The below chart is not there to give you seizures, but to hopefully help you, not disable you.  I am a fan of Football Outsiders’ method of evaluating defenses called DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).  Instead of just taking the total number of yards given up on the ground or through the air, they look at situations and results.  Certain situations are valued more than others.  If a running back gains 5 yards on 3rd and 4 it is more detrimental to the defense than if he runs for 5 yards on 3rd and 20. If a team throws against your prevent D while behind by 4 touchdowns in the 4th quarter, it isn’t as valued as if they did the same down by a field goal in the 4th quarter.  What I also appreciate is they value the most recent games when ranking defenses, so the rankings you will see here are more heavily weighted toward the end of last season instead of equally throughout.  For a more thorough explanation go here.

Now we all know that personnel and coaching changes over the offseason will impact defenses, but most teams, at least at the beginning of this year will be in the same ballpark as they were toward the end of last year.  What I’ve concocted in my nerd lab is a NFL Schedule Grid with color codings showing weak to strong defenses against the pass.  Blue meaning, “freeze buddy!  don’t pass against me, yo.”  And red meaning, “geez, I’m a cornerback and it’s really hot out here and I need a drink, wait, what was I doing?” And the other two in the middle, you’ll need to come up with some funny little dialogue to make them more interesting.  These will be useful in giving you an idea of how certain team’s schedules might work for or against their pass attack.  I believe these will be especially helpful in salary cap leagues or any format where you can switch out players more readily.  Below are just the first 4 weeks to give you an idea, but you can click here for the whole schedule.  And soon I will do the same with rushing defenses as well.

I’ve also added a 2009 NFL Schedule Grid which I always find useful when I’m alone in the attic.

DVOA4WeekPass

  1. agarthered says:
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    Would you take Ronnie Brown over Westbrook?

  2. Doc says:
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    @agarthered: Yes but I would still try to get Brown closer to his Adp early in the third round.

  3. Nick says:
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    Hey, so I’m new to the football side of things here at Razzball. I had my draft last night. 10 teams H2H on Yahoo!

    QB-Brees
    WR- Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh, Roy Williams
    RB- Jones & Addai
    TE- Shockey
    WR/RB – Larry Johnson
    BN- Ted Ginn Jr, Eli, Mendenhall, Branch, Miller

    K- Bironas & Folk
    D- Jets

    Is there anyone you see on there not worth owning even to start the season (late picks were autodrafted) and maybe look to waivers? Overall opinions of team?

  4. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Nick:Your RB situation is in much need of help. You don’t need 2 kickers, Bith are good, but I’d drop Folk. I would look to trade Brees for RB upgrades over Jones and Addai. You could look to switch Branch out if there is someone worthwhile on waivers. In a ten team league this is a fairly weak team so I really think you need to use your blue chip player Brees for upgrades.

  5. CKR says:
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    Doc, took your full color grid, threw it into a spreadsheet and made a rough strength of passing defense schedule. Assigned values of blue = 4, yellow = 3, orange = 2 and red = 1.

    Here are the results:

    2.00 TEN
    2.06 IND

    2.13 SF
    2.13 STL
    2.19 HOU

    2.25 JAC

    2.31 ARI
    2.31 SEA
    2.38 OAK

    2.44 BUF
    2.44 MIA

    2.50 NE
    2.50 NYJ
    2.50 WAS
    2.56 CAR
    2.56 GB
    2.56 KC
    2.56 MIN
    2.56 PHI
    2.56 TB

    2.63 BAL
    2.63 CHI
    2.63 CLE
    2.69 DAL
    2.69 DEN
    2.69 NYG
    2.69 SD

    2.75 DET
    2.75 NO
    2.75 PIT

    2.81 ATL
    2.81 CIN

    Puts a Peyton Manning vs Brees vs Brady discussion into a different perspective.

  6. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @CKR: Cool, thanks. True. Indy looks like they have a pass friendly schedule.

    I do think I would value these rankings more toward the beginning of the season than toward the end.

    I hope to continue something similar to this as more data is in from the first few games.

  7. danimal35 says:
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    another draft tonight…standard league…7th pick…looks like I will have a choice of D. Williams, Chris Johnson or Steven Jackson…I think I will have to go Williams, especially with Stewart nursing a sore achilles (those things just don’t go away)…any arguments to the contrary…If slaton falls back to me I will definitely pick him up, otherwise I will have to adjust…I think receivers and QBs might go quick around the turn in this one

  8. danimal35 says:
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    EDIT: if slaton falls *in the 2nd*

  9. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @danimal35: I had the 7th pick in my draft yesterday….Williams was gone (6th pick). I took Steven Jackson and was happy he was still there at 7. By my 2nd pick, Gore, Westbrook, Slaton were all gone…I took Andre Johnson.

  10. agarthered says:
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    @doc

    I have second last pick in my keeper league, i have a feeling im going to have a choice between ronnie brown and westbrook, maybe gore. If Gore is still there, i’ll be taking him, if not, I might take moss or andre, and get Ronnie on the wrap.

  11. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @danimal35: I don’t think you can go wrong with Deangelo. Slaton probably won’t fall, but you’ll just have to see. I would be happy with a top 4 WR there.

    @agarthered: If you can get Moss or AJ go for it. I love Ronnie, but you should be able to get him next.

    @Joe Cooper: That’s crazy.

  12. G says:
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    This article shows another reason why I wouldnt mind gambling on Schaub this season. Just have to make sure you have a solid backup

  13. danimal35 says:
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    i like how that one article said Ricky Williams still looks like Ricky and is tearing it up…last year he did the same thing and I got caught in the hype (I spent a lower mid-round pick on him) and ended up dropping him..my uncle, an avid Dolphins fan, had said he looked like the best football player on the field….pre-season pre-season pre-season!!!

  14. danimal35 says:
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    I have a feeling the top 4 WRs are going to be gone by the time it gets back to me…if Slaton is gone (i kinda expect him to be) and the top 4 WRs are gone, do I go with Ronnie B or try and snag him in the 3rd?

  15. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @danimal35: 10 or 12 team league?

  16. danimal35 says:
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    12-team…i think that answers my ?…12- go ronnie…10-wait til 3rd???

  17. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @danimal35: Well, that’s a tough call. You’ll be drafting 7, 18, 31. Looking at adp you could get Deangelo, White/Jennings, Brown. That is the best case scenario of course, but it does fit within adp.

  18. agarthered says:
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    @doc

    In another keeper league i have second pick. AP is getting kept, MJD will most likely go first, I am keeping Turner(2nd round) and Roddy White(4th round), in this league i can start two qbs.

    Do i take LT, Brees, Brady, or Manning?

  19. agarthered says:
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    ps: Forte and Chris johnson getting kept, sjax also available, and its a ppr league.

  20. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @agarthered: With 2 QB’s and the fact that you have White and Turner already I think it might be worth it to go Brees. If you think you could get something like Rodgers/Rivers/Schaub while still getting LT/SJax I’d do that, but if not I’d grab Brees.

  21. mrfootball says:
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    I am in a deep IDP league so Doc what numbers do you think these Gems will put up – they are my deep sleepers

    AKEEM JORDAN
    LARRY FOOTE
    LAWRENCE TIMMONS
    JUSTIN DURANT

  22. danimal35 says:
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    I like Durant if he’s healthy, a tackling machine…last I heard he was battling injury

  23. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @mrfootball:

    Jordan:80 tackles
    Foote: 80 tackles 3-5 sacks
    Timmons isn’t a deep sleeper. He could get 7-9 sacks this year and make some big plays. 70 tackles
    Durant isn’t a sleeper either where he could get up to 100 tackles and be in on a lot of other fumble, ints, etc….

  24. David says:
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    Trade Larry Johnson for Joe Addai when I already have Donald Brown?

    Thanks for the help!

  25. Hank

    Hank says:
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    @David: I’d keep Johnson, that way you have 2 startable backs as opposed ot a handcuff situation. I see Brown taking away carries from Addai, and with Addai performance last season, I think Johnson is a more likely bounce back candidate.

  26. Doc

    Doc says:
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    Hey all, there were a few errors in the color coding. Nothing huge, but I think I found them all. I’ve updated the link.

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