Defense Slot vs. Wide Analysis
Key Out Wide Matchups Week 7
The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 7.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide to WRs this season.
| Team | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG* | Wide% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 7.8 | 24 | 34.2 | 70% |
| WAS | 13.5 | 23.3 | 43.8 | 53% |
| TB | 9.1 | 22.4 | 36.7 | 61% |
| IND | 10.7 | 21.4 | 34.1 | 63% |
| ARI | 9.6 | 21.2 | 33.4 | 64% |
| DEN | 10.1 | 19.7 | 30.3 | 65% |
| NO | 11.2 | 19.6 | 32.7 | 60% |
| CAR | 8.3 | 19.3 | 29.1 | 66% |
| DET | 7 | 19.2 | 27.6 | 69% |
| PIT | 14.6 | 19.1 | 32.8 | 58% |
| GB | 7.3 | 18.6 | 26.8 | 70% |
| MIA | 15.5 | 18.5 | 36.6 | 51% |
| JAC | 10.7 | 18.5 | 30.6 | 60% |
| TEN | 20.1 | 18.5 | 42.3 | 44% |
| ATL | 10.6 | 17.7 | 32 | 55% |
| CLE | 14.5 | 17.5 | 34.6 | 50% |
| CIN | 10.9 | 16.9 | 29.1 | 58% |
| LAR | 10.8 | 16.6 | 31.3 | 53% |
| SEA | 14.4 | 16.5 | 33.4 | 49% |
| KC | 7.6 | 16.5 | 28 | 59% |
| NE | 12.9 | 16.5 | 30.8 | 53% |
| NYG | 12.1 | 16.4 | 33.8 | 49% |
| HOU | 8.2 | 15.3 | 25.4 | 60% |
| MIN | 12.2 | 15.2 | 30.2 | 50% |
| SF | 12.2 | 14.6 | 30.6 | 48% |
| CHI | 14.9 | 13.9 | 32.1 | 43% |
| LV | 8.1 | 13.3 | 23.7 | 56% |
| PHI | 10 | 12.2 | 25.9 | 47% |
| BAL | 11.1 | 12.1 | 24.8 | 49% |
| NYJ | 9 | 10.3 | 24 | 43% |
| BUF | 8.4 | 10.1 | 21.5 | 47% |
| LAC | 5.9 | 10.1 | 20.3 | 50% |
| NFL AVG | 10.9 | 17 | 30.7 | 55% |
*Total includes screen passes
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR in 2021
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR in 2021
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR in 2021
% Wide – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed from out wide in 2021
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Houston Texans
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Matchup Upgrade: Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks has survived the Davis Mills experiment so far in 2021. The great thing about the situation it has become very predictable for fantasy managers. Start Cooks in good matchups and sit him in bad. In the 5 games with Mills, Cooks has 3 good games and 2 bad. The 3 good games came against the Colts (4th), Panthers (8th) and Browns (16th) in fantasy points allowed on the outside. While his bad games were vs. the Patriots (20th) and Bills (31st). There is an outside chance that Tyrod Taylor comes back, but if they stick with the rookie, we might have to view Cooks as a matchup dependent WR2/3.
This week the Texans take on the Cardinals who allow the 5th most points on the outside. This includes allowing a TD to 8 different WRs on the year. With all the byes this week, Cooks is a lock in season-long leagues. However, we suggest getting some exposure to Cooks in your DFS lineups this week.
Team: Chicago Bears
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup Upgrade: Darnell Mooney
It is definitely Halloween season as the Bears passing offense has been downright scary. The Chicago offense has seen the second lowest drop-backs per game on the year which has resulted in very little production. Currently neither Darnell Mooney nor Allen Robinson is inside the top 40 WRs in PPR PPG. Since Justin Fields took over as the full-time starter in week 3, Mooney has out produced Robinson. Mooney leads the team in targets (23), receptions (14), yards (214) and has 1 score with Fields running the show.
This brings us to week 7 where the Bears WRs have their best matchup of the year. With Buccaneers top CB Carlton Davis out, the Buccaneers have allowed the third most points to outside WRs on the year. This includes big games to notable WRs Amari Cooper (13-139-2), Ceedee Lamb (7-104-1) and Calvin Ridley (7-63-1). Currently ranked as the WR30 in Fantasy Pros ECR, Mooney makes for a solid borderline WR2 in week 7.
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Matchup Upgrade: Deebo Samuel
Deebo Samuel has been living the high life while fellow 49ers WRs Brandon Aiyuk works his way out of the doghouse. Through week 6, Deebo has averaged just over 10 targets a game. This has made him a PPR dynamo as he currently sits as the WR3 in that format. Of course, he’s had two monster games of 30 plus points, but he hasn’t failed to hit double digits once this season. Better news for Samuel is it looks like Jimmy G will return as the 49ers starter in week 7. Samuel had his worst receiving output in week 5 with Trey Lance only securing 3-58 saving his day with a rushing TD.
In week 7, the 49ers take on the Colts. The Colts this season have been gashed by outside WRs. Marquise Brown (9-125-2), Tyler Lockett (4-100-2) and Brandin Cooks (9-89) had big days vs. this Indy secondary. With Jimmy G back and until George Kittle returns, Deebo is an auto-start in season-long leagues.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Matchup Downgrade: Tee Higgins
The Bengals passing attack has been disappointing outside of Ja’Marr Chase through week 6. The main reason for this is the lack of pass volume. The Bengals this season have drop-back to pass just under 33 times per game. That is the 3rd lowest mark in the league. Some of this has to do with game flow as the Steelers, Bears and Lions games didn’t call for much volume. However, even in games where pass volume should have been higher, the Bengals have only been over the league avg. 39 drop-backs once all year. This has resulted in both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd canceling each other out behind Chase.
This week the matchups favors Boyd over Higgins as the Ravens has allowed the 4th fewest points out wide but the 13th most to the slot this season. Either way fantasy managers better hope Lamar Jackson can put up points to force the Bengals to throw. Because if this trend continues both Higgins and Boyd will be WR4s this week and beyond.
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Matchup Downgrade: Devonta Smith
This season has been very up and down for Devonta Smith. Smith has three games of 14 or more PPR fantasy points and 3 games under 6 PPR fantasy points. This has resulted in his WR50 ranking through the first 6 weeks of the NFL season. A lot of this has to do with the inconsistent play of the Jalen Hurts from a real-life perspective. However, the volume is there for Smith as he sits inside the top 35 in receiving yards and targets on the year.
This week’s matchup against the Raiders doesn’t seem tough, but it actually is for outside WRs. The Raiders have been a disaster this season off the field, but on it they have been handling business. This charge has been led by top outside CB Casey Hayward. Hayward and the Raiders secondary has allowed the 6th fewest points to outside WRs and 3rd fewest total points to WRs this season. This includes shutting down a red-hot Mike Williams (1-11). Currently ranked as the WR20 on the week, Smith should be viewed more as a low-end WR3 in week 7.
Team: New York Jets
Opponent: New England Patriots
Matchup Downgrade: Corey Davis
Speaking of up and down seasons, this brings us to Corey Davis. Davis this year has seen a very consistent target volume as he has seen 7 or more targets in 4 of 5 games. However, his production has been anything, but consistent. After a monster week 1 where he went for (5-97-2), Davis has only been over 10 PPR fantasy points once since. This came in a revenge game back in week 4 vs. his former team the Titans. Outside of that game, Davis has failed to hit that 10 PPG threshold even with some solid matchups against the Broncos (6th) and Falcons (15th) in fantasy points allowed to perimeter WRs.
This week the Jets take on the Patriots again. In the game earlier this season, Davis had his worst game of the year only securing 2-8 on 5 targets. The Patriots’ secondary isn’t as daunting as it once was, but it is still very solid on the outside. This season the Patriots have allowed 12th fewest points to the out wide WRs. Currently ranked as the WR27 this week on Fantasy Pros ECR, Davis is best viewed as a WR4 for week 7.
Top 10 Rest of Season Out Wide Schedules
| Team | ROS Wide |
|---|---|
| DAL | 18.6 |
| LV | 18.4 |
| ATL | 18.4 |
| CAR | 18.4 |
| WAS | 18.2 |
| SEA | 18.1 |
| BUF | 18.1 |
| ARI | 17.9 |
| TEN | 17.6 |
| CHI | 17.5 |
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders
