Hey there Razzballers,

Reid here kicking off my season-long series for those of you who love to live life on the edge.

I guess a little background on the name of this post should be included since 100% of you are sitting there thinking “Who the hell is ‘Bojo’ and why should I take anything this guy says seriously?”

Great questions. Let me explain. Bojo is the nickname for an Old Niagara Falls man who has a reputation for being quite savvy with line movements and getting to the heart of the games. So I’m sitting down with him to get some of his best bets each week (2 best bets and 1 upset). I will be adding a DFS player to target for each of the games brought up as well. So let’s get to the games and see where Bojo wants to look at this week:

Baltimore (-7) vs. Buffalo. 

Bills have 3 new starters on the offensive line. No deep threat at all means Baltimore is going to play press all game and sit on every route.” “Peterman doesn’t have an arm. Flacco is in a contract year. Baltimore is going to dominate the Bills offensive line.”

The game before the preseason was Baltimore (-3.5) but then broke open to -7 once Peterman was announced the starter. I’m not sure AJ McCarron is worth 3.5 points for the Bills, but I will say that I agree with the overall sentiment here. The game is in Baltimore and I’m just not sure how the Bills are going to generate any points. I also LOVE Joe Flacco in DFS this week (DraftKings price of $4900) as a really cheap option with high upside.

New England (-6.5) vs. Houston.

“Pats only laying 6.5 at home in an opener is a joke. Healthy Gronk. 7-11 [Chris Hogan] is going to catch everything.” “Don’t trust the Houston OL just yet. Not sure how Deshaun Watson is going to look in first game back since injury; No way he does what he did last year.” “Still don’t trust the defense.”

So last year the game was somewhat of a launching pad for the Texans offense and Watson in particular. That being said, I’m not entirely sure how the Pats are only laying 6.5 at home in this one. You all know my feelings on Watson this year, and compound that with the sophomore slump I expect to happen early in the season. As for DFS, I think Chris Hogan is almost too obvious of a play here, but he should be a target monster this week.

Upset Special

*Disclaimer* – Jalen Ramsey is not going to like what Bojo has to say about the Jags this year.

Jacksonville @ NY Giants (+3)

“Jacksonville is so overrated. How in the hell is a Blake Bortles-led team laying 3 points on the road? Giants are healthy and have a real coach who knows what an offense is. Odell Beckham Jr is back too. Bortles sucks. Did I say that already?”

Sheesh. I actually tend to agree on the Jacksonville being overrated point. I also have confidence in Pat Shurmur to call plays that are becoming of an NFL offense in 2018. Bojo also had some choice words regarding Doug Marrone, but there are probably children who are reading this and that type of language is not appropriate. For DFS purposes, keep an eye on Sterling Shepard in this game. His price is way lower than OBJ’s and he won’t have to go up against Ramsey.

Thanks for reading everyone. I’ll be back on Tuesday with my Hot Takes from Week 1 with an eye on Week 2.

  1. Allan says:
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    Reid I’ve got a little bit of a dilemma. I’m the commissioner of our 12 team ppr dynasty league. There’s a trade on the table between 2 teams. It’s Alshon Jeffrey, Golden Tate, Jordan Howard, and Bilal Powell for Leveon Bell, Stefon Diggs, and Jerrick McKinnon. My first instinct is to veto it. Thoughts?

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Allan: I’m not sure I would veto that. One person is clearly playing for just this year, while the other is willing to take on dead weight this year in order to come back next year loaded.

  2. Better Call Limehouse says:
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    we should do a weekly bet column (not counting ATL @ PHI this week). we’ve tried this in past years, but the last time it was even attempted IN TIME was back when tehol was here (at least 2/3 of the time back then, now 3 times a season in baseball, probably twice in football per year).

    i’ll start it (we have to obviously use the same lines):

    BAL -7 vs BUF
    PIT -4 @ CLE (PIT went down 2.5 missing bell)
    IND -2.5 vs CIN (IND went up 1.5)
    NYG +3 vs JAX
    NO -10 vs TB (huge lines i don’t like, but if anything qualifies… NO up from 7)
    NE -6.5 vs HOU
    TEN -1 @ MIA
    LAC -3.5 vs KC (LAC went up with KC’s DB injuries)
    CAR -3 vs DAL
    ARI -1.5 vs WAS
    GB -7 vs CHI (this line went down 1.5 from mack, risky either way maybe though)
    SEA +3 @ DEN (for some reason DEN went up 1.5, e.thomas maybe)
    MIN -6.5 vs SF (i’m not comfortable here, would’ve been back when it was only 4.5)
    LAR -4 @ OAK
    NYJ +6.5 @ DET (i don’t like DET’s D, it wasn’t good last year)

    obviously i got your answers for the BAL, NE and NYG games, 12 others left. anybody else can compete in this as well.
    i’m seeing why i mostly quit sports betting, any pro knows you almost never bet favorites (at least those who’ve won for years), and i’m betting mostly favorites.

    • Better Call Limehouse says:
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      @Better Call Limehouse: now 4-9, and the only things that won were favorites over 2.5 (4 for 4 in those). good thing i stopped mostly betting these things in real life. and it could be argued that i only went BAL and NE due to above (it’s not true, but it could be argued)

      • Better Call Limehouse says:
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        @Better Call Limehouse: no wait SEA tied, so that’s 4-8-1 thusly.

  3. Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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    14 team dynasty super flex AND rushing/receiving yards further weakened by only being worth 1 pt per 15, rather than 10, so half demotion to RB/WR/TE vs QB’s. standard as well, so QB’s are king. in past years i had a variety of backups that may have played that aren’t now (foles till he went to KC and never played a main one), guys that retired (palmer) and i nabbed goff a few years ago. this year i made sure to get as many QB’s as possible (it turned out to ONLY be the BUF guys though, even with a 1st round pick for allen). a lot of my WR lost value over the offseason too (dez, cooks, parker)
    QB goff
    RB (2) gurley, hyde
    WR (2) cooks, green
    TE (1) walker
    regular flex: coleman
    super flex: peterman (or breida or m.will LAC)
    BN guys:
    QB: allen
    RB: breida, j.kelly
    WR: m.williams, parker, dez, j.washington
    TE: OJ
    IR guice (was able to obtain the 2nd best RB in this year’s draft due to injury he was cheap (2nd round)

    1. hard to trust super flex rankings as i can’t input my exact settings, peterman or breida or m.will this week?
    2. hold j.washington or drop for one of these: richardson, kirk, ginn, allison, a.wilson, grant, b.marshall at WR or one of these RB’s: samuels, t.austin, hines, j.allen, hill, dixon? if/when parker and/or dez is healthy i’d probably rather have 6 RB than 6 WR in this league due to standardness.

  4. Draft says:
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    Where’s Bojo’s week two plays?

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