Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game (Yahoo Sports’ Odds page is a good place to pick your lines)
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $1,509 (Last week: +$33)
Record: 41-29-1 (Last week: 2-1)
Locks: 10-4-1 (Last week: 1-0)
$40 Oakland +9.5 at Carolina (LOCK OF THE WEEK): Carolina’s recent victories over Atlanta and San Diego have created the impression of a team that’s much better than it actually is. For the first three months of the season, the Panthers beat absolutely no one by more than nine points, which they’d have to do to cover. I get that it was the Chiefs, but the Raiders did just shut somebody out last week. They’re not two possessions worse than the Raiders. This number just seems way too high not to be enamored with it.
$40 Seattle +1 vs. San Francisco: The 49ers have scored just six more points than the Seahawks this season and are undefeated at home. They might be down a cornerback, but the 49ers aren’t exactly known for their depth of wide receivers.
$30 Baltimore +2.5 vs. New York Giants: Two teams that people are down on play a football game. Who do you take? The home team people are more concerned about getting the points, of course. This is a perfect example of jumping against the trends to grab a favorable betting line.
$30 St. Louis at Tampa Bay OVER 44: I don’t expect the Bucs to put up a goose egg against the Rams, and I do expect St. Louis to pretend they’re in Willie Wonka’s Chocolate Factory and lay a golden egg against Tampa’s weak defense. Sounds like a recipe for an Ever-lasting Gobbstopper of a game if there ever was one.
$30 Philadelphia +6 vs. Washington: There’s some equity in here than Robert Griffin III doesn’t play, making this an even better bet (and expect the line to move about three points if that does happen). But more importantly, I don’t see Nick Foles being as bad as advertised, LeSean McCoy could be making his return, and you know how I feel about home underdogs anyways.
$30 Minnesota at Houston OVER 45: I’m going to go with five rushing touchdowns, one passing, and two field goals for the win.
Total wagered: $200
Bankroll: $1041 (last week -$138)
Record: 38-31 (last week 3-4)
Locks: 8-6 (last week 0-1)
My locks and big bets on the year have been the thorn in my side for most of this season. However, I am still swimming above water by being above the $1000 starting point and winning at a 55% clip. I’m not going to stop my charge now as this may be the last week for a chance to catch Josh at the top of the page. As the Mayan’s say, “Yesterday is history, tomorrow a mystery.” No, wait, I think they had it the other way around. Perfect, time is still on my side.
$200 Chicago -5.5 at Arizona: The next three bets, albeit on road teams, are squads who are in must win situations versus teams with nothing important to play for. Also, no locks to give out this week, as they are bad omens to the money lining my pockets. Don’t ask me how Arizona won last week with a total of 196 offensive yards but they won’t do it twice. The Cardinals winning and the Bears losing last week have kept this line under the seven points. Chicago in a romp. Bears 34 Cardinals 10.
$150 New York Giants -2.5 at Baltimore: Baltimore has clinched a playoff spot despite the fact they have lost three straight games. The defense has too many injuries to keep it competitive and the offense is too erratic to, well, also to stay competitive in games. Two negatives equal a nice matchup for the Giants to bounce back from last week’s embarrassing loss. New York is in a must win game and will get a few healthy bodies back this week, so they earn my bet once again. Giants 31 Ravens 20.
$100 Washington -6 at Philadelphia: RG3 should be back for this very important tilt, as Washington needs to keep winning and maintain their top standing in the NFC East. Washington is on a five game winning streak and Philadelphia has lost nine of their last 10. Redskins 31 Eagles 17.
$50 New Orleans at Dallas Over 51.5: The Saints score 41 points last week and the game doesn’t even come close to going over. Tampa Bay should be ashamed at themselves for putting up a goose egg to a defense that allows 27 points per game. If I ever needed them, now is the week. They are 8-6 on the over this season after starting the year 5-1. I’m the captain of this over ship and I’m still on board. #iwillalwaysbeteverysaintsgameover. Cowboys 34 Saints 27.
Total Wagered: $500