Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 15:
Can’t see the spreadsheet? Click here.
Josh Carey’s Picks:
Bankroll: $1,237 (Last week: +$49)
Record 42-36-2 (Last week: 3-1-0)
Locks: 6-5-1 (Last week: 1-0-0)
$40 New England +2.5 at Baltimore (Lock of the week): This is the only play my system really has any confidence in this week, so I guess that makes it “lock” material. It’s the classic “go against the grain” pick. New England comes off a surprising loss, Baltimore comes off a (potentially undeserved) win. It makes for a spread that is smaller than it should be. I would love this game more with a field goal, but we don’t live in a perfect world… yet.
Now, for the slate of games I probably wouldn’t be picking at all if I didn’t have column space to fill:
$10 New York Jets -2.5 vs. Cleveland: Give me whoever the home team is in this one.
$10 Miami -2.5 vs. Buffalo: E.J. Manuel is sitting this one out. Even for Miami in Western New York in December, this should be a game they can cover.
$10 Jacksonville +5.5 vs. Tennessee: The Jaguars are like the little engine that could. How could you not root for them?
Total wagered: $80
Bankroll: $110 (last week -$24)
Record: 24-39-4 (last week 2-2-1)
Locks: 3-9 (last week 0-0)
Don’t you love it when you have a game clearly won so you treat yourself to a few extra rounds at the bar or buy something special for yourself in celebration? Or both as I did on Sunday, shopping on my phone, counting my Arizona money, and cleaning out the bar’s best seven year aged scotch. Arizona, I’m sending you my bill from Sunday because YOU OWE ME! The trials and tribulations of a trivial gambler. Anyway, it’s week 16 and my disastrous unfavourable gambling year is almost over. I am going to run a big slate to try and chase the dream of hitting it big. Just for the record, I never mentioned the word parlay. Damn it, I just did.
$10 Buffalo +2.5 vs. Miami: Snowbirds who leave the North East and travel down to Florida for yearly fun in the sun know how unfunny the cold and snow can be. The longer you stay away from the winter season the more you feel the cold right to the bone. Miami playing up in the cold is not what nature intended. This is the only true home game in the last six weeks for Buffalo and the last of the year in Orchard Park. The fans will be ready and will welcome the sight of snow and subzero temperatures. Bills 21 Dolphins 20.
$10 Cleveland +2.5 at New York Jets: I picked up the Cleveland defense for a potential week 16 fantasy matchup and they have me concerned after the last few weeks of points against. Then I remembered they are playing against Geno Smith. Bring home the Reign Maker$ Cleveland defense! Browns 17 Jets 0.
$20 Dallas -2.5 at Washington: Now we come to a stretch of games where one team is in a must win spot. I can’t believe how many teams dropped the ball last week in critical games. This week some of those teams face opposition at their lowest level and surely can’t waste another game away? Unless you are playing a division rival without their first round pick to tank for. I predict a Tony Romo Christmas miracle on 1600 Fedex Way. Cowboys 31 Redskins 27.
$20 Kansas City -7 vs. Indianapolis: These two teams are on a collision course come January. No question that the Colts will hide their playbook for the more important game; oh, everyone already knows the Chiefs playbook – dump it off to Jamaal Charles. Kansas City has a little more to play for as they have a marginal chance at winning the division. They should save their arrowheads for January. Chiefs 31 Colts 10.
$20 Denver -10.5 at Houston: Now come bets on the two most pathetic teams. Houston will lose out to clinch the number one pick in the 2014 NFL draft. Peyton Manning will break the TD record in this game leaving the ability to rest in week 17 if the chance presents it. Broncos 41 Texans 10.
$20 Detroit -8.5 vs. New York Giants: Eli Manning is having some kind of year. Does he really have two Super Bowl rings? Yup. I think his some kind of year continues Sunday and Detroit can fight back for the division title. Lions 31 Giants 10.
Total Wagered: $110