We’ve entered Act 2 of the NFL’s fantasy football postseason screenplay. Our legendary fantasy tales now sit firmly in the confrontation phase, as we barrel toward the resolution. Who let you down? Who rose to the occasion? Let’s break down my Week 16 takeaways as we look ahead to Week 17 — Championship Week.
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Quarterbacks
- Player: Trevor Lawrence
- Game: at Denver
- Stats: 23-36, 279 passing yards, 3 TDs, with 6 carries for 20 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD
As alluded to last week, Denver entered the game allowing the 11th-most points to QBs in the previous four games. The Prince of Duval delivered his second consecutive week as the overall QB1 for the first time in his career. His ascension is based on not having a turnover in his last four games and has two TDs in five straight games. Keep rollin, rollin, rollin with TLaw against the Colts, where he tossed two TDs and 244 yards in poor weather conditions during Week 14.
Notables:
Joe Burrow corrected last week’s misstep in a big way, throwing for 309 yards and four touchdowns. As long as Burrow is under center for Cincinnati, he’s a locked-in must-start. Week 17 sets up as a potential shootout against Arizona in what could be one of the more offense-heavy matchups of the slate.
Justin Herbert eclipsed 300 passing yards with three touchdowns for the first time since Week 7. That performance is even more impressive considering Dallas has allowed only two quarterbacks—Russell Wilson and Jordan Love—to reach those marks all season. Herbert may be best left on the bench next week against Houston, however, as the Texans have been the toughest defense against QBs.
Josh Allen pulled a Joe Burrow–style dud from Week 15, scoring in single digits for the first time since his rookie season in 2018. While it was a brutal outing for fantasy managers, Allen should bounce back against Philadelphia. The Eagles allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, but Allen’s ceiling keeps him firmly in lineups.
Against the third-friendliest defense to quarterbacks, Bryce Young was held under 200 passing yards but still managed to throw two touchdowns against Tampa Bay. He’s now turnover-free in three straight games and draws Seattle next, a defense that just allowed Matthew Stafford to finish as the QB1. Given the number of injured and unreliable quarterbacks, Young profiles as a low-end QB1 for Week 17.
Jaxson Dart came up short at the worst possible time. Minnesota has now held quarterbacks to single-digit fantasy performances seven times this season, including Dart. Still, he was one of the last players many expected to fall victim to that trend. A tough break for fantasy managers who rolled the dice.
Injury chaos struck the quarterback position, with four QBs unable to finish their games. These situations could significantly impact their skill-position teammates:
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Lamar Jackson exited with a back injury
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Gardner Minshew may have suffered a torn ACL
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J.J. McCarthy injured his right hand
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Jordan Love left with a concussion
All situations should be monitored closely leading up to Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday kickoffs.
Running Backs
- Player: Ashton Jeanty
- Game: at Houston
- Stats: 28 carries, 128 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, with 1 catch for 60 yards and 1 receiving TD
Please raise your hand if you started Jeanty with confidence this week. I know I would not have, considering he was averaging 36 rushing yards over his last four games. He’s etched his name on the pantheon of fantasy postseason performances to remember. If he’s on your roster going into the championship game, he’ll have his best matchup on paper since Week 11, against the Giants, who allow 20+ points to RBs per game.
Notables:
Chase Brown picked the perfect time to deliver his best performance of the season, scoring three total touchdowns while surpassing 100 scrimmage yards. Miami has been a middle-of-the-pack defense against running backs and has allowed just one receiving touchdown to RBs all season. Brown now has a chance to continue his scoring surge—five touchdowns over the last three weeks—against Arizona, a defense that has surrendered 18 touchdowns to running backs.
With Josh Allen having a quiet day, it was no surprise that James Cook became the focal point of the Bills’ offense. Cook racked up 124 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland, marking back-to-back games with 100+ rushing yards and two scores. He draws a tough but exploitable matchup against Philadelphia, who have allowed two RBs to score multiple touchdowns this season and rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to the position.
This was THE Jaylen Warren game, highlighted by two explosive 45-yard rushing touchdowns. It was just his second 100-yard rushing performance of the season, yet his 10th double-digit fantasy outing. Warren gets a rematch with Cleveland in Week 17—a defense that limited him to one of his worst performances earlier this season, though it just allowed Cook to dominate.
Not to be overshadowed by Warren’s breakout, Kenneth Gainwell contributed 50 rushing yards while adding four catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. Gainwell continues to operate as Philadelphia’s primary pass-catching back, securing at least five receptions in five of his last six games. He caught six passes against Cleveland in Week 6 and will face the Browns again in Week 17.
Bijan Robinson has topped 100 scrimmage yards in 10 games this season and has caught at least five passes in eight of 15 contests, including 15 receptions over his last two games. He’ll face the Rams in Week 17, a defense allowing nearly five receptions per game to running backs. While surpassing 100 scrimmage yards may be difficult, Bijan remains a must-start in championship lineups.
Facing Jacksonville—a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs—R.J. Harvey still found the end zone, scoring his fifth rushing touchdown in four games. Despite seeing just 11 touches, he posted his second-highest fantasy total of the season. Harvey gets a favorable opportunity to extend his touchdown streak against Kansas City next week.
The Titans’ backfield delivered a rare dual 100-yard effort against Kansas City. Tony Pollard rushed for 102 yards, while Tyjae Spears totaled 105 scrimmage yards (52 rushing, 53 receiving) and scored a touchdown. Pollard has now rushed for 100+ yards in three straight games after failing to do so in his first 12 contests. He’ll face the Saints next, a middle-of-the-pack run defense that has allowed four RBs to eclipse 100 rushing yards this season.
Travis Etienne Jr. continues to heat up, scoring 10 touchdowns over the last eight weeks since Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye. With Bhayshul Tuten sidelined, Etienne handled 21 touches and remains firmly entrenched as the lead back. He scored twice against Indianapolis in Week 14 and is a strong bet to close the season on a high note in Week 17 at Indy.
Omarion Hampton nearly doubled his snap share and produced 95 all-purpose yards and a touchdown against Dallas, a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs. The Chargers appear to be easing Hampton back as they push for a postseason spot. Before his injury, he averaged a 74% snap share, so an expanded role should be expected against Houston—a typically difficult matchup. However, Jeanty managers can attest to how exploitable it looked last week.
Bucky Irving is averaging 18 touches per game over his last four outings since returning from injury. The issue remains goal-line usage, as Rachaad White and Sean Tucker continue to vulture scoring opportunities. Still, there’s hope Irving can notch his fifth touchdown against Miami, a defense that just allowed Chase Brown to score three times.
Quinshon Judkins suffered a fractured fibula and a dislocated ankle, an unfortunate late-season blow for a promising young runner. With Judkins sidelined, Raheim Sanders was next in line and could see an expanded role.
Wide Receivers
- Player: Chris Olave
- Game: vs. NY Jets
- Stats: 10 receptions, 148 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs on 16 targets
Olave has been a very solid WR all season for fantasy as his targets and air yards are comparable to JSN, but really broke out today against a difficult secondary that’s allowed the 11th fewest points to WRs while allowing the most points to RBs over the last four games. He’ll be in the top 10 WR consideration heading into Week 17, facing the Titans, who permit the fifth most points to WRs.
Notables
Parker Washington reaped the benefits of the Broncos’ secondary keying on Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers, erupting for a 14-115-1 line. Unfortunately, it’s likely a wasted performance since he probably wasn’t started in many lineups. The Jaguars’ wide receiver group draws the Colts next week, a defense that allowed three Jags WRs to score double-digit fantasy points in Week 14.
George Pickens paced the Cowboys’ receiving corps with 130 yards and a touchdown after back-to-back lackluster outings in which he totaled just 30 receiving yards combined. Dallas faces Washington next, a defense that ranks top 10 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
The Chargers’ wideouts capitalized on a dream matchup against Dallas. Quentin Johnston returned to lead the group with 4-104-1, while Ladd McConkey chipped in 4-43-1. These performances can largely be attributed to the Cowboys’ secondary, which allows the most fantasy points to WRs after a string of porous outings.
Courtland Sutton continues to close the season on a tear, drawing at least 10 targets in three straight games and posting back-to-back top-10 WR finishes. Expectations should be tempered against the Chiefs on Christmas, but Sutton remains a must-start given his role and recent usage.
The Buccaneers’ passing game has become muddled with a fully healthy wide receiver room. Over the last two games, Mike Evans (5-31-1) has been the only Tampa receiver offering reliable fantasy production. He’s the lone WR I’d feel comfortable starting against Miami, who allow the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers, in next week’s championship matchup. Chris Godwin has totaled just 50 yards and a touchdown over his last two games, while Emeka Egbuka has 104 yards in that span but managed only one catch in Week 16.
Kalif Raymond and Isaac TeSlaa led the Lions’ wide receiver production in Week 16—not Jameson Williams or Amon-Ra St. Brown. If I were a betting man (which we do not condone), I’d say Detroit’s WRs were a major reason many fantasy teams did not advance to the championship. Things won’t get easier next week, as the Lions face the Vikings, who allow the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs.
Zay Flowers weathered Lamar Jackson’s injury by hauling in seven catches for 84 yards and adding an 18-yard rushing touchdown. Baltimore’s quarterbacks combined for just 20 pass attempts, however. If Tyler Huntley starts Saturday against Green Bay, expectations should be lowered in what could be a low-scoring affair—especially with Malik Willis potentially starting for the Packers.
Stefon Diggs delivered a strong showing on Sunday Night Football, catching nine passes for 138 yards. After being nearly unplayable over the previous three weeks (just 72 yards total), this was a welcome rebound. The Patriots face the Jets next, a defense Diggs already torched for 100+ yards in Week 11, setting up another strong opportunity.
Tight End
- Player: Harold Fannin Jr.
- Game: vs. Bills
- Stats: 4 receptions, 34 yards, 1 touchdown on 6 targets and 1 rushing touchdown
After drawing 14 targets last week, Fannin Jr. led all TEs in Week 16 in the worst matchup against Buffalo. He’s up to three TDs over his last four games and draws a highly favorable matchup against the Steelers, who’ve allowed 10 TE TDs, the second-highest in the league. He is on pace to be one of the top TEs for the fantasy postseason.
Notables:
Kyle Pitts Sr. remained the Falcons’ top passing option in Drake London’s absence. Pitts posted a 7-57-1 line on nine targets, finishing as TE2 on the week. Since Kirk Cousins took over for Michael Penix in Week 12, Pitts has been the TE1 in fantasy scoring. That said, he’ll face a tough test next week against the Rams, who have been the second-toughest defense against tight ends over the last four weeks.
Trey McBride turned in his worst outing with Jacoby Brissett under center despite seeing the right amount of volume. He should be in line for a rebound against Cincinnati, a defense that allows the most fantasy points to tight ends, including an absurd 15 touchdowns to the position.
Brock Bowers delivered a respectable 5-33-1 performance, especially considering how poorly most starting tight ends fared this week. He draws another tough matchup on paper against the Giants, but given how the Raiders’ offense looked, Bowers could still surprise fantasy managers.
Darren Waller was a letdown after failing to score against the Bengals’ defense. Despite a favorable Week 17 matchup against the Buccaneers, he may no longer be a reliable streaming option.
Brenton Strange emerged as an interesting streamer against the Broncos, who allow the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends. He produced a 5-39-1 line after totaling just four catches for 53 yards across his previous two games. Up next are the Colts (11th-most points allowed to TEs), though they held Strange to 27 yards just two weeks ago.
Taysom Hill was a thorn in the side of Audric Estimé managers, a popular waiver-wire addition this week. Hill logged 12 rushing attempts for 42 yards, added four catches for 36 yards, and even threw a 38-yard touchdown pass to Chris Olave. His usage remains volatile—he played just 46% of snaps—but he’s worth a dart throw if you’re desperate at tight end in a matchup against the Titans
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