There are eight new coaching positions. And if NFL 2022 preseason is any indication it is going to be fun. They all had their spin on who to play how and when, which technically doesn’t give us an idea of how it is going to turn out…it is preseason after all.
But maybe we can get a glimpse of how these head coaches are going to impact not only their teams but our fantasy teams. And that is us concentrating on what is important.
Of the eight positions, three of the head coaching positions were filled by defensive men. The rest of the coaches come from an offensive background but it appears that all were needed to improve a franchise. Let’s see if it has a chance to work, first looking at the defensive-minded coaches.
HOUSTON TEXANS—LOVIE SMITH
Smith isn’t exactly new to the Texans franchise. He was the defensive coordinator last season. The Texans finished the season 4-13. The defense ranked 31st in yards allowed per game (384.4), 27th in points allowed per game (26.6), 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (142.2) and 22nd in passing yards allowed per game (242.2).
NFL 2022 Texans Draft
Round 1, 3rd Pick: Derek Stingley Jr., Cornerback, LSU
In 2021 the Texans’ cornerbacks allowed the fourth worst yards per attempt (8.3).
Round 1, 15th Pick: Kenyon Green, Offensive Guard, Texans A&M
The 2021 Texans finished 32nd with a 3.4 yards per rush and the offensive line ranked 27th in pass block win rate per ESPN Stats & Info
Round 2, 37th Pick: Jalen Pitre, Safety, Baylor
Pitre played 657 snaps at slot cornerback last season the most in FBS per ESPN Stats & Info
Round 2, 44th Pick: John Metchie III, Wide Receiver, Alabama
The Texans extended wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Texans had 79 receptions by slot receivers last season (28th ranked)
Metchie tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game in December
Round 3, 75th Pick: Christian Harris, Linebacker, Alabama
Harris had 80 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks last season
Round 4, 107th Pick: Dameon Pierce, Running Back, Florida
The Texans signed Marlon Mack in free agency, but the Texans running backs last season not only averaged league-worst 3.4 yards per rush but also only had eight rushing touchdowns (T32nd).
Round 5, 150th Pick: Thomas Booker, Defensive Tackle, Stanford
Round 5, 170th Pick: Teagan Quitoriano, Tight End, Oregon State
The Texans’ tight end room includes 2021-fifth rounder Brevin Jordan, Pharaoh Brown, and Antony Auclair
Round 6, 205th Pick: Austin Deculus, Offensive Tackle, LSU
The Take
While Smith will take over coaching duties and remain defensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton will be the offensive coordinator. Last season Hamilton was the Texans’ Quarterbacks Coach and Passing Game Coordinator. Hamilton has stated that his offense will utilize the strength of the playmakers and emphasize running the ball successfully. (Question, has any coach said that their playbook is designed to weaken the strength of their playmakers? Asking for a friend…er myself).
The Texans ranked 30th in scoring offense last season (16.5 ppg). They were tied for last with the New York Giants in rushing touchdowns (0.5)Â and ranked 28th in passing yards per game (194.4).
This is a marathon, not a sprint. The Texans appear to be excited about the changes in their offense. In preseason they played their starters sparingly. Quarterback Davis Mills went 19-of-30, for 168 yards, two passing touchdowns and one interception. Rookie running back Pierce played in the first and last preseason games, with 11 rushing attempts for 86 yards and one rushing touchdown. He averaged 9.8 yards per attempt in the first game and 6.2 in the last game. Wide receiver Cooks did not play in preseason and tight end Jordan played in all three with five targets, four receptions for 19 total yards.
It is hard to discern much from preseason as some teams play the starters and some don’t.
The Texans went 3-0 in the preseason. If only.
Fantasy Impact
Quarterback, Mills: Mills is currently the QB29 in fantasy pros. He has strength of schedule ranked eighth (easy). But his fantasy impact this season comes in two-quarterback leagues and on your bye weeks.
Wide Receiver, Cooks: Cooks will be WR1 for the Texans. Last season in 12 games with Mills under center he averaged 16 fantasy points per game. His ADP is around the late fifth round. That’s about right for someone who will most likely produce WR2 numbers.
Tight End, Jordan: Per fantasy pros, Jordan finished 2021 with a 19% target rate per route run and had four top-12 finishes in his last nine game. He finished last season as TE43 but should be considered in the third-tier tight ends with his familiarity with Mills in a new offense.
Running Back, Pierce: Pierce is projected to be an every-down back. His main competition will be Mack who is recovering from an Achilles injury. The only hesitation should be the offensive line and Texans consistent lack of ability to produce an efficient run game.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS—DENNIS ALLEN
This is another example of the team’s defensive coordinator becoming the head coach.
NFL 2022 Changes
Besides the loss of Sean Payton after 16 seasons  the Saints made some off-season additions:
Safeties: Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu
Defensive Tackle: Kentavius Street
Linebacker: Eric Wilson
Defensive Backs: Justin Evans and Daniel Sorensen
Defensive Linemen: Jaleel Johnson and Taco Charlton
Wide Receivers: Jarvis Landry
Quarterback: Andy Dalton
The continuity in the coaching staff remains much of the same. Allen who had spent 12 seasons as the defensive assistant is now the head coach.
Peter Carmichael remains the offensive coordinator and will call the offensive plays without Payton.
The Saints finished last season 9-8. The offense was 19th in points per game (21.4), 23rd in plays per game (61.8) and 28th in yards per game (304.5).
The defense allowed opponents only 19.7 points per game (4th) while allowing only 93.5 rushing yards per game (4th) but ranked 32nd in passing yards allowed (187.4).
The offense will return Jameis Winston under center who left last season with a torn ACL and started this preseason with a foot injury. But played in the third preseason game.
In the third preseason game, Landry was the beneficiary. Winston only played the first drive but completed all four passes he attempted for 59 passing yards. The Saints went 1-2 during the preseason.
Fantasy Impact
Not only will Winston return but Michael Thomas should be back after missing all last season. Alvin Kamara missed four games last season with an injury and may face a suspension. And the acquisition of Landry and rookie Chris Olave should help if Kamara is suspended, and Thomas’ latest injury holds either off the field for an amount of time.
Expect continuity.
In 2021 before the injury, Winston averaged only 23 passing attempts per game. He averaged 7.3 yards per attempt and had 14 touchdowns in the seven games before the injury. He is currently QB22.
If the Saints utilize the receiving weapons and Winston can deliver that will be a steal. If Carmichael decides to treat Winston a little less confining than Payton that will be a steal. But that’s a lot of Ifs.
The Saints ran the ball the third-most in the league averaging 48.53% rushing play percentage.
Kamara is currently RB10. That’s low for the dual-threat running back but he is being drafted with caution because of the threat of the unknown suspension. Bet on Kamara outplaying his current ADP.
Thomas did not play all last season because of an ankle injury. He has currently suffered a hamstring injury that is minimizing his time on the field. His ADP in standard leagues is WR27 and in PPR it is WR33. That seems like a lot of draft capital especially when you can get healthy Landry WR55 or Olave WR45 who have spent more preseason time in the offense.
The question is whether the passing percentage will increase this season when Winston and presumably Thomas returns.
Carmichael was Payton’s man in the offense. When Payton was suspended in 2012 (because of Bountygate), Carmichael’s offense averaged 411 yards and 29 points per game (3rd most). But that of course was with completely different personnel.
Look for Carmichael to keep continuity but give Winston a little more room to chuck that ball.
CHICAGO BEARS—MATT EBERFLUS
Eberflus was the defensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts last season.
The Bears finished 6-11 last season.
NFL 2022 Draft
Round 1, Pick 39: Kyler Gordon, Cornerback, Washington
Round 2, Pick 48: Jaquan Brisker, Safety, Pennsylvania State University
Round 3, Pick 71: Velus Jones, Wide Receiver, Tennessee
Round 5, Pick 168: Braxton Jones, Offensive Tackle, Southern Utah
Round 5, Pick 174: Dominique Robinson, Edge, Miami (Ohio)
Round 6, Pick 168: Zach Thomas, Offensive Tackle, San Diego State
Round 6, Pick 203: Trestan Ebner, Running Back, Baylor
Round 6, Pick 207: Doug Kramer, Offensive Line, Illinois
Round 7, Pick 226: Ja’Tyre Carter, Offensive Line, Southern
Round 7, Pick 254: Elijah Hicks, California
Round 7, Pick 255: Trenton Gill, Punter, North Carolina State
Last season the Bears were 30th in passing yards per game (188.6), 23rd passing plays per game (31.9) and 14th in plays per game (63.2). While being 11th in rushing attempts per game (27.9) and 15th in average rushing yards per game (118.7).
The hire of Eberflus was a surprise for those who believed the Bears needed an offensive head coach to help with the development of Justin Fields. The acquisition of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy who previously was the offensive game coordinator in Green Bay is faced with more optimism.
Getsy appears to be utilizing an offensive scheme like what we are used to seeing from Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. This is an offense that depends on play-action and bootleg passing. Fields was more successful last year when throwing than most give him credit. He had a 45.8% completion percentage on play action, 37.1% completion percentage when pressured and a 66.5% completion percentage from a clean pocket.
In his preseason games Week1, Fields went 4-for-7, for 48 passing yards and two sacks. He had one rushing attempt for 10 yards. Week2, Fields went 5-of-7 for 39 yards with one carry for one yard and in Week3 14-of-16 for 156 yards, three touchdowns while having two rushing attempts and 11 yards against the Cleveland Browns.
Fantasy Impact
Fields is currently going as QB17. Last season in his last seven starts he rushed on average 7.4 times for 51.6 rushing yards. That was with Matt Nagy mismanaging his skill set. Now with Getsy apparently allowing Fields to play to his strengths this potentially allows Fields to outplay his current ADP. Watch for a heavy dose of the wide zone rushing attack utilizing play action and bootlegs. This will allow Fields to unleash for deep throws and gain yardage with his scrambling. Â
Darnell Mooney is WR1 in Chicago with tight end Cole Kmet making a case for getting the second most targets this season.
Last season Mooney was 31st in PPR points per game. This is while he finished with 140 targets (11th), 81 receptions (18th) while seeing 27.3% of the targets and 34.8% of the air yards. The Bears’ offense was a picture of inefficiency.
Looking at the draft the Bears did not do Fields any favors. The impact on the offense will depend on Getsy’s schemes.
That could be a lot to ask with the offense working by Sharp Football Analysis ranking the Bears offensive line 32nd. Â
AND NOW…
Two of the three defensive-minded coaches that now find themselves head coaches stayed with the same team. Both were promoted from within for the offensive side of the ball. That level of continuity can be a curse. The same results aren’t what the teams need.
But the Bears went for a complete much-needed makeover. The hiring of a defensive head coach was meant with some skepticism. But Eberflus has picked from the Kyle Shanahan tree for his offense. Early reports it might work. For fantasy, it looks the most promising of the three.
