The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 5.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide to WRs this season.

 

Team Slot PPG Wide PPG Total PPG % Slot
TB 11.3 37.7 48.9 23%
WSH 12.8 31.6 44.4 29%
DAL 8.7 29.5 38.2 23%
ATL 11 23.7 34.7 32%
TEN 20.5 23.2 43.7 47%
KC 9.2 23 32.2 29%
ARI 12.8 22.9 35.6 36%
NO 12.3 21.9 34.2 36%
IND 13.3 21 34.3 39%
GB 4.9 21 25.9 19%
DET 7.9 20.4 28.2 28%
NYG 9.4 20.3 29.6 32%
CHI 17.2 20.2 37.4 46%
MIN 13.3 20 33.3 40%
LAR 11.1 19.8 30.8 36%
JAX 13.1 19.6 32.6 40%
PIT 17.4 19.2 36.6 48%
DEN 9.6 19.1 28.7 34%
CAR 5.8 18.8 24.5 23%
SEA 15.7 18.3 34 46%
CIN 12.8 17.5 30.3 42%
HOU 8.9 17.5 26.4 34%
SF 12.1 16.4 28.4 42%
PHI 12.5 15.6 28.1 44%
LV 9.4 15.4 24.8 38%
CLE 11.1 14.6 25.7 43%
LAC 7.6 13.4 20.9 36%
NE 10.5 13.1 23.6 44%
MIA 14.8 13 27.8 53%
NYJ 10.5 12.6 23.1 45%
BUF 5.2 12.1 17.3 30%
BAL 15.3 9.7 25 61%
NFL AVG 11.5 19.4 30.9 37%

Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2021

Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2021

Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2021

% Slot – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot in 2021

 

Out Wide Matchup Upgrades

 

Team: New York Jets

Opponent: Atlanta Falcons

Matchup Upgrade: Corey Davis

 

Corey Davis through the first month of the season has established himself as Zach Wilson’s go to WR. Davis leads the Jets in every receiving category including receptions (16) yards (257) and TDs (3). Davis has been a bit up and down as he has two top 10 finishes and 2 finishes outside the top 50 for WRs on the year. This has lot to do with his matchups as it has been tough sledding for Davis. Davis has only faced one defense that is over the league average in PPG allowed out wide. This was in week 4 vs. the Titans and Davis didn’t disappoint as he secured 4-111-1.

This week Davis gets on another great matchup as the Jets play the Falcons in week 5. The Falcons this season have allowed the 4th most points to WRs on the outside. This includes solid games from DeVonta Smith (6-71-1), Mike Evans (5-75-2) and Terry McLaurin (6-123-2). Currently ranked as the WR25 on the week, Davis should be viewed as a solid WR2 in week 5.  

 

Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

Matchup Upgrade: Tee Higgins

 

We will add an honorary mention in here for Ja’Marr Chase as well as top Packers CB Jaire Alexander will not play this week. Chase seems to be cemented as a weekly start as he is currently ranked as the WR16 on the week.

Now let’s get to why we are really here and that is Tee Higgins. Higgins returns this week after suffering a shoulder injury in week 2. Higgins was off to a hot start to start the year leading the team in targets (15), receptions (10) and had two TDs through two weeks. Higgins put up this production vs. similar opponents in fantasy points allowed to out wide WRs. The Bears after 4 weeks rank 13th and the Vikings rank 14th in fantasy points allowed this season to out wide WRs.

This week’s opponent the Packers even with top CB Alexander in the lineup have allowed the 10th most points per game to out wide WRs. This includes allowing season high performances to Quintez Cephus (4-63-1), Brandon Aiyuk (4-37-1) and Diontae Johnson (9-92-1), Currently ranked as the WR36 on the week, Higgins should be viewed as a borderline WR2 in this matchup.

 

Team: New York Giants

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys

Matchup Upgrade: Kenny Golladay

 

Kenny Golladay is beginning to find his footing with the Giants as we have seen his production rise every week since week 2. This was capped off by his first 100 yard receiving performance just last week going for 6-116 vs. the Saints. Golladay’s big performance came vs. top Saints CB Marshon Lattimore and a Saints DST that has allowed the 8th most points to outside WRs this season. A lot of this had to do with necessity as the Giants were down 2 of their 3 top pass catchers in Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. That being said, both WRs have been ruled out again in week 5.

This week Golladay gets an even juicier matchup as the Giants take on the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have allowed the 3rd most points to out wide WRs this season. This includes monster stat lines from Antonio Brown (5-121-1), Mike Williams (7-91-1), and D.J. Moore (8-113-2). Even though, Dallas top CB Trevon Diggs should be expected to shadow Golladay, Kenny G has been the shadow CB assassin throughout his career. This matchup along with the potential of a shoutout vs. a great Dallas offense makes Golladay a WR2 in week 5.

 

Out Wide Matchup Downgrades

 

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

Opponent: Cleveland Browns

Matchup Downgrade: Mike Williams

 

Mike Williams started the year white hot finding the end zone in 3 straight games. This led to 3 top 16 WR finishes and 1 WR1 finish on the week. Williams has clearly turned a corner in his usage as he has seen a ridiculous target count of 12, 10 and 9 through those first few weeks. However, we wouldn’t be doing our due diligence if we didn’t point out his fantastic early season schedule. Those first 3 opponents are inside the top 6 in PPG allowed to out wide WRs with Washington (2nd), Dallas (3rd) and Kansas City (6th). In week 4 Williams saw his first tough out wide opponent in the Raiders who are ranked 25th in points allowed to out wide WRs. That led to a slow day for big Mike as he only secured 1-11 on 4 targets.

This week things will not get easier for Williams as the Chargers will take on the Browns. The Browns are right next to the Raiders in fantasy points allowed to out wide WRs at 26th. This includes only allowing 1 TD out wide to WRs this year. Currently ranked as the WR17 on the week, Williams should be viewed more as a WR3/flex in week 5.

 

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: Miami Dolphins

Matchup Downgrade: Mike Evans

 

Through the first 4 weeks of the season Mike Evans has shown he will still get plenty of volume in a crowded Bucs receiving core as he is 12th in targets so far in 2021. This has led to some nice performances vs. the Falcons (5-75-2) and Rams (8-106). Even in a tougher matchup vs. the Patriots 28th out wide defense in week 4, Evans’ volume helped him secure (7-75). Yes, those numbers were solid, but that performance landed him outside the top 24 on the week.

This brings us to the Evans’ week 4 matchup as the Bucs take on the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are even tougher vs. outside WRs as they allowed the 4th fewest points to the position this season. This has lot to do with top CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones playing well this season. The good news for Evans owners is he does see about 25% of his targets from the slot and based on his volume this season, he should have a solid floor. So, if you need a high floor play then Evans should be fine, but if you want to any upside out of your WR2 position we suggest you look elsewhere in week 5.

 

Team: Houston Texans

Opponent: New England Patriots

Matchup Downgrade: Brandin Cooks

 

At first the Davis Mills experience didn’t look so bad for Brandin Cooks as he secured 9-112 vs. the Carolina Panthers. The honeymoon phase didn’t last long for fantasy managers as the very next week Cooks flopped only catching 5-47 vs. the Bills. To Cook’s credit, the Bills have allowed the 2nd fewest points to out wide WRs in 2021 so his 5-47 wasn’t terrible. For fantasy managers though we don’t get points for better than expected. 

This brings us to the Texans week 5 opponent the Patriots. A couple things about the Patriots DST that makes Cooks a fade. First, the matchup itself is tough as the Patriots allow the 5th fewest points to out wide WRs. This includes holding down Mike Evans (7-75), Antonio Brown (7-63) and Corey Davis (2-8). The bigger thing that makes Cooks a fade is Billy B is notorious BIG for taking away opposing teams #1 option. In the Texans case that is clearly Cooks. This make Cooks nothing more than a borderline WR3/4 in week 5.

 

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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders

 

  1. FrankGrimes says:
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    Starting AJBrown Shenault and Corey D over Mike Williams this week
    Agree?

    • Bobby LaMarco

      Bobby LaMarco says:
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      Yes, that is what I would do personally.

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        Doh!

        • Bobby LaMarco

          Bobby LaMarco says:
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          All I can say is I am sorry! I will work on sharping the analysis for next week. Hopefully I can get a second chance.

  2. Chucky says:
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    PPR Dart throws, Any of Osborn, Rondale or Callaway over Mike Will?

    • Bobby LaMarco

      Bobby LaMarco says:
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      No, not rolling the dice on any of those guys over Mike Williams.

  3. Alto says:
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    Bit of a mind bender. Timing based issues. And the back end seems pretty close to me.

    Half ppr, two wr, two rb, two flex-
    Pick four- aj brown, thielen, tee Higgins, laviska (this is my current thought), Kenny g , Pittman

    If it’s Kenny g in that second flex- based on timing of games- do
    You use James Conner instead if Edmonds can’t go.

    Site is putting out some cool articles this year. Keeping it interesting but not approachable. Thanks again.

    • Bobby LaMarco

      Bobby LaMarco says:
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      I am actually good with the starting 4 being Brown, Higgins, Thielen and Laviska. I would play Conner over Golladay if Edmonds is out. Thanks for the feedback.

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