Well, we’ve reached the end of the (non-silly) Daily Fantasy Football season! I’d like to thank all of you, my loyal readers, for your weekly support. There will be DFS next week, but Week 17 cash games get really silly as so many teams end up resting starters and/or giving heavy volume to guys you’ve never heard of, which is why Week 16 really is the functional end of the non-silly Daily Fantasy Football season. I hope 2018 was profitable for you, and I hope this article helped. Now let’s get to the picks!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Man it would have been very interesting had yesterday’s Chargers-Chiefs game been on the main slate. That’s because Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were all fantastic plays (particularly Keenan Allen, who Rudy’s projections had as the #1 WR on the slate by far), and would have all had significant ownership. You’d be looking at many lineups with a bad performance (Kelce and his 9.2) and a complete dud (the zero from Allen as he got hurt). You’d also be looking at a lot of lineups that picked either Jackson or Damien Williams, but not both, and the difference (27.3 for Williams, 16 for Jackson) would likely put the Jackson lineups drawing very thin, and possibly render them drawing dead if they played Allen and Kelce with that money. Alas, the game was on Thursday, so while it made for great TV, and made for an interesting showdown slate, only those who played the full Thursday-Monday slate care about it’s effects on a full slate. If you did play the Thursday-Monday slate, and you played Keenan Allen (and you did not play Jackson or Williams), I’d highly suggest pivoting your lineup to high-upside non-chalk plays to try to make up the lost ground.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

For this week’s article I am going to try something new. Let’s get a conversation going on a topic that’s DFS-related but not particularly substantive (and thus probably won’t be the topic of discussion anywhere else). Is it a good thing that the Rams/Chiefs game won’t be on the main slate? I’m not talking about the general point about the value of having the MNF game on the slate (as they used to do a few years ago), rather, just specifically the Rams/Chiefs game, which has the highest total since 1986 and would have had numerous guys who would have been main cogs of your lineup had the game been on the slate (Gurley, at his slightly lowered price of $10,600, and Tyreek Hill at $7,900 would have been two monster plays, Kelce at $7,800, Woods at $7,500, and Cooks at $7,800 would have been expensive pieces but reasonable plays, Josh Reynolds at $5,000 would have been an interesting punt, and while Patrick Mahomes at $9,500 may have been priced out of viability, Jared Goff at $8,300 would certainly be in the conversation). So, what say you, my loyal readers? Feel free to post as to whether you think it’s a good thing or a bad thing that the Rams/Chiefs game isn’t on the slate (or if you think it’s good for cash games, bad for GPPs, or vice versa, that’s certainly an interesting take too). I’d love to hear everyone’s opinion on this…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Well dear readers, let’s just get right to the good stuff today.

QB

Ryan Fitzpatrick, $7,600 – “Bucs QB” would be worth playing since you wouldn’t have to deal with the possible benching. Ryan Fitzpatrick, on his own, carries some risk of being benched. But that risk is entirely outweighed by the fact that he’s the starting QB in Air Monken. And Air Monken throws a lot. And volume is king.  

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The baseball article I write during the baseball season has a section “Doing Lines In Vegas” but here in NFL season, we’re “Doing Lines With cinthree.” If anyone is willing bet me that Nathan Peterman will outscore the Chicago Bears defense in fantasy points tomorrow, I will take that bet. Peterman’s not going to break 10 and the Bears are probably putting up 12-15 (which makes them a bad play in DFS).

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We finally have a decision on Todd Gurley. He’s been an absolute stone cold mortal lock so far this season given that he’s been under $10K for most of the season and was only $10.2K last week – an insanely cheap price given the team he plays for and the role he has on it (namely, that once the Rams get into the red zone, something they do with insane frequency, they just give it to Gurley and let him run it in, and also, they’re the best team in football so they have a big lead late and let Gurley get all the kill-clock yards in the 4th quarter). FanDuel finally jacked his price up to something like $1,000,000,000 (note – it may just be $11,000, as I may be exaggerating for comedic effect). Now it becomes a decision. He’s still an absolute monster. But is he worth it? Ultimately it’ll come down to how comfortable you are with the value that you’ll need to play to roster him. And if you’re unsure on who to play, check out Rudy’s projections here at Razzball!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The start of this week had no RB value and it just looked like a stuff Gurley, Zeek and McCaffrey into lineups week, but that’s the fun of the NFL. We saw the Browns make a good trade and get rid of Hyde to let Chubb and Duke run wild (though i’m still skeptical that coaching staff can figure out how to use those two). Theo Riddick is out, opening up Kerryon Johnson as a 3-down back and I became way more OK with Peyton Barber value as the week progressed. All this value opening up combined with a lot of the elite RBs not being on the main slate means that we might, for the first time, all season, have a WR in the flex and win the million dollars. So while normally I’d say if you’re rolling a WR in flex in FanDuel GPPs, it’s 100% wrong, the lack of stone cold locks at RB this week means you can probably get away with a WR and in fact you could conceivably place high and maybe even win. But if one or two of the value RBs go off, you’re going to need them and odds are your WR-as-flex GPP is in a boatload of trouble.

Please, blog, may I have some more?