The main point I make to people in week one of the NFL season is that you can’t know what to expect. Be wary of who you think is a good team or bad team. That pendulum swings the same way in week two. Don’t think you know who a team is because of a one-week performance. I’m looking at you Tampa Bay. To bring it back to our DFS Donkeycorn analogy, it’s still hard to tell the oasis from the mirage. Let proven producers like DeAndre Hopkins lead you to water. There will be plenty of overreaction to things we saw last week. Capitalize on that. My favorite plays this week:
- Deshaun Watson, $6300: The Titans passing defense will not be fixed overnight. Belichick may have also been right on Malcolm Butler who’s performance was a mixed bag. Attack Tennessee with WR1s whenever possible and stack their QB.
- Alex Smith, $6000: The Optimizer (free 7-day trial available) likes Alex Smith as the top value at QB. The Colts on the road make for easy pickings. Smith gelled with his new offense immediately, utilizing the underneath weapons of Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.
- Christian McCaffrey, $7000: Once Greg Olson went down last season CMC became the go-to passing option in Carolina. It’s only week 2 and we’re back here: no Olson and a muddled wide receiver pool. I smell a shootout in Atlanta’s dome coming. The only safe bet outside of Cam is McCaffrey.
- Alfred Morris, $3600: One of the 49er backs is going off this game. I’ll gamble on the cheaper one who saw more red zone work.
- DeAndre Hopkins, $8000: A quiet week one combined with one of the best possible week two matchups make Nuk my favorite play this week. Kenny Stills is a fine receiver, but he’s not on Hopkins level. If Stills can double dong vs Tennesse what can DeAndre do?
- Kenny Golladay, $4800: Golladay’s performance wasn’t a one-week thing. He’s the best WR on the Lions. I was higher on him than many coming into the season, so it’s possible I’m going to get some wicked whiplash from this confirmation bias. I don’t think so, though. Golladay is going to draw more and more targets from Stafford, who’s constantly in trouble and looking for an outlet.
- George Kittle, $3800: Kittle is the only pass catcher on the team with any size. He should be a primary end zone target in the frequent trips there the Lions figure to allow. He narrowly missed scoring last week. Had that happened he’d be the TE chalk.
- Ben Watson, $3400: Old Ben had a decent showing last week believe it or not. Tight end is one of the few positions the Bucs actually defend. The Browns do not. They were a top 5 target for me vs TEs last year. After they cut Michael “Easy-Money” Kendricks they went right back there.
- Philadelphia Eagles, $3400. I bet on a Ryan Fitzpatrick tire fire along with much of the world last week. The Saints got no pressure on him and he went full Fitzmagic. The Eagles should be a different story with one of the best pass rushes in the league. I’ll bet against Fitz any chance I get and I’m confident I’ll come out ahead.
- Washington Team, $2700: The Colts struggle to score on the road typically. Andrew Luck only attempted a handful of passes double digits in distance last week, as well. Washington has been improving their D-line and it might be starting to pay dividends.