If you haven’t read the first article from week 1 Click Here. That article provides the overview on what we are doing for this article. The goal of this article is to find wide receivers to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide.

The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the NFC home games in week 2 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position this season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you haven’t read the first article from week 1 Click Here. That article provides an overview on what we are doing for this article. The goal of this analysis is to find wide receivers to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows vs. the slot and out wide.

The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 2 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position this season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you haven’t read the first article on the AFC Home Games Click Here. That article provides an overview on what we are doing for this article.

The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the NFC home games in week 1 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position last season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

In this article we will break down how many fantasy points a defense allows to wide receivers from the slot vs. out wide. The analysis will hopefully help us better identify which types of wide receivers to target each week based on where they see the most targets.

For week 1 we will review how the teams in the AFC home games faired vs. slot and outside wide receivers in 2020.  We will then look at what has potentially changed from last season and what information could repeat in 2021. The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 1 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position last season.

 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 2

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who you should potentially fade at their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point less per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Regression Candidates

 

Player: Travis Kelce

2020 FPPR: 2.48

Career avg. FPPR: 2.26

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

AFC HOME GAMES
Team Slot PPG Wide PPG Total PPG % Slot
TEN 12.3 24.6 36.9 33%
SEA 13.1 21.3 34.4 38%
MIN 10.5 23.7 34.2 31%
HOU 13.2 19.7 32.9 40%
CLE 13.3 19.3 32.6 41%
MIA 11.3 20.8 32.1 35%
JAX 10.4 21.3 31.7 33%
LV 13.4 18.2 31.6 42%
IND 11.9 18.9 30.8 39%
CIN 9 21.1 30.1 30%
ARI 11.5 17.5 28.9 40%
PIT 11.4 17 28.4 40%
NE 10.6 17.6 28.2 38%
BUF 8.8 17.6 26.4 33%
BAL 9.9 16.3 26.2 38%
KC 8.9 16.8 25.7 35%
2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
17.3 15.8

 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 1

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who will potentially outkick their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point more per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates

Player: Gerald Everett

2020 FPPR: 1.66

Career avg. FPPR: 2.10

FPPR Variance: -21%

Please, blog, may I have some more?

In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point less per game they need to average four receptions per game and see a decrease in FPPR of .25.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.

A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point more per game they need to average four receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .25. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis – Regression Candidates

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 In this article we breakdown Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the running back position to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

As a reminder the league average for FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half point less per game they need to catch 40 passes and see a drop in FPPR of .2.

 

2021 FPPR Negative Regression Candidates

Player: Chris Carson

2020 FPPR: 1.92

Career avg. FPPR: 1.75

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
14.1 13.6

 

Chris Carson has been as consistent as they come over the past three seasons seeing his PPG range from 14-14.8. However, somewhat of a red flag heading into 2021 was Carson’s big drop in touches. From 2019 to 2020 Carson saw his touches decrease from 21.5 to 14.8. Carson was able to keep up his PPG by seeing a 16% increase in his PPRA and 10% increase FPPR vs. his career norms. Based on what we learned over these past few articles one if not both will drop in 2021.

The next question we need to answer is “what does the floor for Carson look like if he were to return to his career norms without an uptick in touches”. The short answer is 12.4 PPG. That would put him outside the top 25 running backs in PPG last season. Currently Carson’s ADP is RB18 which isn’t a terrible price to pay based on his PPG over the past three seasons. Currently backup RB Rashaad Penny is out again so Carson could be leaned on early. This makes it likely for him to see a bump in touches in 2021.   

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Before you go any further if you haven’t read the original article on the Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis (PPRA), we recommend you read that first. You can find that article here. In Part 1 of the running back edition, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR outliers from 2020 to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.

Yes, we will be diving into the receiving portion of our analysis, but the concept is the same as the original PPRA article. The biggest difference is the numbers are a bit higher. For example, the league average FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half-point more per game they need to catch 40 passes and see an uptick in FPPR of .2.

The running backs who saw an outlier season of -10% in FPPR on average saw an increase of .47 or 40% increase in FPPR the next season. That means for every 40 receptions these running backs saw an increase of just over one fantasy point per game in .5 PPR the year after they had an outlier season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?