit him. This tool won’t be a decision point as much as a compass. The start recommendations will be deeper players outside the top 24 of the RB/WR pools. If I recommend a tight end, it would likely be someone outside the top 12 of those week’s rankings.

For the numbers below for Home/Road and Win/Loss: positive numbers mean a player scores more at home or in wins, and negative numbers mean a player scores more on the road or in losses. The H/R Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in home games divided by those scored in road games and the W/L Index numbers are percentages of PPR points scored in wins divided by those scored in losses: an index of 100 means the numbers are equal, more than 100 means the player scores more at home or in wins, and less than 100 means the player scores more on the road or in losses.

How I approach this: First, I need rankings: I choose FantasyPros as they’re free and they use several analysts to amalgamate. Second, I look at the H/R and W/L databases for an edge. Third, I look at spreads and over/under for how the public sees the games (I use ESPNBET). Those are candidates. The work after would consume too much of this column, but I will say PFF is a great ally.

Let’s look at some players for Week 4.

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing |

Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our 3-day free trial!

 

Player: Nick Chubb

Team: Houston Texans

FantasyPros PPR Rank: RB 34, 9.3 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: RB 29, 9.4 points/game

Spread: -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, O/U 38.5

Home/Road: +2.3, H/R Index 133

Win/Loss: +4.6, W/L Index 162

The Texans have only scored more than 10 points once this year. They’re 0-3.

But so are the Titans, and they’ve surrendered 94 points. I think this is a get-right game for the Texans, although they have an implied points total of 23 points, so bettors aren’t expecting a shootout. The Texans have had their problems with pass blocking, but they grade as a top-10 run blocking unit per PFF.

If you look at our RB Zone vs Gap tool, the Texans use Chubb in Gap runs 65% of the time, and the DEF Zone vs Gap Rushing tool show the Titans giving up the 4^th-most yards to gap runs. They’re also allowing the 3^rd-most PPR points to RBs.

Chubb’s been better in home games, and much better in games his team has led. In their most competitive game, versus the Buccaneers at home, Chubb had 15.2 PPR points. Woody Marks has been getting snaps, but Chubb is still leading in touches and I believe if this game sets up as appears, Chubb will be in for a much better game than his projection.

Recommendation: START                                                                                                                                                       

 

Player: David Montgomery

Team: Detroit Lions

FantasyPros PPR Rank: RB 30, 11.0 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: RB 8, 16.9 points/game

Spread: -9.5 vs. Cleveland Browns, O/U 44.5

Home/Road: +0.8, H/R Index 105

Win/Loss: +5.7, W/L Index 152

David Montgomery is coming off a week where he was the PPR RB 2 with 29.4 points. I can’t promise you that I haven’t lost my mind, but I do have a narrative.

H/R shows Montgomery, on average, performs nearly the same regardless of the location of the game, they are heavily favored, and Monty has performed significantly better in wins, even using the “8+-point Win” data, where he’s actually been better in blowout wins.

But look at the expected points in his ranking. That’s a red flag in my mind. I get that.

The Browns are allowing 10.8 points to running backs this year. And none of those backs cedes many touches to other running backs. They held Chase Brown to 13.1 PPR points on 23 touches, and that included the only rushing TD the Browns have surrendered. They held Derrick Henry to 11. Touches, not points. After a fumble, he had 2.3 points. Josh Jacobs had 12.4 points on 21 touches, and that included 5 receptions for 44 yards.

Cleveland does give up a handful more yards to zone blocking, and Montgomery gets 62% of his attempts in zone, but the Browns are allowing just over 57 rushing yards per game, and only 49 on designed runs. Montgomery can make me eat my words with a TD or a few receptions, but I’ll bet against that in a game that favors the Lions’ passing attack. Baltimore tried to run on Cleveland. Lamar Jackson wound up with 4 passing TDs.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Player: Chris Olave

Team: New Orleans Saints

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 30, 12.4 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 24, 13.2 points/game

Spread: +15.5 at New Orleans, O/U 47.5

Home/Road: -2.2, H/R Index 81

Win/Loss: -3.2, W/L Index 71

It seems counterintuitive that Olave would score more points outside the Superdome, but I noticed that and said, “Great.” Olave is a target machine, and he was just targeted 14 times in a blowout in Seattle, even if that netted only 15.7 PPR points. That was in part because the Seahawks pressured the Saints’ QBs enough that Olave’s average yards per target (YPT) was 4.07 and yards per catch (YPC) was 5.7. He had ten receptions for 57 yards.

Another part of that is the track meets the Saints have been running: even in the Seattle game, they managed 73 offensive plays, which has been their average through three games.

Buffalo has been giving up yardage in the run game (last in yards per game allowed), not in the pass game (2^nd best in YPG allowed), so it could be another low-yardage game for Olave, but what Buffalo doesn’t do as well as Seattle does is pressure the quarterback (6 sacks vs. 12 for Seattle) or turn the ball over (1 interception vs. 7 for Seattle).

This is a weird thing about Kellen Moore’s offense so far: the Saints are using Chris Olave as a short-yardage receiver in place of Alvin Kamara, who has a head-scratching 10 targets through three games. There’s a danger the Saints figure this out.

But the last time the Saints faced a team averaging 2 sacks a game, Spencer Rattler threw for 3 touchdowns. In my mind, the Saints will need that to have any chance in Buffalo. Buffalo has been tough on the slot, but Matt Milano may miss the game Sunday. They’re middle of the pack versus wideouts. Olave won’t have a shadow, and they move him all over the formation. I believe he can at least equal the production he had in Seattle.

Recommendation: START

 

Player: Brian Thomas

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 23, 13.8 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 54, 8.5 points/game

Spread: +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers, O/U 46.5

Home/Road: +2.4, H/R Index 117

Win/Loss: +2.1, W/L Index 114

Thomas’s rookie year started out slow, but not like this. He has 25 targets that have been converted into 7 receptions. That is a 28% completion rate. He has no receiving touchdowns. If he weren’t averaging 16.4 YPC, it would be worse.

There is something not meshing in the plan that Liam Coen and Shane Waldron have been making for Trevor Lawrence and Thomas. There doesn’t seem to be anything significantly wrong physically with either player. Thomas is 3^rd in receiving yards and 5^th in receptions on his own team.

The 49ers have not been giving up many fantasy points to any position. I know they just lost Nick Bosa, but Bryce Huff seems to be picking up Robert Salah’s defense nicely. The Niners have been weaker on the interior of the pass defense, but while Thomas lines up there 20% of the time, he has zero points in the slot.

This does not seem like a get-right game for the Jags’ passing offense. Their defense will have to step up. The 49ers have allowed the second fewest points in the NFL. Brock Purdy and Mac Jones have both been limited in practice, but there’s no reason to think either would be out.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Player: Quentin Johnston

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 32, 12.2 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 8, 18.6 points/game

Spread: -6.5 at New York Giants, O/U 43.5

Home/Road: -3.7, H/R Index 74

Win/Loss: +5.1, W/L Index 155

The indices line up nicely here with a weird ranking, so let’s dive in.

With the season-ending injury to Najee Harris, the Chargers currently have two running backs on their active roster. I believe they will activate at least one of Kimani Vidal and Amar Johnson from the practice squad. Last week, Omarion Hampton had a career-high 25 touches for 129 scrimmage yards and his first touchdown. There is a chance that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman revert to type and lean on the running game.

On the other side, the Giants’ defense gives up yards and points. They’re giving up the 3^rd-most fantasy points to receivers and 2^nd-most to the slot, so that’s an advantage for Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen.

But the Giants are middle of the pack to wideouts as well. Johnston leads the team’s WRs with 17.1 YPC, and he’s second in targets on the team to Allen. He’s also tied on the team with 3 TDs. With the depth, he doesn’t catch quite as many of his targets as the other WRs, but he has 14 through three games.

Other than the shootout in Dallas, the Giants’ games have been low-scoring. That could happen again here, but I think there will be plenty of points and yards for the Chargers passing attack on Sunday.

Recommendation: START

 

Player: DK Metcalf

Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

FantasyPros PPR Rank: WR 26, 12.7 PPR points

Current PPR Scoring Rank: WR 31, 11.8 points/game

Spread: +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings (in Dublin, IE), O/U 40.5

Home/Road: -4.0, H/R Index 72

Win/Loss: +3.3, W/L Index 132

The indices favor this as a sit since Metcalf has been averaging 10.4 PPR PPG both on the road and in losses. Let’s drill down.

The Steelers are an odd 2-1 team. They put up nearly half their points against a Jets team that has not stopped anyone, and they scored 21 points in a game where they created 5 turnovers.

Metcalf is the unquestioned WR1 on the Steelers, but QB Aaron Rodgers has targeted six players at least 10 times, and all of them have at least 7 receptions. DK leads the team in targets, but only with 17. He’s 3^rd in receptions (10), 2^nd in yards (135), and tied for the team lead in TDs (2).

The Vikings have been a shut-down defense vs. the pass: They allowed the 3^rd-fewest passing yards and the fewest fantasy PPG to WRs. They’ve allowed no more than 1 passing TD in any of their games. They’ve allowed the fewest points to wideouts and are in the bottom-third of points allowed to the slot. Metcalf isn’t strictly a wideout, but less than 1/3 of his production comes from the slot.

Rodgers is arguably the best QB the Vikings have faced in 2025: the others have been Caleb Williams, Michael Penix, and Jake Browning. The game being in Ireland could make things interesting, but I’m giving the edge to the Vikings and looking for a better option than a receiver who scores 1/3 of his points on TDs.

Recommendation: SIT

 

Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X  and BlueSky @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy, and don’t forget to join us on Sunday mornings of the fantasy football season at 11:00 a.m. EDT for the RazzballNFL Start/Sit show. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 3!