Pulling a title from the great run that Eddie Murphy had on Saturday Night Live reminds me of the sense of humor we need to have when we play fantasy football. He had so many great moments, actually too many to list, unlike my fantasy season that has had three good moments. This week, I’m going to look at a hot pickup vs. a draft day dud, and a receiver battle that the experts are pretty split on. As usual, this is my two cents and a look into my process to help you make your calls. I don’t want to get all blah-blah wordy-word on you, so let’s just dive in head first and bang this out… hunh, that sounds like my old hookup philosophy in my teens.

Note: All evaluations are based on 0.5 PPR, and ranks are from FantasyPros.com.

 

Mike Evans (76) vs. Brandon LaFell (75)

Evans vs LaFell | FindTheBest

If opportunity breeds success, than Mike Evans will edge out Brandon LaFell. He’s averaged more targets (7.3 to 5) over the last three weeks, and unlike LaFell, is on a team we can assume will be playing from behind almost every week. That kind of opportunity is something we like around here, because garbage time counts all the same. It’s the reality of teams like the Bucs, who suck like few others. This week though, the Bucs get the Vikings and have the opportunity to win a ball game, while the Patriots get the “who knows what they will do” from week-to-week Bears at Foxborough. I am not a fan of owning Patriots receivers this year, even though I own Julian Edelman on one team. I don’t like it one bit, and I get a little sick each week with the uncertainty of what he’ll give me. The “distribution” in New England will always be hard to predict, and just look at the backfield as a sign to stay away. Mike Evans, because he’s not the number one, can be in the same boat, but I think the targets tell his story going forward. Hey Jack, what about Louis Murphy and his 9 targets a week average? Yeah, he’s there too, and he can act as a barrier from Evans reaching his full potential, but at the end of the day, with the lackluster run game in Tampa, we will see a lot of pass attempts week-to-week. I have to agree with the experts on this one being a coin flip, but if we flip that coin ten times, then I will predict Evans wins seven of them. I like his ascension the last few weeks, and going into the year, he was part of the hot rookie class we have. I think a 6 catch, 80 yard and a TD game is not that far out of the realm of possibility for Evans, especially since the Bucs will look to salvage their season against the Vikings. LaFell could have similar numbers, or we could get a 3 catches for 50 yards. Fantasy flex can be such a crap shoot and I will always take floor over ceiling during the bye weeks.

Winner: Mike Evans

 

Doug Martin (73) vs. Denard Robinson (87)

Martin vs Robinson | FindTheBest

Over the previous three weeks before their Week 7 bye, the Bucs averaged 19.6 CPG as a team. That’s Carries Per Game as a team! When I said in the previous battle, that opportunity breeds success, I have to take the Bucs with a boulder-sized grain of salt. It’s easy to look at Martin and say he’s a number two, because he’s been relevant in the past but that was then, this is now….Emilio! *said ala Night at the Roxbury* Denard comes in as the newest flavor of the week, and if you missed on Tre Mason last week, because that is when he SHOULD of been added, then for sure get all up on Denard. I’ll be honest, this battle is more about going with the hot hand, and that reveals who will win this one, but let’s take a look at the breakdown anyway. Many were surprised, myself included, with how well Denard ran the ball last week. Even a quick glance at his stats impressed me that he only had a long run of 20 yards, yet was able to manage 127 yards on 22 carries for a 5.8 YPC average. The TD was a nice bonus too, and hopefully a sign of good things to come. Both backs face teams that give up an average of at least 100 yards a game, and that’s a plus with a 20 carry day from Denard, that should return more value than Martin. The Bucs can always change direction and start handing the ball off, but I wouldn’t go that far in my assumptions and look at Martin as a 15-carry ceiling this week. If the Bucs do jump out to a lead, then Bobby Rainey can take carries away from him and I don’t like that. I’m all in on Denard this week to continue holding down the job in Jacksonville and give you a better day than Martin.

Winner: Denard Robinson

  1. Peter says:
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    14 team league, with standard scoring.

    I have been offered D. Murray for J. Nelson. Do I take the trade? I am concerned about Murray’s health history, or am I over reacting?

    Thanks.

    Peter

    • Jason says:
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      @Peter: I just traded Murray and got Alshon. I too was concerned of his health and projected workload.

      • Ben says:
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    • J-FOH says:
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      @Peter: might be over reacting a little. Who else do you have at WR? and what is your RB situation like?

  2. David says:
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    Yo J-FOH!

    I would really appreciate any insight or advice on this. In a 10 team, standard league someone offered me j. graham and andre johnson for shane vereen and r. hilmann. While it looks like I’m getting more straight up value (because mostly of Graham) I feel like I’m giving away a lot of upside-potentially two top 20 RBs. Would you do the trade? also I need receivers and not running backs.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @David: I don’t like Johnson in standard. I wouldn’t do it. i would try to trade Vereen straight up for a receiver.

      • David says:
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        @J-FOH:

        Thanks man I agree too actually and great article as well

        • J-FOH says:
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          @David: thanks, i appreciate the read. Let me know what happens

  3. Jo says:
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    Hey man I just received a trade proposal seeing your thoughts on it

    I send ben Tate

    I receive golden Tate.

    My rb’s, Gio bernard, Tate of course, ahmad Bradshaw, Braden Oliver, denard robinson, tre Mason & jeremy hill

    My wrs; demaryius thomas , michael Crabtree, cordarrelle patterson, Kelvin benjamin, Andrew Hawkins & odell beckham jr.

    …….

    His RBs are
    :shady McCoy, jerick mckinon, Steven Jackson, bryce brown , Matt asiata , fred Jackson & just lost spiller. & Sankey

    His wrs are
    : aj green, jordy Nelson,,Tate , Kendal wright, larry Fitzgerald , & eddie royal.

    My only thing what will happen w/ Tate once johnson returns.

    I guess it comes down who you’d rather have on my roster based on my team ; ben or golden

    It’s 10 team & .20 ppr

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Jo: take Golden Tate

      • Jo says:
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        @J-FOH:

        Thanks man, even when megatron returns do you still like my wrs with golden Tate? I feel even w/ megatron returning at some point he’ll be better than Crabtree or cordarrelle patterson

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Jo: you’re welcome. I agree on tate.

  4. Peter says:
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    We play 4 WRs (or a RB/WR combo). I have Sanu, Cooks, Floyd (SD), Allen & Williams.

    My RB1 is Bell, & my RB2 is Pierce. I really need a RB2. This is the best offer I have got for a RB. However, I do not want to trade for soon to be damaged goods.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Peter: I think you need to hold on nelson and go after a real RB2 or B3 with upside and move Floyd or Sanu

    • timmyk93 says:
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      @Peter: What offer????

  5. Mike says:
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    I need some help in all areas…I’ve been struggling to find consistancy for my WR2 and I’ve just got some solid production in my RBs but Mckinnon and Trent have byes soon.. I’m in a short bench PPR leauge… Any suggestions? Here’s my team below

    QB: Peyton
    RB Jerrick Mckinnon
    RB Trent Richardson
    WR Antonio Brown
    WR Doug Baldwin
    TE VErnon Davis
    Flex Sankey/ Cadet
    Def Seahawks
    K Cody Parky

    Bench Bobby Rainey
    Bench Josh Gordon
    Bench Brian Quick
    Bench Wes Welker

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Mike: try to trade Welker

  6. Peter says:
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    Thank you

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Peter: no prob

  7. Tool says:
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    Who do you like in the Flex (PPR)?

    B. Oliver, Andre Johnson or Edelman?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Tool: Edelman

  8. Grizzly says:
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    Would you trade tree mason for Ryan Mathews non ppr league ?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Grizzly: nope, I’d want mason ROS

  9. Steve says:
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    Would you drop Montee for Bryce Brown? Montee’s no lock to get the starting gig back and hasn’t impressed at all this season.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Steve: worth a gamble if you’re in need. I was reading that even when he returns he may be a situational back

  10. Dom B says:
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    Flex Doug Martin, Roddy White, Percy Harvin or Malcolm Floyd

    Better start for TE Zack Ertz or Delaine Walker

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Dom B: White, Ertz

  11. Dom B says:
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    Would you do this trade I send Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, and Roddy White for AJ Green and Brandin Cooks

    Starters:
    QB – Aaron Rodgers – Packers
    RB – Eddie Lacy – Packers
    RB – Andre Ellington – Cardinals
    WR – Kelvin Benjamin – Panthers
    WR – T.Y. Hilton – Colts
    WR – Percy Harvin – Jets
    TE – Delanie Walker – Titans
    PK – Steven Hauschka – Seahawks
    DEF – Baltimore Ravens – Ravens

    Bench:
    QB – Russell Wilson – Seahawks
    RB – Fred Jackson – Bills
    RB – Doug Martin – Buccaneers
    WR – Michael Crabtree – 49ers
    WR – Malcom Floyd – Chargers
    WR – Roddy White – Falcons

    • Dom B says:
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      @Dom B: I could also get byrce brown instead of cooks

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Dom B: I like the deal with cooks. You need to upgrade at TE

  12. Zandy says:
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    hey j-foh
    who are some high upside WR3 or RB3 youd target via trade/pickup to help give some BOOM to a std league team?
    names like percy, keenan, baldwin, gore, mason, ingram are some examples but curious if you had any others
    Thanks man

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Zandy: Freeman and Hyde are nice stashes

      • Zandy says:
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        @J-FOH: would you send dixon & andre holmes for percy and hyde? std league

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Zandy: yes I would do that.

  13. Hans says:
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    Need some serious trade help…Which side?
    Brees, Lamar Miller, Oliver, Seahawks
    Or
    Rivers, Vereen, Hillman, Eagles?

    If it matters, I have Mathews as well?

    How close is it?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Hans: brees side. Not close

      • Hans says:
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        @J-FOH: Thanks. I had some guys in my league telling me it was a bad trade. That Rivers is better than Brees, Hillman won the job rest of season and will play at a high level and vereen is legit. I was starting to think I made a mistake and derailed my 5-2 team…

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Hans: Vereen is an injury risk with past fumbling issues and Brees still has a higher ceiling than Rivers. Hillman may have won the job, but will still have to share with Ball when he returns

  14. Stanman says:
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    Ok so I have 2 possible trades I am trying to make and I am not sure because I feel as if Alfred Morris has to get better but here goes:
    1. Alfred Morris + (either decker or Terrence Williams) for McKinnon
    2. Alfred Morris + Keenan Allen + Ryan Mathews for Lamar miller (I already have Bradshaw and Fred Jackson + hillman and d Robinson so I’m not super worried about giving away too much on rbs for miller)

    Is either one of those worth it? Am I giving too much?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Stanman: giving too much on both

  15. Zandy says:
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    sorry j-foh, on your point above re: hyde
    would you send dixon & andre holmes for percy and hyde? std league

    • Zandy says:
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      @Zandy: thanks! just saw u got me above. appreciate it

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Zandy: yup, I answered above

      • Zandy says:
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        @J-FOH: thanks. similarly, would you try to send mason and wright for oliver?

  16. Brian says:
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    What is up with Cooks e is killing my squad is the dude dropabe ?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Brian: nah, too much upside

  17. friar says:
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    I have Ryan as my QB, which means I’ll need to find a replacement next week when he’s on bye. Since he’s been terrible (especially on the road) and is playing the Lions in London on Sunday, I figure I basically can’t start him this week either, which leaves me looking for a two week fill-in.

    How would you rank these QB pickups for weeks 8 and 9?
    Alex Smith – vs StL, vs NYJ
    Carson Palmer – vs Phi, @Dal
    Teddy Bridgewater – @TB, vs Wsh

    • J-FOH says:
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      @friar: Palmer, he’s stable

  18. Nikko Respeto says:
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    Hello!

    Just got a trade offer. My Sankey and VJax for his Fitz and Ingram. My RBS are: Leveon, Lamar, Bishop, and Ronnie Hillman. My WRS are: Antonio, Emmanuel, VJax, Reggie Wayne, Mike Evans, and my boy Odel Beckham. I don’t necessarily think this is a good trade for me but I could definitely be wrong. thoughts?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Nikko Respeto: receivers are almost a wash and I like Ingram over Sankey, ROS. I’d do it

    • Razz Guru says:
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      @Nikko Respeto: I WOULDN’T do that trade Fitz is done go out there and grab Michael Floyd if you can. Also pickup Damien Williams to hancuff Lamar Miller because he is gonna spilt carries with Millar news out of Miami

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Razz Guru: I haven’t seen that news, where did you get that? I would love to see it.. Would greatly hurt Lamar.

    • Razz Guru says:
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      @Nikko Respeto: I wouldnt do it Fitz is nothing try to get Michael Floyd but handcuff Damien Williams because Lamar and him are spilting carries

  19. Dom B says:
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    Should i add Ben cuttingham and drop Fred Jackson or Zack Ertz and drop Fred Jax and start Ertz over d. walker

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Dom B: Ertz over Walker, hold Fred Jackson

  20. Zandy says:
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    following up on the above – is cooks’s upside enough that hes worth targeting as a buy low with say andre holmes and dixon?
    Also who do you like more ROS – oliver or alf? would you send mason and wright for either? in std

    thanks bro for all your help today

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Zandy: Id send those two for Cooks

      Oliver, I wouldn’t do that trade for oliver

  21. Dom B says:
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    Who do I drop for Ertz

    QB – Aaron Rodgers – Packers
    RB – Eddie Lacy – Packers
    RB – Andre Ellington – Cardinals
    WR – Kelvin Benjamin – Panthers
    WR – T.Y. Hilton – Colts
    WR – Percy Harvin – Jets
    TE – Delanie Walker – Titans
    PK – Steven Hauschka – Seahawks
    DEF – Baltimore Ravens – Ravens

    Bench:
    QB – Russell Wilson – Seahawks
    RB – Fred Jackson – Bills
    RB – Doug Martin – Buccaneers
    WR – Michael Crabtree – 49ers
    WR – Malcom Floyd – Chargers
    WR – Roddy White – Falcons

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Dom B: floyd

  22. Jake says:
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    Luck , Demarco and Cooks for Romo, lynch and Cobb would you do this ? Cobb would be an upgrade at wr I would take a slight downgrade at qb at rb though . Thanks

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Jake: thats a lot of moving parts, can you do it without changing QB’s. Murray and Cooks for Cobb and Lynch?

  23. Jake says:
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    I think I may sit tight it seems like from reading past comments that you have a lot of faith in cooks just looked at demarcos schedule it’s a lot better than lynch . Thanks

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Jake: in leagues I own Murray I’m riding this one til the end

  24. Wacha Wacha says:
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    Need to drop one bench RB in 14 team standard league… drop Chris Johnson, Bryce Brown, or Z Stacy?

  25. Niner says:
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    Trade Graham, white, Bryce brown for gates, calvin Johnson, Crowell? PPR. Thanks.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Niner: seems fair

  26. barker says:
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    10 team 1/2 ppr

    my garcon for his ben tate

    my wr calvin cobb gordon fitz terr williams garcon
    my rbs lacy murray mason ivory

    • J-FOH says:
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      @barker: I like your RB depth, i think Garcon is a better matchup option for you and when RG3 returns, we can see a bump in Garcon’s value. They have a great rapport with each other and he can easily be your number 3 guy some weeks where ben won’t touch your line up unless there is an injury.

      • barker says:
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        @J-FOH: i made the trade because i feel like i can maybe make a trade for a better WR with a package of williams or fitz + mason or ivory or even tate will be more palatable to other owners rather than garcon and mason or ivory and even if i dont i should be alright

        also i feel like i can cover for garcon week 9 was gonna be a tough week anyway and i play the last place team that week —- week 8 i was benching garcon anyway week 9 i can cover it week 10 his bye hits and i get calvin back week 11 ill have fitz or williams for wr3 cobb calvin as wr 1 +2 and week 12 gordon will be back
        so week 9 is really where id miss garcon and tate is a much better trade chip and i am not starting garcon over calvin gordon cobb and my team is 6-1 so not that i could afford a loss but it won’t hurt so much if i lose week 8 and/or 9 my week 10 opponent has basically half his team on bye

        and nice work here sir on the article and advice

        • barker says:
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          @barker: was thinking terrance williams and mason for hilton or sanders

          or go big with cobb and mason for dez

          • J-FOH says:
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            @barker: Hilton

  27. Tyler says:
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    Should I give up Demaryius & Vereen to get Calvin & Olsen? Need TE help and I also have Hillman, McKinnon, Mathews, & PT. May also be able to sub Demaryius w Julio. Half ppr, thanks.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Tyler: there are a lot of good TE’s out there, I don’t like it. Your RB depth is sketchy

  28. Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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    so which is it, a coin flip or a 70-30 situation (these simply aren’t the same thing). purely academic here, as i own neither of evans/lafell in any league.

  29. Baren says:
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    I’m in a 10 team ppr 2-man keeper. I was just offered Luck for Forte. My other RB’s are McCoy, Ellington, Jennings, and Hillman. Forte is a high price, but Luck could be my QB for the next decade. I’m currently rolling with Foles. Thoughts?

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Baren: I like it, RB’s shelf life is far less than a QB. Id Pull the trigger

      • Barenrewn says:
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        @J-FOH: Thanks! I made the deal. It was tough parting with Forte, but I greatly improved my QB play, and while my RB output will likely dip a bit, I think I can cover it with the rest of my roster. Appreciate the advice as always!

  30. Todd says:
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    Please pick 3 receiver s to start this week, standard scoring. I’m confused on this group…
    Aj green, Keenan Allen, Percy Harvin , Mike Williams, Malcolm Floyd , Andre Holmes, Doug Baldwin

    And is brown the back to start over Dixon in buffalo?

    Mahalo mahalo mahalo J

    Todd

    • Todd says:
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      @Todd: I guess your could add lafell, Evans or cooks to that receiver list, not sure it makes a difference. I’m leaning Allen, and Williams and green if h plays, if not maybe Baldwin. Just not sure if Floyd is the go to guy now in place of Allen. Thoughts?

      Also thoughts on Percy? What’s his value now that he’s on the jets…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Todd: Green, Baldwin, Evans. I would also check Jays ranks in the morning. He does a great job with his ranks

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Todd: I don’t want anything to do with either back in Buffalo. That being said I go Dixon if you are in a bind. It’s really hard to predict what will go on but regardless they are playing the Jets tough run D

  31. Birdmann says:
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    I have nothing but my gut backing me up on this but Adams (GB) has a big week!

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Birdmann: thats a sound process

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