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We have been waiting for a fantasy football running back breakthrough and it is finally here in the form of Devin Singletary. Singletary was cemented behind Frank Gore and battled a hamstring injury for the first half of the season. However, the last two weeks he is receiving a 66% or higher snap share and broke out in Week 9 with 20 carries, 3 catches, 140 total yards, and a touchdown. As long as his hamstring can hold up he looks like the lead back behind the #3 offensive line in adjusted line yards in a run heavy offense. All of these positives along with the fact he gets the Browns and the Dolphins in the next two weeks to continue the forward momentum. As noted last week, I’m not sure that there are many opportunities like this that will come along the rest of the year outside of direct stud running back handcuffs. Spend your FAAB. Check the trade market. Get the guy. He could be a league winner.

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I noted last week that I was looking forward to using the mid-season NFL point to provide a note or blurb on every team. I’ve started with 16 teams and will complete the rest of the league next week. It was honestly a fun exercise. I often get stuck in the week to week grind of the NFL season and forget to look ahead to take advantage of buy/sell opportunities, bottom of the barrel waiver wire options, and trying to catch trends before they happen. Hopefully, there is something in every one of these teams that you can use either in season-long fantasy, DFS, or in your “office pool”.

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As I’ve gone through the process of completing the rest of season rankings, I’ve noticed a trend. The number of players that I have a strong confidence in for the rest of the season is dwindling… Fast! Whether this is from the regular attrition of the NFL season or the changing landscape of the way coaches deploy their personnel, it is happening.

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The NFL year goes by so fast and the fantasy football season with it. As we approach the halfway point of 2019, I plan to spend next week’s article with a blurb on the second half outlook of each team, or player from each team, from a data point perspective. For this week though we stick with the norm of finding trends and in-week matchups we can expose. Hope everyone has a great finish to the first half of the fantasy season!

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Remember when in-season trades never happened in the NFL? That was so, so, so long ago. This season we have had several notable players moved ranging from all-pro defensive backs to noted aerospace engineers (Josh Dobbs). However, the trade of Emmanuel Sanders has opened the opportunity for Courtland Sutton to continue his rise to fantasy glory. Sutton had already made a second-year jump prior to the trade and is currently sitting as the WR12 in half-PPR leagues. Sutton’s metrics support his rise to prominence with his player profiler athletic comparison being Alshon Jeffrey. He is 9th in weighted opportunities, top 20 in air yards, and top 20 in targets per game. His quarterback already stinks out loud so any mid-season change to a rookie, if Drew Lock were to get healthy, should have a minimal effect on his rest of season play. Expect the Denver Broncos to remain generally pesky as they fulfill a 5-6 win team destiny, and their air game to funnel through Courtland Sutton for the remainder of the 2019 season.

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You see the struggles of the Cleveland Browns. You see the incompetence of Freddie Kitchens. You see the public turning on Baker Mayfield.

I beg of you. Please don’t sell Odell Beckham Jr.

The list of wide receivers in the last 2 years who finished top 10 in targets and top 5 in overall air yards that didn’t finish in the top 10 of fantasy football wide receivers is blank. Beckham is currently tied for 9th in targets per game among wide receivers. He is 5th in overall air yards. He is currently the 22nd rated WR in PPR. It is incredibly unlikely with the usage he is receiving, even factoring in a poor schedule, that OBJ doesn’t end the year as a WR1. Do not bail! In the interest of full disclosure I predicted Beckham as my fantasy MVP in the pre-season so I’m going down with this ship, but I’ve provided a really compelling argument to go along with my bias!

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You may think putting NFL players names next to a number 1-80 in an excel spreadsheet is easy but LET ME TELL YOU SOMETHING!!!

It is.

Getting the right names… in the right order… slightly more difficult.

The toughest component I’ve found to establishing the rest of seasons rankings is deciphering current injury situations and how the reintegration of personnel will affect team’s offenses moving forward. With that in mind, this week I thought it would be more beneficial to detail some situations that are questionable, and some players in the top 30 with significant injury news.

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“Change is good” – Someone.

I’m trying something a little bit different this week. I’ve given some quick hit stats and blurbs from my normal sources instead of finding the top 3-4 and elaborating on what I believe it means for the week and how we can take advantage of it. Let me know in the comment section if you like this style better, worse, or would even prefer a hybrid. The positives about this style is your going to get a higher volume of nuggets that influence players/teams and it is far easier to consume. The negative is they aren’t particularly as in depth, and you may have to draw your own conclusions on how to use it. Anyway, I write so you can consume so let me know what you think!

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Chris Godwin was the industry sweetheart coming into the 2019 season. He was on approximately 99% of the industries undervalued/sleeper lists for his utilization in Bruce Arians “Big Slot” role. His draft day price rose to a 4/5th round regular by opening week. Normally, when that much value is sucked out of a rising draft stock it is arguably better to simply avoid for the price. Luckily, I remained neutral, because after 5 weeks it is evident that Chris Godwin is an elite wide receiver in this role. He is the current WR1 in both standard and PPR formats. He is top 12 in targets and 8th in Air Yards. As noted last week the vital component of this passing game for fantasy value is they push the ball downfield, increasing the value of a target, and compress the target share between two elite players. Godwin is an extremely talented player in terms of metrics and is in the perfect spot to continue to provide WR1 value for the rest of the season.

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People can’t stop talking about the Arizona Cardinals. I’ve seen people refer to the Cardinals offense as the horizontal raid. I’ve seen people say the success is bubbling. I’ve seen people pointing to the schedule whilst saying, “September is hard, October is easy.” It seems that the expected range of outcomes remains as wide as ever. This variance in opinions has encouraged me to breakdown what I believe is happening and what the future looks like for the Arizona offense to lead off this week’s article.

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I’ll be honest… I haven’t paid much attention to rest of season rankings in my fantasy football playing time. So when MB asked me to rank the top 80 flex players the rest of the way it was a new adventure for me. Often times when you do something new it brings an entirely new perspective to the entire process. With that in mind when I finished my list the first thing I did was check to compare to the industry. The differences I found most significant are listed below and I will continue to call those major differences out with an explanation and blurb on a weekly basis. Hopefully you find these rest of season rankings useful and it can stir up some discussion. These rankings are without QBs and based on half PPR setting in a standard 1 QB/2 RB/2-3 WR/1 Flex league. The rankings shouldn’t necessarily be used for a trade value chart, they are a combination of past success and current situation to quantify a future value in my eyes. Use that mindset and apply that value to your team’s current context in terms of league standings and roster construction before making any transactions.

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I thought in this week’s lede I would further detail my general process for breaking down NFL games. There are a million different approaches, but to be successful everyone needs to find a method and refine it constantly. My process for breaking down games starts with taking the entire slate and checking the injury report prior to moving to line of scrimmage. This is where significant edges are found even in today’s game. I check pressure rates, adjusted line yard data, and articles pertaining to the big guys to find if there is a significant advantage terms of pass rush, or the ability to run the football. If there is an advantage at the line of scrimmage positively, we must ensure we are working in a game environment in which the coach that has the advantage will take the edge. Alternatively, if the edge is a negative, is the quarterback/coach intelligent and talented enough to beat it? The final step is to compare the current secondary using success rates, target rates, yards allowed per target, etc. versus the talent and scheme in the passing game. That information is again tied back to if the coach and quarterback are talented enough to take advantage. Essentially, what I provide to you are the most important notes found in breaking down the individual games and looking at players statistics for the entire seasons. Here are those edges for week 4.

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