The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 6.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide to WRs this season.
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG | % Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 9.8 | 32.2 | 42 | 23% |
| WAS | 12.4 | 30.9 | 43.3 | 29% |
| DAL | 7.9 | 28.3 | 36.2 | 22% |
| IND | 12 | 23.9 | 35.9 | 33% |
| NYG | 8.8 | 22.9 | 31.7 | 28% |
| KC | 8.9 | 22.8 | 31.7 | 28% |
| ARI | 10.8 | 22 | 32.8 | 33% |
| LAR | 10.4 | 21.6 | 32 | 32% |
| NO | 11.2 | 21.5 | 32.7 | 34% |
| ATL | 10.6 | 21.4 | 32 | 33% |
| TEN | 18.8 | 21.2 | 40 | 47% |
| MIA | 15.3 | 21 | 36.3 | 42% |
| CIN | 11.2 | 20.6 | 31.8 | 35% |
| PIT | 15.8 | 20.3 | 36.1 | 44% |
| DET | 8.1 | 19.9 | 28 | 29% |
| SEA | 16 | 19.8 | 35.8 | 45% |
| GB | 8 | 19.7 | 27.7 | 29% |
| DEN | 10.8 | 19.6 | 30.4 | 35% |
| CHI | 15.5 | 18.4 | 33.9 | 46% |
| SF | 12.2 | 18.4 | 30.6 | 40% |
| MIN | 11.9 | 18.2 | 30.1 | 40% |
| JAC | 11.8 | 18.1 | 29.9 | 40% |
| CLE | 12.6 | 17.9 | 30.5 | 41% |
| CAR | 6.1 | 17.8 | 23.9 | 26% |
| HOU | 8.4 | 16.5 | 24.9 | 34% |
| NYJ | 9 | 15 | 24 | 37% |
| LAC | 6.6 | 14.7 | 21.3 | 31% |
| NE | 12.5 | 14.2 | 26.7 | 47% |
| PHI | 10.8 | 14.2 | 25 | 43% |
| BUF | 6.5 | 14.2 | 20.7 | 31% |
| BAL | 13.1 | 13.7 | 26.8 | 49% |
| LV | 8.9 | 13.3 | 22.2 | 40% |
| NFL AVG | 11 | 19.8 | 30.8 | 36% |
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2021
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2021
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2021
% Slot – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from the slot in 2021
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Matchup Upgrade: Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks has been featured in this very analysis over the past few weeks as a WR to fade. The good news for fantasy owners and the Cook’s family is he back to being a buy in week 6. It wasn’t too long ago that Cook’s was the talk of the town as he began the year with 3 straight games of at least 15 points in .5 PPR. Since then, Cook’s has failed to top 8 points in .5 PPR in back-to-back weeks. These down performances came against two of the tougher out wide defenses in the Bills and Patriots who currently rank in the bottom 5 in points allowed out wide.
This week Cook’s has an opportunity to bounce back in a big way as the Texans take on the Colts. The Colts have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to outside WRs. This includes a monster performance just last week from Marquise Brown who torched the Colts secondary for 9-125-2. Currently ranked outside the top 24 WRs on the week, Cooks can be started as a WR2 with confidence in week 6.
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: New York Giants
Matchup Upgrade: Robert Woods
All the cool nicknames for Robert Woods came back to life last week as Bobby Trees went off for 12-150 against the Seattle Seahawks. It was a tough go of it for the first month of the season as Woods failed to finish as a top 24 WR in any game weeks 1-4. The issues started early in the season as Woods was running less routes than Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. That quickly changed starting in week 3, but the production didn’t start finding it’s way over to Woods until week 4 when Woods found the end zone vs. the Cardinals. That’s when the squeaky wheel got some serious grease in week 5 as Woods doubled his per game average in targets by getting 14 in week 5.
This trend should continue heading into a week 6 matchup vs. the Giants. The Giants this season have allowed the 5th most points out wide. This includes solid performance from Terry McLaurin (11-107-1), CeeDee Lamb (4-84-1) and Amari Cooper (3-60-1). Currently ranked as the WR23 on the week, Woods should be in all lineups in week 6.
Team: New York Giants
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
Matchup Upgrade: Kadarius Toney
Kadarius Toney quickly went from what the hell are the Giants doing to the next Odell Beckham in New York. After being buried behind Darius Slayton, Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard, Toney has shined when given his opportunities. In each of the past two games Toney has caught at least 6 passes including a ridiculous 10-189 line vs. Dallas in week 5. Toney has also shown his positional flexibility as he played on the inside in week 4 then quickly moved out wide vs. Dallas in week 5. This should help keep Toney stay on the field as Shepard should return to his slot role this week.
Moving outside is great for Toney’s fantasy outlook in week 6 as he should avoid Rams top CB Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey has manned the middle for most of the season and with other top CB Darious Williams out for this game, Toney could be in line for a big performance. Only started in 21% of leagues, Toney makes for a solid WR3/flex in week 6.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Matchup Downgrade: Courtland Sutton
With Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler out, the Broncos are starved for playmakers at the WR position. The first place to look is Courtland Sutton. Sutton so far has been up and down in his new role as the WR1. This includes 2 games over 20 points in .5 PPR and 2 games under 7 points. In week 5, Sutton had one of his better games vs. the Steelers securing 7-120-1. This big performance will lead a lot of fantasy managers to immediately plug him in for week 6.
This week’s opponent the Las Vegas Raiders are going through a lot of turmoil with the firing of Jon Gruden. However, so far this season no team has allowed less fantasy points to out wide WRs then the Raiders. This is spear headed by top CB Casey Hayward who looks to have returned to his shut down form in 2021. Currently ranked inside the top 20 for WRs on the week, Sutton is best viewed as a WR3/flex in week 6.
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: New England Patriots
Matchup Downgrade: Ceedee Lamb
A lot of people had CeeDee Lamb primed for a breakout in 2021. Even though Lamb has been solid for fantasy this season, he hasn’t truly broken out. Currently sits as the WR23 in .5 PPR and has only 2 top 24 WR performances to his name so far. We should point out that due to the injury of Michael Gallup, Lamb has played an entirely different role in 2021. In 2020, Lamb played 93% of his snaps in the slot. Meanwhile in 2021 that number has fallen to under 20% since week 2. This has led to Lamb only producing 1 top 24 WR performance since his move to the outside.
This week the Cowboys take on the Patriots who have surrendered the 4th fewest points out wide and the 6th fewest YAC per completion this season. This is key for Lamb as he generates 45% of his yardage so far in 2021 after the catch. Lamb is a stud and is still on the WR3/flex map this week, but currently ranked as the WR16 overall we’d pivot from him in DFS.
Team: Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Matchup Downgrade: A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown seemed poised to take the next step in 2021. Early on it looks like injuries have slowed that process down dramatically. Brown recently stated he will most likely be on a limited until week 10. Don’t get us wrong 75% of A.J. Brown is still better than 90% of the NFL WRs, but it’s alarming none the less. Last week in his return vs. the Jaguars Brown didn’t seem limited as he ran a route on 24 of 26 Ryan Tannehill drop-backs. However, only generated 3-38 against average Jaguars secondary.
This week things get even tougher for Brown as the Titans face the Buffalo Bills. The Bills this season have allowed the 4th fewest points out wide this year. This includes shutting down Tyreek Hill (7-63), Brandin Cooks (5-47) and Terry McLaurin (4-62) so far in 2021. Currently ranked as the WR24 on the week, Brown should see enough volume to return low-end WR3 numbers. Still, we recommend looking at other options in week 6.
Top 10 Rest Of Season
Out Wide Schedules
| Rank | Team Offense | ROS Wide PPG Allowed |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 22.2 |
| 2 | LV | 22.1 |
| 3 | CAR | 21.8 |
| 4 | DAL | 21.6 |
| 5 | NO | 21.6 |
| 6 | WSH | 20.9 |
| 7 | SEA | 20.7 |
| 8 | CHI | 20.6 |
| 9 | KC | 20.4 |
| 10 | ATL | 20.3 |
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
