Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey.
Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 13, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 65 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.
Market Share of Air Yards: Top 5 in Week 8
These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 10.
Tee Higgins (133 air yards, 73.1%) – This was a very strange offensive game for the Bengals. One where Joe Burrow only had 176 total air yards and 133 of them went to Higgins. Every other Bengals’ skill player combined for 43 air yards, including Ja’Marr Chase with just seven. Higgins averages 89 air yards and 34.2% of the air yards share on the season, so I wouldn’t read anything into this other than the Bengals exploiting a plus matchup for Higgins.
Josh Reynolds (118 air yards, 72.8%) – We love the raw numbers here for Josh Reynolds on his new team, but then we consider Jared Goff is making these throws and we have to decide what to do. Reynolds did turn his 118 air yards on five targets into 70 yards and a score. All other wide receivers combined for seven catches and 39 yards, so if this is now the Josh Reynolds show, he is at least worth a spot on your bench if not in weekly Flex consideration.
Jaylen Waddle (82 air yards, 70.7%) – Waddle had produced some good games this season, but this was the breakout performance. Ten targets, nine receptions, 137 receiving yards and a score. But most importantly, he had an aDOT of 8.2. On the season that number is 7.1, signaling that the Dolphins might be starting to get the ball downfield to Waddle more. The 12 catches for 65 yards games are nice, but if he can secure some more high-value targets going forward, the sky is the limit here.
Justin Jefferson (124 air yards, 57.9%) – Exactly where he should be on this list. Jefferson ranks sixth in average air yards per game this year and fourth in air yards share per game. He ranked eighth in air yards and fourth in air yards share in Week 12. If he didn’t keep getting vultured by Adam Thielen in the red zone, Jefferson likely is in the conversation for top-two receiver in fantasy. Right now he is fifth in half-point per reception formats.
Kenny Golladay (76 air yards, 55.5%%) – It’s good to see Kenny Golladay back drawing targets and getting involved on the field, but there’s just one problem. These air yards are coming from the dreadful duo of Daniel Jones and Mike Glennon which means his 76 air yards on seven targets devolves into three catches for 50 yards and no scores. This is not a performance to view and come away with an “I need to roster Golladay” take.
Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20
These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.
DeVonta Smith (41 air yards, 14.0%%) – At least this pitiful performance sets up the squeaky wheel game for Smith next time out. Jalen Hurts just straight did not see Smith on multiple routes where he had a man beat on Sunday. The four targets and two receptions were both second-lowest of the season. The Eagles transitioned to primarily a run team recently, but Smith should still see more volume than what he drew in Week 12.
Randall Cobb (35 air yards, 8.3%) – If you could search the dictionary for a perfect game plan for Cobb, this would have been it. Cobb saw 35 air yards on five targets, but led all wide receivers with 69 yards after the catch and finished the day with 95 receiving yards and a score. His seven-yard aDOT put him right in the flat where he could operate while the secondary focused on Adams and MVS.
Elijah Moore (50 air yards, 51.5%) – Well, so much for the four games of elite play he saw with Joe Flacco and Mike White. It was fun while it lasted. Just the fact that Moore had over 50% of the air yards with only 50 tells you something about the abilities of Zach Wilson. This does not bode well for a medium- to deep-threat like Moore.
Positive Regression Candidate
Van Jefferson (164 air yards, 93 receiving yards) – Isn’t it hard to make a case that a guy can have positive regression after 164 air yards, 93 receiving yards and a score? Not so fast, my friend.
The simple fact is that every part of Jefferson’s game was top-shelf elite on Sunday except one thing: his receptions. Jefferson only caught three of his nine targets so we can only imagine what kind of line he would have had considering his 18.3 aDOT in the game.
Jefferson’s 38% of his team’s air yards might be the most encouraging piece of news in an otherwise stellar game. He looks like an answered prayer to the replacement for Robert Woods and has the makings of a playoff hero this year.
Negative Regression Candidate
Russell Gage (28 air yards, 62 receiving yards) – The Falcons offense is just straight broken right now, that’s all there is to it. Gage had to put up a top-15 effort in yards after the catch (34 yards) just to get to 62 receiving yards on seven targets.
The whole team had 120 air yards from Matt Ryan as his aDOT was a pitiful 4.1 yards Sunday. Gage’s aDOT of 4.0 was the second-lowest of any wide receiver with at least five targets in Week 12.
He saved his day with the YAC and touchdown, but those are certainly not guaranteed in this dumpster fire of an offense. Sell high while you still can.
Kupp Check
This is the weekly place where we check how Cooper Kupp is breaking the air yards model.
The emergence of Van Jefferson and the playmaking ability of Odell Beckham Jr. showed for the first time in Week 12 that Kupp could actually be mortal this season. Kupp was second in the league in targets again, he was top-ten in yards after the catch, and had a very good 9.1 aDOT.
But Jefferson and Beckham seeing a higher share of air yards and the wide receiver targets being split equally three ways is at least something to monitor. Kupp’s place atop the wide receiver fantasy rankings this year is extremely safe, but I can assure you the Rams do not care about that if it means a more efficient offensive system.
Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards
Chris Godwin (25 air yards, 24 receiving yards) – Not really too much to say here after Godwin entered the week as a top-flight DFS and fantasy play. It was the Leonard Fournette show against the helpless Indianapolis Colts so why did Brady need to throw the ball? Brady had his fewest pass attempts of the year, his second lowest passing yards, and second-lowest adjusted yards per attempt. Momma said there would be days like this. If you didn’t roster Fournette or Gronk, this game left you with a bad taste in your mouth.
Mike Evans (25 air yards, 16 receiving yards) – See Godwin, Chris.
Courtland Sutton (21 air yards, 17 receiving yards) – I’m starting to feel like a broken record repeating this after so many weeks, so this will be the final time. Sutton is not playable with all of the Denver playmakers back on the field. They have Jeudy, Fant, Patrick, Gordon, Williams and Sutton all with playmaking abilities. That’s too many mouths to feed and Teddy Bridegwater is not good of a cook anyway. Sutton is droppable for me in redraft formats.
