Hello all, it’s the most wonderful time of the year – NFL draft season. I have put together my top 10 running backs for you using a combination of production metrics and film.

Without getting too technical, my process heavily weighs volume for running backs. It has been shown that usage in college projects usage in the pros (with the occasional exception). Other college production metrics come into play, for example, efficiency AND volume is better than volume alone and of course projected draft capital has to be considered. Finally, the last step is to turn on the tape and see what traits jump out and how they convert their skills into the production that the stats show.

This list reflects who I would prefer in a vacuum on talent alone. Landing spot is a bigger consideration for me at the running back position than it is for quarterbacks or receivers. So, there will be a higher likelihood of shuffling post draft on this list compared to other positions. Still, I think we should pick players mostly on talent first and the other factors are more like tie-breakers rather than a major consideration. All metrics come from the campus2canton.com data app and athletic testing from mockdraftable.com.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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In the last article we highlighted which NFC players have the most to gain if their current teams don’t draft a player at a similar position. In this article we will discuss which current AFC players have the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft. What this means is if a team passes on a skill position player or quarterback in the first few round which players currently on those rosters today will have the most to gain.

Each section we will highlight the team, how many picks each team has overall, how many picks they have rounds 1-3 and the players who have the most to gain. This article isn’t a mock or predicting any picks. Most likely at least half of these players we talk about today will be impacted by draft picks, but just in case they aren’t here is why we think they can improve in 2021.

Baltimore Ravens
Total picks: 7
Round 1: No. 27 overall
Round 2: No. 58
Round 3: No. 104

Impacted Player: Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown turned it on in the second half of 2020 increasing his production in nearly every metric. This spike in production coincides with Mark Andrews missing time due to COVID. However, even after Andrews returned Brown was still producing at a high level. Below are his stats side by side before Andrews went out with Covid and after he returned. The 13.2 points per game (PPG) in those final 6 weeks (including playoffs) would have made Brown the wide receiver 15 in 2020. Brown’s current Best ball average draft position (ADP) is wide receiver 36.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Hello all, it’s the most wonderful time of the year when hot takes are all the rage and us nerds get to wax poetic about what those silly NFL GMs should do at the end of April. I have put together my top 15 wide receivers for you using a combination of production metrics and film. Without getting too technical, my process is to group players into tiers based on breakout age and other college production metrics which and project draft capital and expected upside then refine those rankings within a tier by watching them play.

This list reflects who I would prefer in a vacuum on talent alone. Of course NFL draft capital and landing spot will come into play, but I think we should pick players on talent first and the other factors are more like tie-breakers rather than a major consideration. All metrics come from the campus2canton.com data app.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Najee Harris – Alabama – 6’2″ 230 lbs. – 3/9/98 (23 years old)

  • Strong, but not elite balance allows him to take (or deliver) a hit and keep going. 
  • Speaking of delivering hits, he’ll drop a shoulder into an oncoming defender or push through the pile.
  • Pulls through arm tackles. Keeps grinding at the end of plays. 
  • Has a knack for getting the first down or touchdown. 

Good vision to wait for a path to open outside. Breaks it back inside and drags the arm tackler for the first down. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Ja’Marr Chase – LSU – 6’0″ 208 lbs. – 3/1/00 (21 years old)

  • All American, Fred Biletnikoff Award Winner
  • Sat out 2020, which would’ve been his junior season. 
  • My #1 player for non-super flex rookie drafts. 
  • Chase looked so amazing in his 2019 campaign that he made Justin Jefferson look like a glorified slot receiver. 
  • His 2019 season held the SEC receiving yards record and TD record with 1780 yards and 20 TDs until DeVonta Smith broke both records the next year. 
  • Elite ability to bring down the ball in jump ball situations. 
  • Hands are strong. Holds on to the ball through contact or above a defender.
  • Please, blog, may I have some more?

DeVonta Smith – Alabama – 6’1″ 175 lbs. – 11/4/98 (22 years old)

Quite possibly the most divisive wide receiver in the 2021 class. Those of you who watch college football have already seen DeVonta Smith and may wonder how a Heisman Trophy winning wide receiver could be divisive. Well, in the dynasty football community, there are the numbers people and the film people, and never shall the 2 meet. No, that’s a lie, hopefully everyone is using a good mix of both, but everyone has their leanings. The numbers people will tell you that he’s too light for his height (BMI), and they don’t like his 3rd year breakout or that he returned for his senior season. Meanwhile, the film community (myself included) see so much football goodness on tape that we can’t understand the concerns.