The NFL year goes by so fast and the fantasy football season with it. As we approach the halfway point of 2019, I plan to spend next week’s article with a blurb on the second half outlook of each team, or player from each team, from a data point perspective. For this week though we stick with the norm of finding trends and in-week matchups we can expose. Hope everyone has a great finish to the first half of the fantasy season!
Russell Wilson Set To Explode (Source: Football Outsiders and Sharp Football Stats)
Pete Carroll is going to be chomping on that gum with a smile on his face all day on Sunday. The Seattle Seahawks passing game is set up to throw it all over the yard with success against the Falcons in Atlanta. The Falcons may be able to control the line of scrimmage more than expected as they are 8th in the league in defensive adjusted line yards. The Seattle offensive line is bottom ten in adjusted line yards. Alternatively, the Seattle offense is 5th in explosive pass rate and #8 in explosive play rate overall. The Falcons are currently 28th in explosive pass rate allowed. DK Metcalf is currently WR24 on the FantasyPros consensus rankings for the week, but I believe he is comfortably a WR2 this week and expect Russell Wilson to connect on at least one deep ball. It would be a riskier DFS play if Matt Ryan is out, as the game script could turn positive for Seattle. Always remember that the game must get to a blowout somehow. I expect that to be through the air.
Eagles Defensive Renaissance (Source: Sports Info Solutions and Sharp Football Stats)
The Philadelphia Eagles gave up 37 points last week to the Cowboys, much of which was due to multiple offensive blunders providing the Cowboys with plus field position. The Eagles remain a mid-range defense (15th in defensive DVOA and 18th in yards allowed). The Bills offense leads the NFL in adjusted line yards, which is the foundation for their offense. However, the Eagles are 2nd in defensive adjusted line yards meaning the Bills may struggle to move the ball. The Eagles secondary has been ripped apart but has prevented explosive passes (8th least by percentage in the NFL). Josh Allen will need to methodically move the ball down the field in this one. I wouldn’t bet on it. I like the Eagles to bounce back this week on the road and a 43.5 total seems far to high.
DJ Chark Bounce Back (Source: Sports Info Solutions)
The Jets second cornerback Darryl Roberts has been targeted 47 times this season and is 122 in success rate. His defensive backfield mate Trumaine Johnson isn’t fairing much better as the 72nd corner in success rate. This looks like a great bounce back spot the DJ Chark and Gardiner Minshew after a dip in targets for the past two weeks. The game shouldn’t draw a heavy ownership with one of the lowest totals on the board. I like the odds of another spiked week for DJ.
Kyle Allen’s Big Test (Source Football Outsiders)
It seems like the Panthers are leaning towards continuing to move forward in 2019 with Kyle Allen as their quarterback. I’m interested to see if the view of Allen changes this weekend. The Niners are strong up front against the run (#3 in adjusted line yards) and the Panthers have struggled mightily against the elite run defenses faced in 2019 (Tampa Bay and Houston). Everyone who owns Christian McCaffrey in season long is locking him into their lineup, and he always has the capacity to beat a matchup in other ways. However, I do know the Panthers passing game is going to be in the spotlight this weekend in a game shaping up as the marquee matchup of the weekend (unless Patrick Mahomes truly is inhuman). I downgrade DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel, but I’m more interested in if Kyle Allen can continue to beat his expected competition percentage (+2%) and lead this offense to the playoffs.