The main point I make to people in week one of the NFL season is that you can’t know what to expect. Be wary of who you think is a good team or bad team. That pendulum swings the same way in week two. Don’t think you know who a team is because of a one-week performance. I’m looking at you Tampa Bay. To bring it back to our DFS Donkeycorn analogy, it’s still hard to tell the oasis from the mirage. Let proven producers like DeAndre Hopkins lead you to water. There will be plenty of overreaction to things we saw last week. Capitalize on that. My favorite plays this week:

QB

  • Deshaun Watson, $6300: The Titans passing defense will not be fixed overnight. Belichick may have also been right on Malcolm Butler who’s performance was a mixed bag. Attack Tennessee with WR1s whenever possible and stack their QB.
  • Alex Smith, $6000: The Optimizer (free 7-day trial available) likes Alex Smith as the top value at QB. The Colts on the road make for easy pickings. Smith gelled with his new offense immediately, utilizing the underneath weapons of Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.

RB

  • Christian McCaffrey, $7000: Once Greg Olson went down last season CMC became the go-to passing option in Carolina. It’s only week 2 and we’re back here: no Olson and a muddled wide receiver pool. I smell a shootout in Atlanta’s dome coming. The only safe bet outside of Cam is McCaffrey.
  • Alfred Morris, $3600: One of the 49er backs is going off this game. I’ll gamble on the cheaper one who saw more red zone work.

WR

  • DeAndre Hopkins, $8000: A quiet week one combined with one of the best possible week two matchups make Nuk my favorite play this week. Kenny Stills is a fine receiver, but he’s not on Hopkins level. If Stills can double dong vs Tennesse what can DeAndre do?
  • Kenny Golladay, $4800: Golladay’s performance wasn’t a one-week thing. He’s the best WR on the Lions. I was higher on him than many coming into the season, so it’s possible I’m going to get some wicked whiplash from this confirmation bias. I don’t think so, though. Golladay is going to draw more and more targets from Stafford, who’s constantly in trouble and looking for an outlet.

TE

  • George Kittle, $3800: Kittle is the only pass catcher on the team with any size. He should be a primary end zone target in the frequent trips there the Lions figure to allow. He narrowly missed scoring last week. Had that happened he’d be the TE chalk.
  • Ben Watson, $3400: Old Ben had a decent showing last week believe it or not. Tight end is one of the few positions the Bucs actually defend. The Browns do not. They were a top 5 target for me vs TEs last year. After they cut Michael “Easy-Money” Kendricks they went right back there.

DEF

  • Philadelphia Eagles, $3400. I bet on a Ryan Fitzpatrick tire fire along with much of the world last week. The Saints got no pressure on him and he went full Fitzmagic. The Eagles should be a different story with one of the best pass rushes in the league. I’ll bet against Fitz any chance I get and I’m confident I’ll come out ahead.
  • Washington Team, $2700: The Colts struggle to score on the road typically. Andrew Luck only attempted a handful of passes double digits in distance last week, as well. Washington has been improving their D-line and it might be starting to pay dividends.

  1. Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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    14 team PPR keep 2 (joined league back when AB was a 4th rounder, he’ll be that as long as i want him). no top 2 rounder can ever be kept. never got less than 3rd in this league, but this year is getting so injured already that’s looking hard. DID get VERY lucky to win week 1 with TWO zeros in my WR slots (baldwin/goodwin). goodwin was the 2nd keeper (last rounder). one move left on week. just dropped gio B too. and drafted mckinnon in 2nd round (then way overbid to get morris)
    QB luck/trubisky (could dump the backup here, all of these available: tyrod, winston, tannehill, flacco)
    RB (2) mixon (out at least 2 weeks, sounds like 4-5 though when he was compared to michel just now), morris, crowell, burkhead, montgomery
    WR (3) AB, beasley, pettis (just added), beasley, richardson (late week injury, no fri practice), a.wilson (parker sounds back, yuck for wilson), baldwin (right when i finally find his price worth buying for the first time ever in only instance owned ever)
    TE (1) doyle
    1 flex
    IR (2) goodwin, jeffery (at least eventually i have good WR coming back), completely hilarious that goodwin is ruled out BEFORE baldwin

    was already thinking of grabbing pettis to maybe start over richardson this week with goodwin out, that’s pretty easy now that richardson shows up with late week injury

    1. drop a.wilson for hines or richard? (RB depth getting further hurt by mixon needing shortish term surgery, never really knowing how hurt burkhead might actually be), wilson is dropped later anyway when goodwin or jeffery is back.

  2. Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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    14 team PPR keep 2 (joined league back when AB was a 4th rounder, he’ll be that as long as i want him). no top 2 rounder can ever be kept. never got less than 3rd in this league, but this year is getting so injured already that’s looking hard. DID get VERY lucky to win week 1 with TWO zeros in my WR slots (baldwin/goodwin). goodwin was the 2nd keeper (last rounder). one move left on week. just dropped gio B too. and drafted mckinnon in 2nd round (then way overbid to get morris)
    QB luck/trubisky (could dump the backup here, all of these available: tyrod, winston, tannehill, flacco)
    RB (2) mixon (out at least 2 weeks, sounds like 4-5 though when he was compared to michel just now), morris, crowell, burkhead, montgomery
    WR (3) AB, beasley, pettis (just added), beasley, richardson (late week injury, no fri practice), a.wilson (parker sounds back, yuck for wilson), baldwin (right when i finally find his price worth buying for the first time ever in only instance owned ever)
    TE (1) doyle
    1 flex
    IR (2) goodwin, jeffery

    was already thinking of grabbing pettis to maybe start over richardson this week with goodwin out, that’s pretty easy now that richardson shows up with late week injury

    1. drop a.wilson for hines or richard? (RB depth getting further hurt by mixon needing shortish term surgery, never really knowing how hurt burkhead might actually be), wilson is dropped later anyway when goodwin or jeffery is back.

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
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      @Stupid Sexy Glanders: maybe burn this roster and bury the ashes so it’s evil doesn’t spread?

      I’d go Hines over Wilson. Was there a question 2?

      • Roto-Wan

        Roto-Wan says:
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        @Stupid Sexy Glanders: I don’t think Beasley is all that good. Not from a fantasy perspective. You need to gamble some.

        • Stupid Sexy Glanders says:
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          @Roto-Wan: with the one move that’s hold a.wilson (over richard, hines is gone now AND hold a.wilson over beasley) while dropping beasley for callaway, so beasley’s behind a.wilson (even with parker back) too?

  3. For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron says:
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    12 teamer with 6 PT td throws. lost walker is why i have watson and jonnu, now the latter seems no reason to hold (only added in case he got walker’s usual target share so i could dodge waiver grabs from others). weekly reset waivers, i might actually win again somehow with this (had mariota starting last week and won), but if not i’m more likely to get callaway.
    QB tygod
    RB (2) barkley, ajayi, coleman, royce, clement
    WR (2) fitz, k.allen, cobb, hurns, grant (could’ve dropped grant for callaway just before CLE’s game, didn’t though)
    TE (1) watson (stupid brees today), jonnu
    IR jeffery

    i’m done trusting the bots on hurns, 5 targets in 2 games is enough for me. grant also had no volume this week, after TONS in week 1.
    drop either/both (the other is gone when jeffery is back anyway) for what order of: callaway (CLEARLY he’s the top grab), boyd, pryor (can’t believe suddenly this guy is useful), j.gordon, richarson, a.wilson

    2. suppose i can also drop jonnu for RB depth or a different TE (but streaming these might work too, or just hold watson)
    RB: riddick (he’s gotta be the best here), j.allen, wilkins, hines
    TE: j.james, ASJ, hooper,

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
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      @For An Armenianless Vacation Come to Akron: I know Calloway caught a bomb yesterday, but not sure that’s likely to happen often with Tyrod. Since he’s you’re QB it makes sense to stack, though. Grant is your top cut. I’d sign off on dropping Hurns for Pryor, Flash, Boyd (in order).

      I’d like to see Jonnu in action with Mariota before cutting him. ASJ is a better option, though.

  4. Roto-Wan says:
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    I know Calloway caught a bomb yesterday, but not sure that’s likely to happen often with Tyrod. Since he’s you’re QB it makes sense to stack, though. Grant is your top cut. I’d sign off on dropping Hurns for Pryor, Flash, Boyd (in order).

    I’d like to see Jonnu in action with Mariota before cutting him. ASJ is a better option, though.

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