An Elephant Among the Delta Waves

Sleep now, if only for a minute. Dream of wavy grass, pinkish-purple clouds in the sky, and a nearby pine forest that’s yours to explore, if only the deer allow you. You’re moving past the first realms of waking life, where your consciousness is inundated with optimized modernity at every turn. Your black coffee, priced to perfection so Starbucks can open another shop in the busy streets of Somewhere. Your car, the engine valves greased with perfect viscosity so they can land a “green” rating in their miles per gallon despite the rare earth metals scattered throughout. You leave the optimum world, falling into the discontinuous, where you dwell soundly and peacefully. This is *your* place, where *you* live, when you’re within yourself. You look around, and there’s your family — biological or constructed or both — and your childhood pet (still alive and at their prime of health). This is your deepest self. You smile, watching the wavy grass and pinkish-purple clouds in the sky. As you approach the pine forest for a quiet reflective walk, you hear not the clack of antlers or the rustle of grass, but thumping noises. The earth shakes around you. You’re unsettled. The vision of your childhood pet accelerates temporally, and you’re at the vet on their last day. The earth moves, and you’re no longer with your family. It’s that bully from Junior High in your mind, the one that gave you swirlies on the daily. Then, emerging from the forest, a stampeding elephant charges to you. The dust is unsettled, the trees swaying as if in a hurricane. The trumpet of a mammalian orchestra, right in your face.

You awake. What a night! You grab your phone, and wouldn’t you know — you’re on the clock in draft after draft after draft. You load up Sleeper or Underdog or Draft Kings or NFC — it doesn’t really matter, does it? — and make your move to draft. ADP says you should draft yet another share of Courtland Sutton. Is that right? Is it optimal? What about that article you read about Devonta Smith — isn’t he a good option? But wait, Jalen Hurts might not be favored at QB. Maybe you’ll play it safe with Emmanuel Sanders — but what if he doesn’t get targets in the emergence of Gabriel Davis? 

What if, what if, what if? 

That’s fantasy football in a nutshell. Data is optimized and perfected, but if we drafted on data alone, we’d all end up with the same fantasy teams. Yet, there are more than 10^41 possibilities to draft a fantasy football team. Only one of them is optimal. Did you think the optimal team from 2020 would include an undrafted rookie running back on the Jacksonville Jaguars? Nope. Did you think weak-armed aging quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers would throw dozens of touchdowns in offenses that were geared towards their aging bodies? Probably not. Did you foresee the Falcons being on pace to be the worst defense in NFL history, or Dak Prescott, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Joe Mixon all missing most of the season? 

When Michael Burry made his famous “Big Short” on the US Housing market and profited over $2 billion dollars during the 2008 financial crisis, his vision was informed by data and process. Heck, even he was a blogger, posting his advice and theories on Reddit. OK, I’m probably not the next Michael Burry. But I do have a blog. Most would agree that Burry’s process was informed more by data than process. On the other hand, Carl Icahn made $1.3 billion by investing in Herbalife — a supplement company with largely absent evidence on its health claims. While another billionaire, Bill Ackman, famously shorted the Herbalife stock knowing the FDA didn’t support Herbalife and that there was almost no scientific evidence for claims by the seemingly MLM-style company, Icahn held fast and profited massively by going against the grain. By the end of their hissing match, Ackman had lost $1 billion dollars by following data and Icahn had gained $1 billion dollars by following process — the stock market was going up and bringing everything with it. 

This post is an effort to help people to think beyond data. Data is an essential part of any sort of forecasting. However, data doesn’t speak; humans develop processes with data and deploy it in different ways. Sometimes, that deployment comes for a massive gain; other times, it can be a massive loss. In fantasy football terms, you win the championship or come in last place. 

But that’s the great fun of fantasy sports in my opinion, is the projection not just of data, but of pathways to playing time and situations where players can succeed. To me, it matters little if you finish in first or last, just as long as you don’t finish in 7th place in a 12 team league. The 7th place finisher looked for floor everywhere and found boring players. The last place team might have picked solid players who all got injured — imagine those teams that started with Christian McCaffrey / Joe Mixon / George Kittle last year. Was that a *bad* team? No way. That was a team that followed process and data and got a bad shake. What about my teams that drafted Leonard Fournette and Chris Thompson? Yeah, that was floor all the way. I deserved that 7th place finish in those leagues because I was too afraid of finishing 12th. 

So how can we utilize those forecasting muscles and look forward to playing time increases for particular players? Think about what players benefit the most from injuries, trades, or other major changes in playing time. 

Some players that fit this paradigm:

Marlon Mack: A former 1,000-yard rusher for the Colts for two years straight that’s recovering from an Achilles injury. Jonathan Taylor is great, but running backs get injured. You know how Taylor had his big year last year? It happened because Mack got injured in the first game. If JT gets injured, Mack takes the ground carries. 

Tevin Coleman: Fantasy Coach JB pointed out the Jets’ RB in his Tevin Coleman 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook. The Jets drafted Michael Carter, but 4th round running backs almost never get traction in their first year in the NFL. Rudy actually sees Tevin Coleman getting equal touches to Michael Carter this year, except Coleman can be acquired nearly 60-70 picks later. 

Zach Ertz: He’s looking for a trade out of Philly and hasn’t found one yet. He’s had 110 or more targets in almost every year of his career except last year. I just got him in the 19th round…of a TE premium league. Are we really drafting Cole Kmet over Zach Ertz? If you’re drafting your second TE based on their floor, that’s like eating from a gas station every day. 

Anthony Miller: He’s second in line for targets on a team that’s going to be throwing a ton. He’s a turf toe away from being WR1 for a few weeks. As a last-round pick, that’s the pathway to snaps that you want. 

Kirk Cousins: The guy who is throwing to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook is being drafted as QB 20 right now. That’s a backup in standard leagues and a late-second QB for superflex leagues. His worst season finish was QB 16, and his best finish was QB 5. Last year, he was a top 12 QB in full season rankings. Imagine if Irv Smith evolves into a true threat in 2022.

So as we enter draft season, it’s important to think of the pathways to increased points for players at the end of the draft. Injuries, suspensions, and loss of favor don’t operate in a vacuum. I give you permission to examine the world in its depths, and to think of wild situations where you might find awesome upside for your fantasy football teams. 

What players are you targeting in the late rounds based on how you see the NFL season playing out? Let me know in the comments!