And here we go like the Wright Brothers – flying into week two of Bet the Farm, our little game where we prove you should never, ever gamble on NFL games. Or, at least that’s what we learned from my Wheedon-esque performance last week. Before we get into that, let’s go over the rules again:
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat me over the entire season and win my admiration.
So, things went very badly for me in Week One. Maybe as bad as Battlefield Earth. But like I said, I like to be cautious early on, so the losses were pretty modest. And we’re bringing in an additional author this week you can just ignore me if you like. Let’s recap:
Bankroll: $941 (Change: -$59)
Record: 1-3 (Last week: 1-3)
“Lock of the Week”: 0-1 (Last week: 0-1)
So, let’s try to do better with this week’s pics:
$50 Seattle +3 vs. Dallas (LOCK OF THE WEEK): Qwest field is one of the toughest places to play and Dallas is flying high after their opening-night win over the defending Super Bowl champions. I love home underdogs like a pyromaniac loves fire and Week One is hardly enough proof to say that Dallas and Seattle are vastly different teams (read: relatively equal) than we thought two weeks ago. Take the points and run in this one.
$30 Baltimore +2 at Philadelphia: This line has been moving towards the Ravens all week, so I’m splitting the difference with multiple lines I’m seeing and going with the +2. This is one line I understand less than Twilight (is he a vampire? Then why does he sparkle?) and love pouncing on. Joe Flacco looked, well, elite, last week, while Michael Vick looked like a dog scared of being put in a fight to the death. I like the Ravens chances to win outright, or at least keep it very close.
$10 UNDER 44.5 Vikings at Colts: Suddenly everyone thinks Christian Ponder and the Vikings offense is like the first three seasons of Family Guy – good, watchable, and something you want to pay to see – forgetting how last year he was nothing but Family Guy’s eighth and ninth seasons – unbearable and mind-numbing. The other quarterback is a rookie, so even if you have little faith in the defenses on the field, it seems like they should be able to stop the J-V offenses across from them.
$10 OVER 41.5 Jets at Steelers: Both the New York and Pittsburgh defense could be without several key players this weekend, with Darrelle Revis’ injury forcing Kyle Wilson into duty as an actual cornerback. That should allow Ben Roethlisberger to slice open the defense like the victims in slasher films. Since we can’t rule out Mark Sanchez doing the same thing, apparently, the over seems like a solid bet.
Total wagered: $100.
And now I’ll pass the torch over to my newest competitor, Zorboss!
$20 Buffalo -3 vs. Kansas City: It’s only fair that I start the NFL gambling season with a bet on the Buffalo Bills as well. Living in close proximity to Bills nation I know first-hand how this herd migrates. Just when you think they are going to zig they zag, and just when you think they can’t drink anymore they drink some more. I’m convinced they get paid every time somebody jumps on and off their wagon. They are the most unpredictable team in the NFL; that’s why their fans bring flasks into the stadium and go shirtless in the winter. After a week 1 debacle vs. the Jets, injury to Fred Jackson, and a poor defensive showing, everyone is expecting another disappointing Bills season. Expect the unexpected when it comes to Buffalo…except the weather. I can’t wait to listen to Buffalo Bills radio after this win when the fans call in to reminisce about the comeback game of 1993. Bills 24 Chiefs 17.
$20 Baltimore +2 at Philadelphia (LOCK): The Ravens plus money?! You can sign me up every time this occurs. I think the Ravens are one of the top five teams in the NFL. Their offense I believe will take a big step forward this year and match up nicely with the older but solid defense. What have the Eagles shown us the last 17 games? Not much besides a few good steak sandwiches. Good on paper but underachieved in 2011. Started the 2012 season off with a last minute win versus a poor Cleveland Browns team with a 28 year old rookie quarterback. I’d rather trust a stranger than Michael Vick. One bet you can guarantee is that Vick will not last to the end of this season. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson are already taking practice time off due to soreness. They won’t be playing too much of the Eagles flying fight song come Sunday. Ravens 24 Eagles 13.
$20 Atlanta -3 vs. Denver: Going into this year I was concerned that the hype and pressure surrounding Atlanta would ultimately burst and bring down the Falcons in 2012. After watching their week 1 game, I have done a full 180 and I think the sky is the limit for this team. They should change Matt Ryan’s nickname from Matty Ice to Matty on Fire. I know, I’m not good at creating nicknames. Atlanta has only lost 5 home games in the last 3 years at the Georgia Dome. I guess they like their home cooked meals. This is a bet on Hotlanta rather than a bet against Denver. Falcons 31 Broncos 17.
Total Wagered: $80