Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game (Yahoo Sports’ Odds page is a good place to pick your lines)
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $1,127 (last week: -$60)
Record: 14-9-1 (last week: 0-3)
Locks: 3-2-1 (last week: 0-0)
Well that sucked. Last week saw me get screwed by a late touchdown allowed from the Ravens defense and the Chargers deciding to play only one half of Monday Night Football. Still, the losses were pretty minor and my bankroll is still higher than Zorboss, which is why you see my picks first once again. This week, though, this is my week. Unlike Han Solo, I’ve got a good feeling about this.
$50 Houston -6.5 vs. Baltimore: Yes, the Ravens are 4-0 in their last four contests, but only one of those victories was by more than three points (a seven point win over Cleveland). The Texans, on the other hand, have yet to win a game by fewer than six points. Plus, they last got embarrassed by the Packers on national television, driving down the perception of the team and creating a more favorable line. The real key here, however, is the Ravens defense that got thrashed last week by, well, every single Cowboys running back. The Texans have a guy you might have heard of by the name of Arian Foster who might just be able to exploit a poor, injury-riddled defense. If the Baltimore offense can’t keep up, this could be a blowout.
$40 New England -10.5 vs. New York Jets: Speaking of blowouts, there’s no better way to piss off Bill Belichick than to beat his football team. And what happens then? He comes back, all crazy and pissed off (and why yes, that was a Wonderfalls reference. The pilot episode, “Wax Lion,” is on YouTube if you’re interested in good dramadies cancelled before their time). This will be just the third home game for the Patriots, and the third road game for the Jets. Which suggests to me those point differentials (New England +51, Jets -8) are even more lopsided than they would appear on the surface. This is another line skewed by the Jets winning last week and the Patriots losing. All of which makes a pretty compelling case, I think, for New England to just run away with this one.
$20 St. Louis +5 vs. Green Bay: I love home underdogs like I love my taffy. And I am a man who sure loves his taffy. Have you noticed a trend with me trying to go against the grain of recent results? This might surprise you, but St. Louis is actually unbeaten at home this year. Now, I’m not crazy enough to sit here and say “The Rams are going to win outright so take the moneyline,” but is something like a 24-20 loss incredibly possible? I think so, considering Green Bay’s inconsistencies this season (they’ve followed up every win with a loss so far this year). The Rams have earned their .500 record under Jeff Fisher, don’t automatically dismiss them as no good.
$40 Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans OVER 49.5: Betting Saints overs is Zorboss’ baby, so I’ll let him explain below. He pulls out the Shakespeare card, too. It’s pretty impressive.
$50 Tennessee at Buffalo OVER 46.5: So as I was writing my FanDuel preview post, I realized something: Both Buffalo and Tennessee’s defenses are really, really bad. Like eighth season of The Office bad. And both offenses are capable of putting up a bunch of points against bad defenses. But because the starting QB names are “Hasselbeck” and “Fitzpatrick,” the Over/Under is like a man suffering a midlife crisis and still stuck in the mid-40s. Screw it, I just talked myself into making this my lock of the week.
Total wagered: $200
Bankroll: $1090 (last week – $ 64)
Record: 13-8 (last week 2-2)
Locks: 4-2 (last week 0-1)
$30 New Orleans at Tampa Bay OVER 49.5: O, New Orleans, New Orleans, wherefore art thou New Orleans? Deny thy number, and refuse thy under; or if thou will not, be but sworn my over, and I’ll no longer be a gambler. Didn’t know betting could be so poetic, did you? The Saints are back and I couldn’t be any happier. Well, I could be happier once this game goes over and they line my bank account with some extra numbers; nobody gambles with the mafia cash anymore do they? The Saints are 4-1 on the over this season; not even a rested defense and some offensive injuries will change my vote or love for a high number of points scored in their games. #iwillalwaysbeteverysaintsgameover. Saints 34 Bucs 27.
$60 Green Bay -5 (Lock) at St Louis: Green Bay will be playing their third road game in a row inside the confines of a dome. I don’t think that has ever happened in the history of Packer football. They probably have never even practiced indoor football three times in a row. They should put a tent over Lambeau Field and change the nickname from ‘Frozen Tundra’ to ‘A Well Groomed Bluegrass Served At Room Temperature.’ With all due respect to a respectable and homey team like the Rams, they are not on the same level as this Packers squad. After watching Green Bay dismantle a powerful Houston team, they are on a mission to not just win games, but grade their opponents into a fine shaving of cheese. Give me Rodgers over Bradford in any timeline or court case. Packers 34 Rams 17.
$30 Minnesota -6.5 vs. Arizona: William Powell at running back and John Skelton at quarterback… that’s all you need to know about this game. I don’t see the Cardinals scoring too many points in this affair. The only affair going on in this game will be between the bench of the Cardinals and the heckling from Viking fans. The only fans left in their seats in the fourth quarter will be wearing purple and gold. Is there still gold in Fort Knox? Vikings 24 Cardinals 13.
$10 New York Jets +10.5 at New England: Tebow at running back? Yeah, give me 10 bucks, at plus 10.5 points, with over 10 Tebow plays, resulting in some divine ‘not a gambling’ intervention. Patriots 30 Jets 20.
Total Wagered: $130
So what are your picks heading into week seven of the National Football League?