Air Yards Report, Week 7: A Hollywood Blockbuster

Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey. 

Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 8, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 65 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

Market Share of Air Yards: Top 5 in Week 7

These players received the five highest percentage share of their team’s total air yards in Week 7.

Darius Slayton (134 air yards, 63.2% ) – When you’re down Kenny Golladay, Kadarious Toney, Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, the target tree for the New York Giants is going to look rather narrow. Enter Slayton who had the third-most targets of his career Sunday (nine) but finished with only 63 receiving yards and no scores thanks to a lousy 55% catch percentage. His targets, target share, and air yards were all clear season-highs, so don’t expect repeat performances then the Giants start to get their first-team receivers back. 

A.J. Brown (121 air yards, 58.7%) – This was the game many pundits and prognosticators predicted. Brown (8/133/1) finally broke out in a big way this season against a hapless Kansas City pass defense. Julio Jones seems perpetually banged up and the Titans also have upcoming games against the Colts and Rams that could easily turn into shootouts. If you find even the slightest crack in any buy-low window for Brown, jump through that thing. 

Terry McLaurin (143 air yards, 57.9%) – McLaurin is now top ten among wide receivers in targets, receptions, air yards, air yards share and target share on the year. If not for the fact that Taylor Heinicke can’t get out of his own way in the Red Zone, #McSoarin might have more than four touchdowns. 

Marquise Brown (321 air yards, 55.2%) – I don’t know what’s more impressive about this line. The fact that Brown had 321 air yards on the week or that those air yards were only 55.2% of the total. Lamar Jackson is certainly not afraid to chuck it downfield this year and this aggressive style should benefit Brown, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman moving forward. Brown likely won’t have 15 targets and 321 air yards again this season, but it’s good to know this is still Lamar’s preferred target. 

Michael Pittman (91 air yards, 47.6%) – It’s amazing to look at his Pittman’s air yards compared to Brown’s and think they were less than 8% away from each other in their team’s total. But that’s what happens when you have an elite running back like the Colts. Pittman will continue to demand a large slice of the passing pie in Indianapolis, but it’s going to be like one of those mini, personal pies as opposed to a massive one like mom makes at Thanksgiving. 

Market Share of Air Yards: Highlights from the Bottom 20

These are intriguing highlights from the bottom 20 wide receivers with at least 30 air yards.

Rashod Bateman (69 air yards, 11.9%) – Since the Baltimore running backs are about as effective as a crumpled up piece of paper these days. it’s become clearer where the passing targets will live moving forward. Brown is going to get the deep shots. Mark Andrews and Bateman will be left to share the short and intermediate routes. The latter two had almost identical aDOT figures Sunday (11.5 and 11.7), while Brown was at 22.9 yards. If Bateman continues to get 6+ targets per game, we should remain encouraged. 

Tyler Boyd (44 air yards, 11.2%) – Bengals now rank second in the NFL in yards per completion. They are letting Joe Burrow bomb. They have Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and C.J. Uzomah as downfield threats. Say goodbye to Boyd and his 6.4 aDOT as a relevant fantasy option.

Robert Woods (35 air yards, 9.1%) – You had your game two weeks ago, Woods. This is clearly the Cooper Kupp and Darrell Henderson show now. Just 70 yards on six targets with a 5.8 aDOT. Kupp officially doubled Woods’ aDOT this week, and I have no issue with you shopping or dropping Woods at this point.

Positive Regression Candidate

This is the weekly place where we check how Cooper Kupp is breaking the air yards model.

I’ve run out of things to say here. It would be amazing if Kupp were JUST leading in targets, target share, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns – which he is. But he also leads the NFL in yards after the catch with 321, almost 60 more than any other wide receiver.

Kupp’s aDOT is also now approaching 10 yards (9.44). Last year it was 7.79. He’s become a deeper threat and somehow become even more efficient at the same time. 

At Kupp’s current pace of 11.57 targets per game, he will reach 197 on the season, just eight short of the NFL record set by Marvin Harrison in 2002. 

Notable Players Under 30 Air Yards

Randall Cobb (20 air yards, 22 receiving yards) – I would be willing to bet this number is 3x-4x higher on Thursday night as the Packers will be without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. Cobb will have some rare spike games throughout the season when teams double Adams or remove the over-the-top ability of Marques Valdez-Scantling. But the usage outside of Week 8 will be painfully low.

Henry Ruggs (19 air yards, 24 receiving yards) – For a player whose aDOT is almost 17 yards, this was a shocking result for a player many were high on for fantasy and DFS entering Week 7. I don’t think Ruggs has ever come close to a 4.8 aDOT in a game, but that’s where we were against a very beatable Eagles secondary. I like that he is attached to all-of-a-sudden gunslinger Derek Carr, and this should just be a blip week on the radar. 

Brandon Aiyuk (6 air yards, 6 receiving yards) – I don’t know what else to say about Aiyuk’s usage anymore. Dog house. Outcast. Persona non grata. Drop Aiyuk to upgrade somewhere else and don’t look back.