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Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey.
Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 11, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 72 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.
Market Share of Air Yards: Top 5 in Week 8
These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 10.
Stefon Diggs (208 air yards, 57.5%) – It took 10 long weeks, but Stefon Diggs’ fantasy managers finally got the 2021 breakout game they have been waiting for. In addition to the eye-popping 208 air yards, Diggs hauled in 162 receiving yards and a score on 46.4% target share. As best I can tell, that is the fifth-highest target share of the season. It was just a matter of time before the Allen-Diggs ceiling hit, so now we can just back and watch them try and match it each week.
Keenan Allen (101 air yards, 54.3%) – A 54.3% air yards share and 33.3% target share will certainly pay the bills for Allen’s managers. With Mike Williams playing hurt and Jared Cook suddenly inconsistent, this is the Allen-Ekeler show for the Chargers. Allen rarely scores, but he should remain PPR gold the rest of the season.
Justin Jefferson (128 air yards, 54.0%) – Some recent coach-speak finally came true this week. Mike Zimmer recently stated that they needed to get Jefferson more looks, and that certainly came to fruition in Week 10. Not only did he have 128 air yards, but that turned into 143 receiving yards on 11 targets. The Vikings have some potential shootouts looming on their schedule, so this may just be the appetizer for what’s to come.
Kalif Raymond (65 air yards, 52.4%) – LOL at the fact that 65 air yards represents 52.4% of Jared Goff’s total from an OVERTIME game. Besides D’Andre Swift, there is just no hope for any other player on that team. Don’t overreact to this usage, as it’s akin to you being allowed to have the most crumbs left at the bottom of the potato chip bag.
Jerry Jeudy (89 air yards, 45.6%%) – As we will see below, Jeudy is quickly becoming Teddy Bridgewater’s favorite target and games where he leads the receiving room in air yards and target share should be commonplace moving forward. The overall depression of the Denver offense could limit Jeudy, but he is clearly their most explosive option.
Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20
These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.
CeeDee Lamb (31 air yards, 19.1%%) – This was certainly not the positive air yardge regression we wanted after 212 air yards but just 23 receiving yards in Week 9. The seven targets are mildly encouraging, as are the 58 yards after the catch and the two scores. But Lamb needs an aDOT higher than 4.43 moving forward. I’m willing to bet we get some bigger plays this week against the Chiefs.
Courtland Sutton (33 air yards, 16.9%) – This is two straight weeks on this list with less than 40 air yards. The pattern is now clear: when Jerry Jeudy is on the field, he is the alpha receiver. Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant will fight for the leftover scraps in this low-scoring offense.
D.J. Moore (36 air yards, 29.0%) – With seven targets and a 22% target share, Moore isn’t getting the Robby Anderson Fantasy Funeral just let, but let’s just say he is on his way to the hospital. I am hopeful that Cam Newton can come in and provide a spark to this offense, but we may need to get used to low aDOT, possession receiver-type games from Moore. We are now in a six-week stretch since the last time Moore scored a touchdown.
Positive Regression Candidate
Negative Regression Candidate
Marcus Johnson (32 air yards, 100 receiving yards) – Johnson was a hot waiver wire pickup this week after a big game and the news that Julio Jones would be placed on IR. The 100 yards on six targets made for a nice game, but I wouldn’t overpay for Johnson’s services based on just this performance.
First, he only managed 32 air yards this week, and relied on a league-high 64 yards after the catch to reach the century mark in receiving yards. The 5.3 aDOT and the small 23% of air yards don’t inspire a lot of confidence that there are many more boom weeks coming.
The New Orleans Saints rank bottom-10 in opponents’ net yards per pass attempt and total receiving yards this year. It’s possible this was just the ideal YAC environment for Johnson and this will revert back to the AJ Brown and Running Backs show by Week 11.
Kupp Check
This is the weekly place where we check how Cooper Kupp is breaking the air yards model.
Ho Hum. Another week in the top three in targets (13), receptions (11), receiving yards (122) all while checking in with only 108 air yards and an air yards share ranked 22nd among wide receivers.
Kupp remains among the league leaders in yards after the catch. He was third in Week 10 with 61 and now trails only Deebo Samuel on the season.
To put his season into some context as Kupp heads into his bye, he has 1,141 receiving yards through 10 weeks. Last year’s WR1, Davante Adams, had just 1,374 receiving yards all year in 2020. Kupp will likely surpass that in Week 13.
Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards
Mike Williams (10 air yards, 33 receiving yards) – He is hurt. There is no other explanation. Unless he slept with Justin Herbert’s girlfriend or something, an injury is the only thing that could have derailed his season this badly. Williams has only 15 more yards in his last FOUR games than Kupp had in Week 10.
Robby Anderson (19 air yards, 37 receiving yards) – Sure, the touchdown is nice, but does Robby Anderson even recognize himself anymore? A 3.2 yard aDOT? Just 15% of air yards? New York Jets’ Robby Anderson would be so ashamed.
Brandon Aiyuk (16 air yards, 26 receiving yards) – I’m about ready to jump off this roller coaster? Do they want to use him or not? After eight targets and 101 air yards in Week 9, we get this dud as it was back to being the Deebo Show. Maddening, and possibly not worth it for redraft fantasy managers.
