One of the greatest cinematic moments of my life occurred in a virtually empty movie theater on a Saturday morning, September 23, 2000. We all have these moments in our lives where we sort of wish we could look back and maybe watch ourselves for just a moment. I would give a nice sum of money to be able to go back and watch The Joey Wright see Almost Famous for the first time. Almost twenty-one years later to the date it, unapologetically, remains my favorite film. The one thing standing out upon my first viewing was our introduction to one Miss Penny Lane. A young magazine reporter is standing at the artist entrance to an arena, hoping to land an interview with Black Sabbath. He gets into a conversation with a rather fun-looking young lady when he starts to insinuate, she may just be a groupie and then it happens. Floating onto the screen almost like a ghost, we first lay our eyes upon Penny Lane, portrayed by Kate Hudson. Her blue-tinted glasses, tight curled blonde hair, and mohair jacket are woven into the fabric of my movie-going life. As is the remainder of her performance from first concert she attends with the reporter William, to the “Tiny Dancer” bus scene, and of course, the heart-breaking scene when she discovers the man she loves sold her band-aide services for $50 and a case of beer to Humble Pie. Her reply to this startling revelation, with tears beginning to roll down her face, she smiles and says, “What kind of beer.” The breakout performance from Hudson launched her into consciousness of the movie-going world and straight into the heart of one geeky seventeen-year-old boy who saw the film six more times during its theatrical run.
So, breakout performances in films are one thing, but we are here to talk about fantasy football. A breakout for a player can elevate not only their profile, but a team’s overall season standing. I consider breakout players to be like sleepers since they may be going later in drafts than where they should be. However, breakouts can often be ranked for their expected performance, so ADP isn’t as much a factor as it is with sleepers. Mainly, they transcend the sleepers in their fantasy manager now has a star or player they can feel confident in starting week in and week out with little worry about matchups. Here are my 2021 Breakout players.
Tua Tagovailoa
ADP: 156.1 | Position ADP: 20th
The trade rumors flying around Miami might make you think there is no reason to believe in Tua Tagovailoa, but I do. There is no quarterback outside my top 15 I could see moving inside of the top 10 as easily as Tagovailoa. He finished as the QB30 last year in his rookie season, but only started nine games as he was sharing time with the now-departed Ryan Fitzpatrick. Of those nine starts, he only finished six of the games. Now the pressure from a talented veteran is gone, he has a full offseason and training camp under his belt to really familiarize himself with the system, and a receiving group of first-round wide receivers that would have even famed Stillwater guitarist Russell Hammond screaming “I’m a golden God’ from the rooftops. The Dolphins quarterbacks last year threw for just shy of 4000 yards, 24 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and added an additional 260 yards and five touchdowns running the ball. The combined effort was enough to finish as the QB11. I don’t see a reason Tagovailoa can’t surpass those numbers, especially with his better care of the football in terms of interceptions and fumbles. I have him projected for 4576 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and an added 263 yards on the ground with 6 touchdowns.
Austin Ekeler
ADP: 9.8 | Position ADP: 7th
You might already think Austin Ekeler has broken out especially since he finished as the RB7 in 2019. However, 2019 was just the beginning of his ascent to the top of the proverbial Billboard Hot 100 Running Back Charts. Ekeler is coming off a season where he only played ten games and finished as the RB30. He did average 16.5 points per game in PPR leagues which was the twelfth highest mark on the season. So, what changes for 2021 have been made to give Ekeler the push to where I have him ranked on FantasyPros as the RB5 in PPR? He is fully healthy coming into the season and was essentially given the preseason off to assure he is ready to go to start the Chargers’ 2021 season. They also have the best offensive line the Chargers have had since Ekeler joined the team in 2017. The biggest factor may be the arrival of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi from the New Orleans Saints. Since 2016, Lombardi has been a key factor in the usage of Alvin Kamara and his four straight seasons as a top ten PPR running back, including finishing as the RB1 in 2020. Kamara’s worst season was a RB9 finish where he missed two games. Ekeler has always had talent and efficiency. Now it appears he will get the opportunity to produce even greater numbers on the field as well.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
ADP: 21.9 | Position ADP: 14th
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was considered a bust in 2020 because of his 65th overall and 22nd running back positional finish. Fantasy managers last season were using a top 15 pick to secure the services of what was thought to be the Chiefs primary running back and new NFL star. A combination of acclimation to the NFL style, no training camp, Andy Reid’s history of not giving too much to rookie running backs, and a midseason arrival from Le’Veon Bell were the chief culprits for such a lackluster start. In 2021, Bell is gone and Edwards-Helaire looks to have another shot at leading the Kansas City backfield. The only addition made was journeyman Jerick McKinnon who has not started more than four games since 2016. Even though a 22nd positional finish isn’t what fantasy owners desired, he still had 1100 yards from scrimmage and no fumbles. The down part of his game really seemed to be finding the end zone. Of the top 25 PPR running backs, he was second to last in total touchdowns with just five. If that number comes up to eight and we get a full season, he missed three games in 2020, Edwards-Helaire easily begins to enter the RB1 conversation. I have him ranked as my RB14, but his ceiling is much, much higher.
Jerry Jeudy
ADP: 75.4 | Position ADP: 31st
The entire off-season I had one wish for Jerry Jeudy, for Teddy Bridgewater to be named starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos. Wishes do come true everyone! Just last week Denver planted their flag on Bridgewater as their starting quarterback and I could not be more excited especially for Jeudy. Last season Bridgewater supported fellow downfield threat DJ Moore with Carolina to the tune of 1193 yards, 118 targets, and 66 receptions. Moore finished as WR25 in PPR leagues, but did miss the Week 14 matchup against oddly enough, the Denver Broncos. Jeudy finished as the WR44 in PPR with only five fewer targets than Moore, but trailed in yardage with 856 yards and 52 receptions. The answer to why there was such a difference between the two may be quite simple. Bridgewater finished as the fifth-best quarterback in completion percentage with 69.1% passes completed while Broncos starting quarterback for thirteen games, Drew Lock, was 35th overall with an abysmal 57.3%. With a more efficient passer getting him the ball, Jeudy should see a lot of improvement over his rookie season and ascend to the WR2 conversation.
Curtis Samuel
ADP: 101.2| Position ADP: 42nd
Call this a “late-season breakout” if you will. The player I’ve been touting all offseason hasn’t even had an offseason this point. Since June he’s been dealing with a groin injury, had a two-week stay on the COVID-19 List, and hasn’t participated in a full practice since the injury. Samuel is being eased in by the coaching staff, but the fact remains I still believe in his talent. Last year with the Panthers, Samuel finished with 1051 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns which was good enough to finish as the WR24 in PPR leagues. Once on the field, I expect even better numbers out of Samuel. Last season, Samuel commanded an 18.4% target share which was third on his team. His catch percentage is a lot of the reason why he still managed to finish above teammate DJ Moore in fantasy points with 21 fewer targets. Things look to be different in Washington as he will have an equally efficient passer throwing him the ball in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who finished 7th in completion percentage. The difference is in usage. Fitzpatrick targets his slot receivers, the role Samuel is likely to move into, more than any other quarterback the last seven seasons. The good thing about Samuel is he has fallen down draft boards, which makes him a great option to stick on the end of your bench to start the season. Once he hits the field, he has the potential for WR15 upside.
Kyle Pitts
ADP: 56.4 | Position ADP: 5th
There has not been a rookie talked about this offseason as much as Kyle Pitts. He has not even taken a regular-season snap and many are calling for the sculpting of his bust in Canton to commence. His season at Florida last year was only eight games, but he filled those games with 770 yards and twelve touchdowns, most by a tight end in school history. His role as the second in targets on a pass-happy Falcons offense seems gift-wrapped. The numerous Falcons departures over the offseason, most notably Julio Jones to the Titans, has freed up exactly 200 targets. I don’t think it is out of the question we see Pitts with at least 100 targets in 2021. Only 5 tight ends had over 100 targets last season, and with Pitts’ skillset and red zone capabilities my projection of 77 receptions, 947 yards, and 7 touchdowns seems like a real possibility. Those numbers would have him finishing as the TE3 in PPR leagues in 2020. A rookie TE ending the season as the third-best tight end is easily something you could call a breakout.
With drafts ramping up over the next ten days, make sure you look at Rudy Gamble’s Razzball Site Tools. We are offering a free three-day trial of both our Roto and DFS packages to help you bring home your 2021 fantasy championships. Next week I will be covering my players I am avoiding in drafts; you might have heard it called a “bust” article. I always forget to mention it, but for more fantasy advice, humor, and exquisite film recommendations, you can follow me on Twitter. Ladies and Gentlemen! The article is over. We hope you all enjoyed yourselves and we’ll see you all again in 1974… or next week, I guess. Good evening! *cue ‘Tiny Dancer’*
