With one simple line of prediction, all the weeks of Air Yards analysis went down the crapper. Here it is, from the Week 16 Air Yards report:

“Antonio Brown might make the short list of 2021 playoff heroes after this week is over.”

Yikes. As one commenter pointed out, “that prediction did not wear well.” Brown also did not wear his jersey well, dropping it on the ground, and giving a farewell tour around the stadium just after halftime. At that point, his opportunity to help your fantasy team or his real life football team in the playoffs disappeared faster than the cannon smoke from Raymond James Stadium.

But Air Yards, like many other advanced stats, tells us what could (or perhaps should) happen given similar circumstances over time. Brown smashed in Week 16 with no Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Given similar circumstances plus playing-time incentives in Week 17, we had every reason to believe Brown would manhandle the Jets. It was the process and in the process we trust. 

Until a potential mid-game retirement variable is introduced in to the Air Yards model, we will just have to rely on the data we have. What can 2021 air yards teach us for 2022? Let’s find out.