In this article we are going to review annual player incentives to see if we can use this information to help us with potential player props and DFS plays for Week 18. First, a player incentive is something embedded into a player’s contract that allows them to make more money if they hit a certain production threshold. For example, in some contracts if a player hits 100 receptions in a season they earn an $100,000 to X amount as an incentive for hitting that benchmark.
In this article we identified 7 players and 14 incentives that can be reached in Week 18. Below you will find a outline of how each section will be broken out for each player. Later in the article we will discuss each incentive and some background on the player’s historical stats to see how obtainable the incentive will be in Week 18.
Player – This represents the name of the person who is up for the incentive
Incentive – This represents what type of bonus is laid out in the contract i.e. receptions, yards or TDs to earn that incentive for the season
Current Number – This represents where the player currently stands on the season in that statistic
Number Needed – This represents the number that needs to be obtained by that player to earn the incentive for the 2021 season. The number in the () represents the number needed in Week 18 if applicable
Incentive Payout – This represents the dollar figure that player will earn for hitting that incentive in 2021
Recommended Player Prop – This represents the type of player prop we recommend you bet based on the incentive needed by that player. Please note, other props can be bet based on the information.
Player Props – This section represents what the actual player prop is on each site (DK = Draft Kings, FD = FanDuel and PP = Prize Picks)
Player Incentives and Week 18 Player Props
Player: Russell Wilson
Incentive: Completion Percentage
Current Number: 65.2%
Number Needed: 66%
Incentive Payout: $100,000
Recommended Player Prop: Completions
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
In order for Russell Wilson to hit the completion percentage mark of 66% on the year he would need to complete 75% of his passes in Week 18. Wilson has only hit that mark twice all season. In his prior matchup this year vs. Arizona he only completed 54% of his passes but did hit that mark in 1 game in 2020. The Cardinals this season have only allowed 65.8 completion percentage while only 3 QBs hit the 75% mark vs. Arizona all year. If no completion prop comes out, Wilson’s passing yards over is tempting in Week 18.Â
Player: Aaron Rodgers
Incentive: Top 3 in Completion Percentage
Current Number: 4th (68.6%)
Number Needed: 3rd (Kyler Murray 69%)
Incentive Payout: $100,000
Recommended Player Prop: Completions
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
It is fair to question how much the Packers will play their starters, but even in a half Aaron Rodgers can hit his incentives. Rodgers would need to complete roughly 76% of his passes in order to pass Kyler Murray for 3rd in Completion percentage. Rodgers has hit that mark 4 times in 2021. The Lions this season have allowed opponents to complete 65.8% of their passes and only 1 QB has hit the 76% mark on the year. That QB was Aaron Rodgers in Week 2.
Player: Aaron Rodgers
Incentive: Top 3 in Touchdowns
Current Number: Tied for 3rd (35)
Number Needed: Top 3 (Tied with Justin Herbert at 35)
Incentive Payout: $100,000
Recommended Player Prop: Passing Touchdowns
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
With the Chargers and Justin Herbert playing on Sunday Night, Aaron Rodgers will need to put up his production beforehand to secure his spot in the top 3. With Herbert putting up 3 TDs the last time he played the Raiders, Rodgers would most likely have to match that to stay in the top 3. Rodgers has hit that mark 6 times in 2021. The Lions have only allowed 4 QBs to throw for 3 TDs in a game. One of those QB was Rodgers with 4 back in Week 2.
Player: Tom Brady
Incentive: Top 5 in Passer Rating
Current Number: 8th (100.5)
Number Needed: 5th (Kirk Cousins 100.9)
Incentive Payout: $562,000
Recommended Player Prop: Passing Touchdowns
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
The Buccaneers props are our favorite on the week as we know Brady will be gunning for these incentives. Passer Rating is harder to predict, but the biggest driver of passer rating is TDs. Therefore, we lean in that direction if you want to choose a player prop. Currently the prop sits at 2.5 on DK after Brady only threw 1 TD in his first meeting vs. Carolina back in Week 16. Brady has thrown for 3 TDs or more in 7 games in 2021.Â
Player: Tom Brady
Incentive: Top 5 in Completion Percentage
Current Number: 13th (66.9)
Number Needed: 5th (Dak Prescott 68.4)
Incentive Payout: $562,000
Recommended Player Prop: Completions
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD ) (PP: TBD)
This player incentive is basically not obtainable, but we are mentioning it because don’t be surprised if this helps boost Tom Brady’s overall volume. Brady would need to go nearly perfect on 33 or more attempts to pass Dak Prescott for 5th. However, if Brady does push the gas peddle in order to secure the #2 seed and 2 home playoff games then his completions and passing yards overs could be solid props.
Player: Stefon Diggs
Incentive: Receptions
Current Number: 94
Number Needed: 100 (6)
Incentive Payout: $658,333
Recommended Player Prop: Receptions
Player Props: (DK: 6.5) (FD: 6.5) (PP: TBD)
Stefon Diggs is looking to secure his second straight 100 reception campaign and a huge bag is on the line as well. Diggs needs just 6 catches to get his $658k incentive. This is a mark he has hit 9 times in 2021 including back in Week 10 vs. the Jets. The Jets this season have allowed 8 WRs to catch 6 or more passes in a game. The 6.5 player prop does make you worry if they stop Diggs on the dime, but the Bills still need to win to clinch the AFC East so expect a full dose of Diggs this week.
Player: Stefon Diggs
Incentive: Receiving Yards
Current Number: 1,144
Number Needed: 1,375 (231)
Incentive Payout: $658,333
Recommended Player Prop: Receiving Yards
Player Props: (DK: 74.5) (FD: 70.5) (PP: 70.5)
Similar to the reception prop Stefon Diggs is looking to secure his second straight season of at least 1,375 receiving yards. Diggs needs a monster day of 231 receiving yards to hit his incentive. It is notable that Diggs best receiving day in 2021 came vs. the Jets back in Week 10 going for 162 yards. The incentive might not be doable, but the additional volume should help him crush his receiving yards prop this week.
Player: Kendrick Bourne
Incentive: Receptions
Current Number: 52
Number Needed: 60 (8)
Incentive Payout: $250,000
Recommended Player Prop: Receptions
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD ) (PP: TBD)
Kendrick Bourne has quietly had his best season of his career topping 50 receptions and 700 yards for the first time in his career. This has allowed Bourne to already collect $500k in incentives. Bourne hasn’t caught more than 6 passes in a game this season, but it is notable that he saw a solid 20% target share in Week 17. Only 2 WRs this season have caught 8 passes vs. the Dolphins this season. That being said, the player props will certainly be a lot lower for Bourne making them enticing for Week 18.
Player: Kendrick Bourne
Incentive: Receiving Yards
Current Number: 776
Number Needed: 800/900 (24 and 124)
Incentive Payout: $250,000
Recommended Player Prop: Receiving Yards
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
Kendrick Bourne should easily pass 24 receiving yards to earn his 3rd 250k incentive this season. The question comes can he get to 124? Probably not as his season high is just 98 yards. However, like most of these props any additional incentive to get him looks could help get us the over for his receiving prop. The Dolphins have allowed 6 WRs to top 100 yards this season so depending on what the receiving yard prop is for Bourne, it could be a buy in Week 18.
Player: A.J. Green
Incentive: Receptions
Current Number: 50
Number Needed: 60 (10)
Incentive Payout: $250,000
Recommended Player Prop: Receptions
Player Props: (DK: 4.5) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
2021 was a huge bounce back campaign for A.J. Green. Green topped 50 receptions and 800 yards for the first time since 2017. Green has already collected $1 million in incentives by hitting 4 benchmarks already. This week he does have a long way to go as he needs 10 receptions to get his next reception incentive. However, his player prop is right at 4.5 which is a mark he hit 5 times this season. 17 WRs have surpassed 4.5 receptions vs. Seattle this season.
Player: A.J. Green
Incentive: Receiving Yards
Current Number: 825
Number Needed: 900 (75)
Incentive Payout: $250,000
Recommended Player Prop: Receiving Yards
Player Props: (DK: 54.5) (FD: 55.5) (PP: 49.5)
The receiving yards incentive/prop for A.J. Green seems a lot more doable. Green has hit the 75 yard mark 4 times in 2021. Meanwhile his player prop is coming in around 54.5. Green has hit the 55 mark 8 times in 2021. 16 WRs have surpassed 55 yards receiving vs. Seattle this season.Â
Player: Rob Gronkowski
Incentive: Receptions
Current Number: 48
Number Needed: 55 (7)
Incentive Payout: $500,000
Recommended Player Prop: Receptions
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
The Rob Gronkowski incentives and player props are our #1 plays for Week 18. With no Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown, Gronk is destined to be peppered with targets all day. Gronk has played in 10 full games and has hit 7 receptions in 3 of them. Gronk didn’t perform vs. the Panthers back in Week 16 (1-23), but a bounce back is in the cards with so much money on the line. It is important to note, no TE has hit 7 receptions this season vs. the Panthers.
Player: Rob Gronkowski
Incentive: Receiving Yards
Current Number: 665
Number Needed: 750 (85)
Incentive Payout: $500,000
Recommended Player Prop: Receiving Yards
Player Props: (DK: 65.5) (FD: TBD ) (PP: 65.5)
The 2nd prop for Rob Gronkowski is receiving yards. Gronk needs 85 receiving yards to get the $500k incentive. The great news is his player prop falls about 20 yards below that at 65.5. Gronk has hit the 65 yard mark 4 times and the 85-yard mark 3 times. The Panthers DST is tough vs. TEs as they only allowed 1 TE to top the 65 mark and 0 over 85 yards all season.
Player: Rob Gronkowski
Incentive: Receiving Touchdowns
Current Number: 6
Number Needed: 9 (3)
Incentive Payout: $500,000
Recommended Player Prop: Receiving Touchdowns/Anytime TD
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (FD: TBD) (PP: TBD)
We should all be patiently waiting to see if any of the sportsbooks put out a Rob Gronkowski TD line and if so will it be .5 or 1.5. If the line comes out at .5 it might be the best bet of all of these props on the week. Gronk has surprisingly only caught a TD in 3 games this season, but all 3 games were multiple TD games. Gronk hasn’t scored 3 receiving TDs in a game since Week 1 of 2015 sooooo maybe he is due? Â
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday Sleeper, and Football Outsiders
