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One of my favorite movie scenes is an obscure moment in Batman (1989) where Grissom is talking to his associate Jack Napier (pre Joker transformation). They are in a deserted office and Grissom, Napier’s boss, is telling him about why he was chosen for an important job. Grissom grips him by the shoulders and hisses “you’re my…numbah one…guuyyy”. It’s both creepy and awesome. I feel like I am telling this to each and every player on a weekly basis as I slide them into my lineup.

Since I am in an all time high 18 fantasy football leagues this year, I have a lot of guys. But only a select few have the honor of being so cherished by me that I have invested heavily. These leagues range from a long running standard redraft to  startup 2 QB superflex PPR devy league and everything in between. Because of this, some draft strategies have been different than others, but overall I clearly have some soft spots for certain players.  If you like reading about other people’s fake football teams, proceed!

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ADP Royal Rumble V will feature a trio of WR3s: Robby Anderson, Dede Westbrook and Will Fuller. With an overall ADP separated by 5 picks, choosing from this group is a situation drafters are finding themselves in often. At this point in the draft you should be shooting for full upside, because even if you miss, you’re no worse just streaming and mining the waiver wire.  Now, without further ado, let’s get ready to RUUUUUUUMMMMMBBBBLLLLEEEE!

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Weighted opportunity is a metric that recalibrates the value of touches based on the expected fantasy points for carries (less valuable) and receptions (more valuable). Thanks to player profiler, I was able to see if there was a strong correlation between running back weighted opportunities per game (WO) and fantasy points per game (FP) in 2018. Sure enough, there was a strong correlation with an r2 value of 0.8864.

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A friend and I were recently texting during a mock draft and he kept finding pockets of players with similar ADP and seemingly similar upside. We would go back and forth making points and counterpoints, but in the end it was just a gut call. I realized that may not be the optimal way to make that choice on the fly and ventured to create a “checklist” of sorts to compare similar players alongside each other.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The tight end (TE) position is an odd one for fantasy purposes. Every year there are a handful of monsters that are true weekly difference makers but after that the position is mostly the same. In 2018, 63.1 fantasy points separated TE4 from TE6 while TE6 and TE41 had about 63.1 points between them. Similarly in 2017, TE1 and TE5 were separated by 48.7 points which was the same margin between TE5 and TE22. So, if you miss out on the top talent, it’s worth waiting for  an extremely cheap option that has the upside of entering the elite group.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

A friend and I were recently texting during a mock draft and he kept finding pockets of players with similar ADP and seemingly similar upside. We would go back and forth making points and counterpoints, but in the end it was just a gut call. I realized that may not be the optimal way to make that choice on the fly and ventured to create a “checklist” of sorts to compare similar players alongside each other.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As drafts lag on, many fantasy players are tempted to just log off and auto-pick the scrubs. This is a mistake. If nothing else, hand-selecting potential gold mines late eliminates the need to spend your precious FAAB down the line. With training camps opening there are a handful of forgotten names that seem to be floating to the top of depth charts. As the drumbeat builds, ADPs may rise but you can still obtain these 3 players at the end of 12 team drafts.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

A friend and I were recently texting during a mock draft and he kept finding pockets of players with similar ADP and seemingly similar upside. We would go back and forth making points and counterpoints, but in the end it was just a gut call. I realized that may not be the optimal way to make that choice on the fly and ventured to create a “checklist” of sorts to compare similar players alongside each other.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Picture yourself in a bizarro-world casino where the gin and tonics aren’t watered down and the roulette table has more black spaces than red. After counting a few times you’re certain there are more black spaces on the wheel. You notice other gamblers are getting normal payouts for bets on black, one-to-one. The odds of winning are greater but the risk is the same as betting red. So I ask you, hypothetical gambler: why would you ever bet on red?

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A friend and I were recently texting during a mock draft and he kept finding pockets of players with similar ADP and seemingly similar upside. We would go back and forth making points and counterpoints, but in the end, with the timer running out, it was just a gut call. I realized that may not be optimal and ventured to create a “checklist” of sorts to compare similar players alongside each other.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The first thing that should be written here is that Chris Godwin is good at football. He may even be great and there’s a chance he’s elite. Unfortunately, the founding fathers of our game decided not to reward actual skill, but rather on field production in real games. Of course, this is a 101-level point to make, but it’s worth remembering. A tremendous amount of buzz is building for Godwin and recently an article was published entitled Why You Should Worship at the Altar of Chris Godwin. Now, this is not intended to be a rebuttal to that article in particular but more a sensible tapping of the breaks as draft season approaches.

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A sleeper is not a handcuff. Handcuffs are players who, in the event of an injury, can be projected to inherit significant playing time. Sleepers are players that have an assumed role and stand-alone value but an increase in efficiency or volume will cause them to significantly out-perform their ADP. Handcuffs are largely not worth drafting because they require injury “luck” to be useful. However, sleepers are worth a late round selection because they can build momentum as roles are defined throughout the preseason. The goal of smart drafters should be to have this type of player rostered before the buzz escalates.

Please, blog, may I have some more?