Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey.
Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 7, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 71 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.
Market Share of Air Yards: Top 5 in Week 6
These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 6.
Allen Robinson (161 air yards, 61.0% ) – This massive share of the air yards in Week 6 and seven targets is a baby step in the right direction towards relevancy again for Robinson. Last week after the latest in a string of disappointing games I wrote that I was benching Robinson anywhere I had him. I did do that, and I imagine fantasy managers are not content with four catches and 53 yards. But seven targets and 161 air yards is more in line with what we want to see. Robinson is now 20th on the year in both target share and air yards share. Just be prepared for this to be a low-volume, inefficient passing attack all season.
Terry McLaurin (159 air yards, 57.8%) – Exhibit A for proving that air yard share, air yards, and target share don’t always lead to fantasy production. Four catches for 28 yards in a game with a 54.5 implied total was a complete letdown to all #McSoarin managers, but with all of the injuries to Washington skill players, his role as the alpha remains secure.
Brandin Cooks (163 air yards, 57.4%) – Cooks now stands alone as the only player this season with more than 50% of their team’s air yard share. His 738 air yards and 33.4% target share both rank fourth in the NFL. But the problem is this offense is going to fail to score points in a reliable way. Houston only posts the fourth-most yards per game (294.3) and only the Jets score more than the Texans per game (15.3 points). In a PPR league, Cooks still has massive value, but in leagues that emphasize touchdowns, he is going to be a weak play.
Diontae Johnson (147 air yards, 53.8%) – We got our first full glance at Johnson without fellow wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, and the results were very encouraging. We are used to Johnson drawing 10-14 targets per game (13 in Week 6), but 147 air yards were a season-high as he averages just 102.6 per game this season. If Johnson constantly combines massive volume with more downfield targets, the sky’s the limit for him.
DJ Moore (222 air yards, 53.1%) – Only Courtland Sutton had more air yards on the week than Moore, as the Panthers and Vikings got into a shootout that wasn’t decided until overtime. That brings Moore up to fifth on the season in air yards per game (120.80), including 136.5 the last four weeks. With Robby Anderson dropping everything in sight and Terrace Marshall likely to miss time with a concussion, we are likely looking at some potential WR1 overall weeks incoming.
Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20
These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.
Robert Woods (46 air yards, 18.9%) – Looks like the squeaky wheel got greased for one week, and then it was back to revving up the Cooper Kupp engine once again. Kupp had a 40% target share in the shellacking of the Giants Sunday, plus 50% of the air yards share. Woods settled back into the role of a target share under 20%. It’s becoming blatantly obvious that the Rams’ game-plan revolves around getting Kupp and Darrell Henderson touches and everyone else is just fighting for scraps.
Rashod Bateman (40 air yards, 22.3%) – The rookie’s first game was disappointing only if you look at it from a results-oriented lens. I was very encouraged by a 22.3% target share and six targets in his first NFL game. This may be a new mid-field option to complement Hollywood Brown’s downfield threat.
DeAndre Hopkins (49 air yards, 19.5%) – After topping the list last week, this is a complete 180-degree turn, but also a likely indicator of what to expect from the Cardinals’ passing attack moving forward. With Zach Ertz joining the squad, they now have five legitimate pass-catching options plus Chase Edmonds. The ball is going to be distributed to all of them, and will be a headache to predict who will get the volume.
Positive Regression Candidate
Negative Regression Candidate
Donovan Peoples-Jones (100 air yards, 101 receiving yards) – Box score watchers may miss the fact that, yes, Peoples-Jones had 101 air yards and 100 receiving yards, but 57 of both of those came on an end-of-half Hail Mary throw. With Baker Mayfield and a host of other Cleveland Browns’ players out with injury, don’t buy the spike game from DPJ. This offense is going nowhere for a couple weeks.
Kupp Check
This is the weekly place where we check how Cooper Kupp is breaking the air yards model.
At some point in the very near future, that sentence above is going to have to change to read: “how Cooper Kupp is breaking the wide receiver model.”
Kupp is currently on pace for 192 targets, 131 receptions, 1,853 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. His aDOT was above 10.0 for the second week in a row, and he is now the only wide receiver to have at least 10 targets in every game this year.
Even as Kupp’s targets and receptions get farther downfield, he continues to lead the NFL in yards after the catch, more than 20 yards over second place.
Let’s see, how else can I translate Kupp’s dominance? You know Chase Claypool and Deebo Samuel? Both great receivers having good fantasy seasons. Kupp has more PPR points than both of them. Combined.
Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards
Tyler Boyd (19 air yards, 7 receiving yards) – With the dominance Ja’Marr chase has displayed this season and the relatively low-volume passing game by the Bengals (25th in pass play percentage), Boyd has simply been relegated to unstartable territory. Boyd ranks 30th in target share among wide receivers this season, but just 45th over the last three weeks.
Chris Godwin (24 air yards, 43 receiving yards) – Welcome to another week of Spin The Wheel of Buccaneers Wide Receivers. Each are going to have smash spots and each are going to have disappointing weeks. This week was Godwin’s turn on the bottom of the pile, but he had more than twice as many targets in Week 5 (11) as he did in Week 6 (five). He’ll be fine.
Keenan Allen (26 air yards, 50 receiving yards) – Perhaps no player saw as much vitriol from fantasy and DFS managers after Sunday than Allen. Mike Williams at least had the excuse of being hurt, but Allen was the biggest letdown in the most disappointing game of the week. Allen does still lead Williams slightly in target share, but Williams has almost 200 more air yards than Allen this year and has become the preferred deep threat for Justin Herbert.
