Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find those articles here:
Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football
Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis – Regression Candidates
Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1
In this article we breakdown Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the running back position to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.
As a reminder the league average for FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half point less per game they need to catch 40 passes and see a drop in FPPR of .2.
2021 FPPR Negative Regression Candidates
Player: Chris Carson
2020 FPPR: 1.92
Career avg. FPPR: 1.75
FPPR Variance: 10%
Chris Carson has been as consistent as they come over the past three seasons seeing his PPG range from 14-14.8. However, somewhat of a red flag heading into 2021 was Carson’s big drop in touches. From 2019 to 2020 Carson saw his touches decrease from 21.5 to 14.8. Carson was able to keep up his PPG by seeing a 16% increase in his PPRA and 10% increase FPPR vs. his career norms. Based on what we learned over these past few articles one if not both will drop in 2021.
The next question we need to answer is “what does the floor for Carson look like if he were to return to his career norms without an uptick in touches”. The short answer is 12.4 PPG. That would put him outside the top 25 running backs in PPG last season. Currently Carson’s ADP is RB18 which isn’t a terrible price to pay based on his PPG over the past three seasons. Currently backup RB Rashaad Penny is out again so Carson could be leaned on early. This makes it likely for him to see a bump in touches in 2021.
Please, blog, may I have some more?