With the NFL draft two months away, I’m shifting my focus to my annual mock drafts. I’ve ranked in the Top 12 for NFL draft accuracy on Fantasypros in three of the last four years so I hope these articles will help you get to know some of the big fantasy rookies you’ll be drafting this year. If you have any questions, comment below plus I answer all questions on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown and Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn.
- Cam Ward (QB) to Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ Will Levis experiment has unsurprisingly failed spectacularly. While Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are superior talents, I can’t imagine Tennessee giving up the opportunity for a franchise quarterback. The question is, who?
Shadeur Sanders isn’t universally loved, but he is accurate, smart and comes from a reliable NFL bloodline. Cam Ward has more upside though, as an athlete who struggles with his reads but is more likely to turn into an elite starter. The bookies have Ward at -130.
- Abdul Carter (EDGE) to Cleveland Browns
The Browns have used seven different quarterbacks in the last two years, and none have been effective. I think with Deshaun Watson out for 2025 at least, Cleveland must go with a quarterback here. There are two top QB prospects in this draft class so I’d be taking whichever is available at this pick. But there’s a lot of buzz about Deion Sanders blocking a move to Cleveland for his sun. While Shadeur isn’t exactly a clean prospect. For that reason, I expect they go against need and select a Myles Garrett replacement in elite edge rusher Abdul Carter.
- Shadeur Sanders (QB) to New York Giants
The Giants badly need a quarterback, and while I think the odds of Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward falling to them is low, there is a growing sentiment that Abdul Carter will go in the top two, probably to the Browns but maybe even to the Titans. That leaves the Giants with one of the star quarterbacks in this class. Ward is likely their preference, but Sanders is a viable alternative. A smart, confident and accurate passer, Sanders is a love/hate prospect who is complicated by his dad getting involved in his professional affairs.
- Travis Hunter (CB/WR) to New England Patriots
The Patriots have needs across the board and could go in a number of directions: Arguably their greatest need is the O-line which could lead them to select Will Campbell. But for me, this is too early for a player with his limitations. The Patriots love Abdul Carter but if seems highly unlikely he slides this far given the recent hype around him. Assuming two quarterbacks go in the first three picks, a fantastic consolation prize come to them in Travis Hunter. Hunter is an elite two-way player I expect will focus on CB with occasional WR snaps.
- Will Johnson (CB) to Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have a surprising range of needs along the O-line and on the defensive side of the ball. While safeties and interior linemen belong later in the draft, with this pick I expect the Jaguars to attack the premium positions. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are both viable options, but this is a very deep draft for defensive lineman and they can be confident a good option will fall to the second round. That leaves Will Johnson, who is far and above the best pure cornerback in this draft. The Michigan alum is long and fast, though he takes too many risks.
- Tetairoa McMillan (WR) to Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders would love to find their franchise quarterback, but some unnecessary late-season wins have taken them out of contention for the top two QBs. At this stage, I think quarterback is more likely a day two pick (or a trade back into the latter part of the second round). While the Raiders badly need cornerback help, Will Johnson was taken from under their noses. Tetairoa McMillan is a great consolation prize though, and finally gives the Raiders a big bodied receiver to act as the WR1 in conjunction with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers.
- Kenneth Grant (DT) to New York Jets
The Jets have an array of needs for their new head coach. Given his history as a DC, I anticipate building a strong defense will be the priority. While finding an elite defensive tackle to place beside Quinnen Williams should be a priority. Mason Graham is the bigger name but his Wolverines teammate is favored by scouts and team personnel. Kenneth Grant is more of a run defender and provides the perfect complement to Williams. If Grant is unavailable, there’s a good chance someone like Will Johnson is. Worst case scenario, they can trade down.
- Mykel Williams (EDGE) to Carolina Panthers
With Bryce Young finally starting to look like the franchise quarterback the Panthers drafted him to be, they can turn to rebuilding their defense. Fortunately for Carolina’s brass, edge, DT and CB are the three positions of strength at this point in the draft. While the two Michigan tackles would be good options to pair with Derrick Brown, the Panthers are badly lacking in edge pressure since the departure of Brian Burns. Abdul Carter would be the ideal pick, but Mykel Williams is a strong alternative. He’s a very safe pick and would make sense for the rebuild.
- Mason Graham (DT) to New Orleans Saints
While the Saints have many holes, I think defense is a logical place to start based on the positions of strength at the top-end of this draft. While they’d love a Will Johnson, Abdul Carter or Tetairoa McMillan to fall, I think it’s most likely they ultimately attack the defensive line. There’s a good chance at least one of Mason Graham, Mykel Williams and Kenneth Grant falls to this spot and they’ll likely be preferenced in that order. Graham is the riskier option given his poor body, but anybody else would either be a poor fit or a major reach.
- Will Campbell (OT) to Chicago Bears
The Bears attempted to ease Caleb Williams’ transition into the NFL by providing him an array of elite targets. Unfortunately, his O-line and play-calling consistently let him down. The play-calling aspect will undoubtedly improve under Ben Johnson, so they can fix the remaining hole in the draft. Will Campbell is the top O-lineman available this year, in what is a weak class for the position. His lack of length may see him shift inside, but that still fills a need for Chicago. Even if Campbell is gone, I imagine they’ll still select another OL like Kelvin Banks.
- Kelvin Banks (OL) to San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers get a rare chance to pick early in the draft and I expect they’ll target one of their lines. If Graham, Grant or Williams falls, I expect that will be the pick. Otherwise, it’s a toss-up between speed rushers like Jalon Walker or or offensive line talent like Will Campbell and Kelvin Banks. With the 49ers struggling to maintain an effective run game for the first time in years, it’s time to bring in some youth talent. Kelvin Banks is one of the two top O-linemen in this draft. He’s not an elite prospect like many early OL of late, but he’s the best bet here.
- Ashton Jeanty (RB) to Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have hit the accidental (or intentional?) tank button by hiring the awful Brian Schottenheimer. Their defense has a few minor holes but I think Dak Prescott will be heard here, with the offense surely getting a major upgrade on days 2 and 3. Luther Burden is a logical pick as the Cowboys have nothing outside CeeDee Lamb in the passing game, but I favor the talent of Ashton Jeanty. Rico Dowdle was OK but he’s a free agent and better suited to a backup role. Jeanty is an every down weapon and the first step in returning to the days of Zeke et al.
- Tyler Booker (OL) to Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins desperately need to protect Tua Tagovailoa better. As an added bonus, better run blocking would help kick-start their previously elite run game that struggled at times last year. So I’m backing them to take the best offensive lineman on the board. The latest reports suggest Will Campbell could fall to them here, but Kelvin Banks is also a solid option. If both are off the board, they could go away from need towards whatever value falls, but I think they could also trade down or take Tyler Booker. This is early for a guard but Booker is that good.
- Tyler Warren (TE) to Indianapolis Colts
The Colts secondary needs a significant upheaval, as it arguably cost them a playoff birth last season. The firing of Gus Bradley was the biggest and best step in the process, but they still need a lot more talent on the back end. This class has some elite safeties and I wouldn’t discount the possibility of them taking Nick Emmonwori or Malaki Starks. Cornerback also isn’t out of the question. But the Colts have struggled at tight end for years, and they can make an immediate change here with elite block and receiving weapon, Tyler Warren.
- James Pearce Jr (EDGE) to Atlanta Falcons
I’ve mocked Atlanta an edge rusher the last two years so I’d expect the Falcons are targeting an edge rusher either here or with a trade back. Though a defensive lineman also isn’t out of the question. This isn’t a surprise as by all reports, they would have taken Laiatu Latu last year if not for their Michael Penix adoration. Mykel Williams would be the ideal pick here but he’s a rising prospect while James Pearce is heading in the wrong direction due to character concerns. For that reason, we could even see Jalon Walker go here instead.
- Jalon Walker (EDGE) to Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals need help on both lines, though I expect them to lean D-line given the relative strength of the two positions. A trade down is also on the cards (no pun intended) as they will likely have a lot of defensive linemen available at this point. Heck, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Mason Graham to fall into the mid teens based on recent reports. But I’m leaning Jalon Walker here given he’s the best of the available option. He’s a viable scheme fit as an OLB-only edge rusher and the Cardinals badly need some more burst from the pass rush.
- Nick Emmanwori (S) to Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a lot of high-end talent but they’ve also had a heap of busts out of high draft picks. This has led to a roster with an alarming amount of holes while a lot of money is committed to stars like Joe Burrow. I assumed that would mean the Bengals would let go of Tee Higgins, and yet it seems that’s not the case. Unfortunately, there’s not an obvious value at guard or DL in this range. For that reason, I have Cincy taking the best player available. That’s Nick Emmanwori, an elite safety prospect. Safeties rarely go this early, but they rarely have his size/skill combination.
- Josh Simmons (OL) to Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks got badly let down by their O-line last season, so they badly need to improve the interior. Ideally Tyler Booker reaches them here, but in this mock, it’s Josh Simmons. His torn ACL hurts him, but given the Seahawks’ needs, they either need to reach at OL or trade down for value. It’s also possible though that Seattle beefs up its defense with an edge rusher or a linebacker like Jihaad Campbell. In a draft class so deep in defensive linemen though, I can imagine them targeting the edge on Day 2 if Booker or Kelvin Banks is available at 18.
- Jihaad Campbell (LB) to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Reportedly the Buccaneers love ‘Bama linebacker Jihaad Campbell. ILB is typically an undervalued position in the draft but Campbell is an exceptional talent highly likely to go in the first round. The Buccaneers need to replace Lavonte David who is aging out so this pick makes perfect sense. I could also see Tampa Bay grabbing an edge rusher after Joe Tryon-Shoyinka’s disappointing output since his 2021 1st round selection. Jalon Walker would be a good fit if he falls this far, which he may.
- Malaki Starks (S) to Denver Broncos
The Broncos are fortunate to have few high-value needs after finally finding the franchise quarterback in Bo Nix. I’m in the minority in thinking that Sean Payton is satisfied with Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Devaughn Vele as WR depth alongside Courtland Sutton. I also don’t think he needs a high-end tight end, though that would be tempting here. So I’m thinking he goes talent over positional value. With Jihaad Campbell off the board, I’m going with Malaki Starks. An elite player, he deserves to go in the 1st, even though safeties usually slip.
- Luther Burden (WR) to Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers once again made the playoffs with a mediocre roster, much to the chagrine of their fan base who would apparently prefer a rockier ride with less success. Their greatest hole is at quarterback but they’re never getting the top two guys and there isn’t another first round talent. Surely they won’t make the Kenny Pickett mistake again? Meanwhile owner Art Rooney II has suggested the team needs to add another wide receiver and I agree. Given they don’t do so in free agency, Luther Burden fits here as a complement to George Pickens.
- Azareye’h Thomas (CB) to Los Angeles Chargers
There is a natural temptation to mock the Chargers offensive help. They do indeed have a big hole at WR3, though I think that can be easily filled in free agency. Likewise, I think Will Dissly is sufficient at tight end and Jim Harbaugh has shown no intent to spend up at running back. Ashton Jeanty falling would likely change that though. This leaves us with the defense. I have no idea which defensive tackle they would target, but that wouldn’t surprise me. But I think Azareye’h Thomas is better value, as they can grab a DT on Day 2.
- Benjamin Morrison (CB) to Green Bay Packers
The Packers have holes along the defensive line, but I feel they can target them on Day 2. There’s a bit of secondary talent that will likely go in this region and I think it makes more sense for the Packers to get on board. Benjamin Morrison is a high upside pick that could elevate the Green Bay secondary. Though I must admit, I could also see them grabbing up Luther Burden or Emeka Egbuka if they’re here. Center also isn’t out of the question, though I struggle to see the pick that makes sense in this range.
- Jahdae Barron (CB) to Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ needs conveniently match what’s likely available late in the first round. It will ultimately depend what falls to them on the night. Tyler Booker, Alfred Collins, Tyleik Williams, Azareye’h Thomas and Ashton Jeanty would all be great options if they fall, but in this mock it’s Jahdae Barron who is the best value pick. Minnesota hasn’t been able to stop the pass for years and need a total rebuild. Barron isn’t a perfect fit as he’s shorter and better suited to the slot, but I’m not sold on Josh Metellus as a long-term option there anyway.
- Emeka Egbuka (WR) to Houston Texans
The Texans have few glaring needs making them easy to project. Defensive tackle would be an easy pick but it would arguably be easier for them to address this in the second round. O-line also isn’t the greatest value at this point, but if the right guy falls, I could imagine them going in that direction too. But their biggest issue is that Stefon Diggs is a UFA and Tank Dell is likely missing 2025. Emeka Egbuka would be a nice, safe pick here and the perfect complement to talented WR1 Nico Collins. CJ Stroud struggled in his second year so some help would be ideal.
- Colston Loveland (TE) to Los Angeles Rams
The Rams don’t lack needs, but it’s hard to see them fulfilling them if the draft falls this way. A left tackle would be fantastic but this is a very weak class for that need. They could go defensive and grab a cornerback or, if he falls, Jihaad Campbell. But they’ve traditionally had success finding Day 2/3 value at these positions. For that reason, I expect them to replace either the ailing Tyler Higbee or the aging Cooper Kupp. In this case, it’s Colston Loveland. Tyler Warren is the stud TE in this class, but Loveland is also a strong three-down tight end worthy of this pick.
- Shavon Ravel Jr (CB) to Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are incredibly adept at finding value in the draft, regularly picking whichever player falls. That makes them very hard to predict, though they haven’t been quite as successful in recent years. At this spot, there’s not viable offensive lineman option, no great slot receiver and no obvious edge rusher. I have them therefore reinforcing their weak secondary and taking Shavon Ravel Jr. Ravel is tall, speedy and athletic, but he tore his ACL in October which tanked his draft value. I expect the Ravens are the kind of team to look past that and see his value.
- Shemar Stewart (DL) to Detroit Lions
The Lions draft on personality and many of the best edge rushers aren’t a fit for their culture. Meanwhile I don’t love the value of an interior offensive lineman here and I think the Lions are smarter than that. But they took cornerbacks last year, so it’s unlikely they go that way again unless there’s a screaming value. For that reason, I’ve mocked them an athletic freak with plenty of upside who needs a lot of development. That’s not a classic Lions fit, but he’s also not a huge character question mark like Mike Green.
- Isaiah Bond (WR) to Washington Commanders
The Commanders’ greatest need remains their edge rush. For years their interior has sandpapered over this weakness but this season they surely must improve. There’s a heap of defensive linemen available in this draft and I’m unsure if they really love any enough to use this pick, when they could grab a solid talent in the second round. The Commanders badly need a wide receiver though, and I think supporting Jayden Daniels needs to be a priority. Isaiah Bond is a small but bring huge upside with his elite speed. He’d be a great WR2 to Scary Terry.
- Alfred Collins (DT) to Buffalo Bills
The Bills have few desperate needs and will likely take best player available among their weaknesses. While they struggled with their wide receivers last season, I feel their intentional rotation was more game plan than talent related and I doubt they go to that well again. They really need to get better against the run though. So I’m mocking them a big, bad run stuffer in Alfred Collins. Along with a heap of 1st/2nd round bubble players, Collins could easily go in this range or fall due to excessive supply. Also don’t discount the possibility of some secondary help.
- Walter Nolen (DT) to Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs always seem to have needs in the draft, then they just keep making the Super Bowl. This year, they once again need help on both lines while a wide receiver would be helpful with all but Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice free agents. KC have been struggling to effectively protect Patrick Mahomes for some time now and it’s time they tried harder. But there’s just no good value in offensive linemen here. Meanwhile Walter Nolen is a true love/hate prospect. He improved after his move to Ole Miss, but he still has a lot of bad play on tape, that’s scary.
- Nic Scourton (EDGE) to Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl winners rarely have major holes to fill and that’s certainly true of the Eagles. Their last four picks have been on the defense and I expect, given their offensive success of late, they’ll continue trying to strengthen what was previously a weakness. This is ultimately a best-player-available pick and I’m far from confident as to which of the many 1st/2nd round bubble players Philly will go with. Nic Scourton is big and fast but comes with plenty of risk. Experts are mocking him everywhere from the top ten to late in the second round.
You can find the full mock draft at ffdfantasyfootball.com and my full rundown of the whole first round on my Youtube channel.
