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You almost had me? You never had me – you never had your car… Granny shiftin’ not double clutchin’ like you should. You’re lucky that hundred shot of NOS didn’t blow the welds on the intake! You almost had me? Back in 1999, I bought a 1997 Mitsubishi Eclipse GSX. I had wanted one of these cars for a while because I knew they had potential to be very fast with just a few minor modifications. I didn’t know much about cars back then, but I was determined to learn. Over the course of the next two or three years, I gradually upgraded my DSM. During that time, I made a handful of great friends that helped me with the bigger projects that were beyond my scope of skills. I was able to up-install an Injen intake, upper intercooler pipe, turbo timer, boost controller, and even an A’PEXi Super AFC. But when it came to swapping out the stock T25 turbo with a 16G, or the wimpy side mounted intercooler with a GReddy front mounted intercooler, I had to rely on the expertise of GSXtreme (aka JM Fabrications). He had a GSX too. I was a pretty red color and it was fast. Real fast. There was something extremely rewarding (and fun) about putting time and effort into my car and then taking it to the quarter-mile track to evaluate the upgrades. Eventually I was able to drive that 2.0-liter DOHC 4-cylinder engine, 4-speed automatic transmission, all wheel drive car to a sub 13-second quarter mile (12.95). But the most satisfying reward was the ability to embarrass Mustangs on a routine basis. I lived in the Trenton, NJ area at the time, and on Sunday nights everyone would meet in the Best Buy parking lot on Route 1, just north of Philly. We’d admire each others’ rides, bullsh*t for a while, and then head to the side streets and race. It was fast and the furious before The Fast and The Furious was fast or furious. Fast forward fifteen years and I still have that car. With just 80,000 miles, it sits in my garage and is never driven, but I still have it. I should probably sell it, and would if I got a fair offer, but I am just not motivated to let it go.

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I think I have an obsession with stats, and I’m not sure if it is a good thing or a sickness. Every time I look at the numbers, I see more numbers. I’m currently in the early stages of beginning to learn about regression analysis. And by early stages, I mean that it’s a topic I’d really like to learn more about. I really should have paid attention in college instead of whatever it was I was doing the few times I actually showed up to class. Back to Fantasy Football. In the preseason, I talked about the upgrades to The Stats Machine (TSM) for this season. One of the biggest changes was the fact that opposing defenses will now be factored into offensive performances. This is still true, but will not go into effect until after Week 3. TSM needs at least three weeks of defensive statistics in order to generate defensive rankings. With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s get to our Week 1 results…

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ROAD-HOUSE

In 1989, James Dalton gave us three simple rules. One, never underestimate your opponent. Expect the unexpected. Two, take it outside. Never start anything inside the bar unless it’s absolutely necessary. And three, be nice. I bet most of you had no idea that Dalton’s first name was actually James. And for those of you that have no idea who Dalton is, shame on you! Close your browser, get yourself a six pack of brewskis and a bottle of Jack and watch Road House. Dalton, portrayed by the late Patrick Swayze, was one of the toughest, ass kicking dudes in movie history. Recruited by the owner of The Double Deuce, a rowdy dive bar in Missouri, Dalton moves from NYC to take over security and help clean up the violence that is destroying the bar. Dalton is a professional “cooler”, or bouncer for those of you less informed readers. Despite being able to handout a beatdown like it’s his job (which it is), Dalton doesn’t actually like violence. He has a degree in philosophy and practices thai chi. This, however, does not keep him from literally ripping Jimmy’s throat out with his bare hands. Bottom line, Road House is one bad ass film. From Jasper, Missouri we travel nearly 650 miles east to Cincinnati. From one Dalton to another. My lineup of waiver wire fodder is led at quarterback by The Red Rifle, aka Andy Dalton. No relation to James.

Here’s the complete lineup…

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A palindrome is a word, phrase, number, or other sequence of characters which reads the same backward or forward. Allowances may be made for adjustments to capital letters, punctuation, and word dividers.” – Wikipedia

The word “stats” is a palindrome. So are words like “kayak”, “level” and “radar”. How about “race car” or “top spot”. Even phrases such as “Madam I’m Adam” and “never odd or even” are palindromes. Why isn’t the word “palindrome” a palindrome? Shouldn’t they have picked a word that was? Palindrome spelled backwards spells “semordnilap”, which is apparently defined as a word that spells a different word when spelled backwards. Some examples include “stressed”, “war”, “evil”, “spoon” and even “sports”. But what if C-A-T really spelled dog?

So how does any of this help you with your fantasy football team? It doesn’t. However when I started writing this post and typed the word “stats” I realized for the first time that it was in fact a palindrome and felt compelled to mention it…

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If you read the title to this post and said to yourself, “Who the heck is Mitchell Friedman”, then I have done my job in selecting a title.

Inspired by perhaps the best sports movie ever, the “Who Are These Guys” series looks back at the previous week and compiles a starting lineup of players that would have your league mates mocking you and your opponent licking his chops as he foolishly commits the bitter offense of counting his chickens before they’ve hatched. While the players selected each week are based entirely on hindsight, the purpose is to show you that every week it is possible to create a lineup that does not contain a single stud, yet said lineup would trample one containing only studs. Duds over studs. Bros before hoes. That’s how it goes…

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First allow me to send my condolences to any of you that have already had your draft and in said draft you drafted Jordy Nelson. This is one of the main reasons I won’t allow my leagues to draft more than five days before the start of the season. Ranking players within the same position is relatively easy, but comparing players across positions is a much more difficult task. However, it is an essential exercise in order to figure out who to draft, and when. Using my 2015 projections and both VORP (value over replacement player) and VOAP (value over average player), I have ranked the top 543 players. Here are my first 8 rounds in a 12-team league…

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As promised, I have completed my homework for this year’s upcoming auctions and am back to share the results. In part 3 of my “Points Per Dollar” series (Part 1, Part 2), I have put together my 2015 projections, converted them to fantasy points and compared each player against his current going auction value. For this data I have gathered the results of thousands of completed 2015 auctions. It’s important to note that in determining a player’s PPD you must use their going market value. Many sites, Razzball included, publish a cheatsheet of each player’s auction values. This is helpful as a guideline, but that’s all they are. Guidelines. It’s one thing for an expert to say Aaron Rodgers is worth $36, but what I really care about is the fact that he is actually going for $44 in real auctions. That’s a more indicative value as to what Rodgers will actually cost me on auction day.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!

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A long time ago (about a year) in a galaxy (Razzball) far, far way…

Guess who’s back, back again. The Stats Machine’s back, tell a friend. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Unlike most sequels that barely measure up to the original, the first two Godfather movies excluded, the second coming of the Stats Machine looks to build on a successful model, expanding and even deepening an already superb, numbers-driven effort. For those whom are unaware of, or need a refresher on the origin of the Stats Machine (TSM), you can find that here.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!

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In my last post, The Legend of the Bid Button, and the first in this series, I examined and explained my strategy for approaching auction drafts. The key stat that I rely upon is “points per dollar” (PPD). How many fantasy points a player is expected to get me for each auction dollar I spend on him. If you have not read that post, please take ten minutes and do so. For those that have already done so and are back for round two, welcome back. While we have ten minutes to kill as we wait for everyone else to catch up, here is a link to a sub-five minute speed run of Super Mario Brothers. Feel free to watch it twice. I know these guys use tools to help accomplish this, but as someone who played this game back when it first came out, this is still pretty awesome.

Ok, now let’s get back to our regularly scheduled programming. I’d like to take a look back at last season’s PPD heroes and zeros…

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In my never-ending quest to save Princess Zelda and keep peace in Hyrule, I have attempted to conquer the demon that is the fantasy football auction draft. And let me tell you, this is one beast that is quite elusive. With the ability to change dynamically with a click of the “bid” button, the auction draft can overwhelm even the most prepared fantasy hero. The only way to have a chance at victory is to equip thyself with as many tools as you can, and if all else fails, reach into your bomb bag, light, throw and run.

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thestats
The 2014 fantasy football season is over Johnny. It’s over!

So now let’s take a few moments to talk about the players that The Stats Machine has a hard on for.  I’m not sure I like the way that came out, so I’m going to rephrase it. Let’s take a few moments to talk about the players that get The Stats Machine’s bits and bytes on information overload. Without further ado-do…

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T.Y. Hilton did not play on Sunday due to hamstring injury. LeGarrette Blount sat out with a bum shoulder. And in San Diego, Ryan Mathews was inactive for the second straight week with a sore vagina. Oh wait, that was last month… it was an ankle this time. It’s hard to keep track with him anymore. Besides, who cares about the Chargers? Just kidding Jay! I mean with Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers joining the Padres, aren’t they the team to root for now in San Diego? That outfield sounds like the ghosts of fantasy baseball outfield MVPs of the past, present and future!

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