(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
We all know it is a passing league. In addition to having a great pass rush, having a secondary that will make the quarterback think once or twice about passing in their area seems important. A lockdown secondary is essential in this NFL.
2021 TEAM OPPONENT PASSING YARDS/G and PASSING ATTEMPTS/G
*Stats per teamrankings.com
|
NAME |
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED/G |
RANK |
|
NAME |
PASSING ATTEMPTS/G |
RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Buffalo |
176.7 |
1 |
|
Chicago |
28.1 |
1 |
|
Chicago |
191.6 |
2 |
|
Carolina |
30.3 |
2 |
|
Carolina |
192.1 |
3 |
|
New England Patriots |
31.3 |
3 |
|
New England Patriots |
193.8 |
4 |
|
Jacksonville |
31.9 |
4 |
|
Cleveland |
202.3 |
5 |
|
Detroit |
32.0 |
5 |
|
Green Bay Packers |
212.8 |
6 |
|
Houston |
32.1 |
6 |
|
San Francisco |
213.1 |
7 |
|
Arizona |
32.2 |
7 |
|
Denver |
214.8 |
8 |
|
Buffalo |
32.2 |
8 |
|
Arizona |
215.6 |
9 |
|
Los Angeles Chargers |
32.9 |
9 |
|
Los Angeles Chargers |
221.2 |
10 |
|
Denver |
33.1 |
10 |
|
Philadelphia |
222.2 |
11 |
|
San Francisco |
33.2 |
11 |
|
Las Vegas |
223.0 |
12 |
|
Pittsburgh |
33.5 |
12 |
|
Pittsburgh |
223.8 |
13 |
|
Cleveland |
33.9 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Baltimore |
278.9 |
32nd |
|
Tampa Bay |
40.1 |
32nd |
|
Seattle |
265.5 |
31st |
|
Seattle |
38.7 |
31st |
|
New York Jets |
259.4 |
30th |
|
Cincinnati |
37.3 |
30th |
|
Washington |
254.9 |
29th |
|
Los Angeles Rams |
37.0 |
29th |
|
Minnesota |
252.9 |
28th |
|
Tennessee |
36.9 |
28th |
Before we get analytical, let’s look at one more table ( PS, I love tables).
2021 DEFENSES WHO GAVE AWAY MOST FANTASY POINTS TO WR
*Per Pro Football Reference
|
TEAM |
AVG FANTASY POINTS PER GAME |
AVG DK POINTS PER GAME |
AVG FD POINTS PER GAME |
TARGETS ALLOWED |
RECEPTIONS ALLOWED |
TOTAL YARDS ALLOWED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnesota Vikings |
27.7 |
44.9 |
35.4 |
385 |
251 |
3280 |
|
Tennessee Titans |
26.5 |
41.9 |
33.8 |
390 |
248 |
3210 |
|
Baltimore Ravens |
25.9 |
39.7 |
32.1 |
350 |
214 |
3119 |
|
Arizona Cardinals |
25.3 |
38.7 |
31.8 |
342 |
216 |
2576 |
|
Washington |
24.0 |
37.8 |
30.7 |
339 |
228 |
2926 |
|
Atlanta Falcons |
24.0 |
37.8 |
30.7 |
345 |
229 |
2682 |
|
Chicago Bers |
23.7 |
35.7 |
29.1 |
281 |
184 |
2578 |
|
Houston Texans |
23.6 |
37.0 |
29.8 |
327 |
210 |
2877 |
|
Dallas Cowboys |
23.5 |
36.6 |
29.4 |
356 |
200 |
2870 |
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
23.5 |
38.1 |
30.1 |
311 |
225 |
2701 |
|
Green Bay Packers |
23.1 |
35.9 |
29.0 |
347 |
200 |
2566 |
|
Indianapolis Colts |
23.0 |
36.6 |
29.0 |
337 |
210 |
2499 |
|
Los Angeles Rams |
23.0 |
38.4 |
30.0 |
366 |
240 |
2950 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Buffalo Bills |
13.7 |
25.1 |
19.1 |
320 |
185 |
1925 |
|
Philadelphia Eagles |
17.7 |
29.2 |
23.2 |
287 |
186 |
2222 |
|
Los Angeles Chargers |
17.8 |
30.4 |
23.6 |
304 |
197 |
2359 |
|
New England Patriots |
18.4 |
29.5 |
23.6 |
313 |
179 |
2171 |
|
Las Vegas Raiders |
18.6 |
31.7 |
24.8 |
319 |
209 |
2334 |
WHAT I NOTICED…DUH!
For all of us playing DFS, the whopping difference in average points to the wide receiver position…is astronomical! So huge!! Just saying.
AND NOW FOR THE BREAKDOWN…OR DECIPHERING WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
The Buffalo Bills
- In 2021 they were not only the best team against opponent passing yards per game, but they also gave up the least amount of fantasy points to the wide receiver position. This is while giving up 32.2 average targets a game (ranked 8th).
- All everything cornerback Tre’Davious White missed six games last year, and the Bills still finished the season, allowing only a 71.1 passer rating (lowest in the NFL).
- Buffalo plays the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 (Thursday Night Game). The Bills gave up an average of 13.7 fantasy points per game to wide receiver, while the Rams gave up 10 fantasy points more (23.0) to the position.
The Chicago Bears
- The Bears ranked second in passing yards allowed (191.6) and first in passing attempts allowed (28.1).
- PFF’s 2022 secondary rankings they are in Tier5 “Too Much Uncertainty” and ranked 30th in lineups secondary rankings.
- The Bears are under new coaching: head coach Matt Eberflus (disregard my input error last article, my bad) and defensive coordinator Alan Williams. The new coaching regime comes with a new defensive scheme. Also, the Bears will be switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and Cover-2.
- The Bears have added CB Kyler Gordon, SS Jaquan Brisker, and CB Tavon Young; they lost CB Artie Burns
- The Bears play the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Last season the Bears gave up an average of 23.7 fantasy points per game to the position while the 49ers gave up an average of 22.7.
The Carolina Panthers
- The Panthers ranked third in passing yards allowed (192.1) and second in passing attempts allowed (30.3).
- The Panthers allowed the 11th highest team passer rating and gave up an average of 20.4 fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
- The Panthers play the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. The Browns also averaged 20.4
The New England Patriots
- The Patriots’ fourth ranking in opponents passing yards per game (193.8) and third in passing attempts per game (31.3) could be in jeopardy with the loss of CB JC Jackson, who was PFF’s third graded cornerback of 2021.
- To compensate, the Patriots’ added an explosion of bodies in the secondary: CB Malcolm Butler, CB Terrance Mitchell, S Jabrill Peppers, CB Marcus Jones, and CB Jack Jones
- Last season the Patriots gave up the second-fewest fantasy points to the WR position (18.6). Week 1 will be tested against Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins gave up an average of 21.3 fantasy points per game to the WR position.
The Cleveland Browns
- The Browns allowed the 13th most passing attempts per game (33.9) while only giving up the fifth most passing yards per game (202.3).
- Pro Football Focus has the Browns’ secondary ranked as the third best secondary coming into the 2022 season. The secondary was ranked first in PFFs team coverage metric in the 2021 season.
- Last season quarterbacks throwing against the outside could only muster a 71.8 passing rating against the Browns outside corners.
- The Browns gave up an average of 20.4 fantasy points per game last season. In week 1, the Carolina Panthers also gave up an average of 20.4 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.
TELL ME SOMETHING GOOD…
The Minnesota Vikings
- The Vikings’ secondary had multiple injuries last season. Nevertheless, they ranked 28th in passing yards allowed (252.9) and gave up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (27.7).
- The defense gave up the third most yards on the outside.
- The secondary lost S Xavier Woods and acquired S Lewis Cine and CB Chandon Sullivan.
- The Vikings start the season against the Green Bay Packers. The early line for the game is 49 o/u with the Packers’ 2.5-point favorite. Last season the Packers allowed an average of 23.1 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.
Washington
- Speaking of injuries, Washington lost Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young and defensive end Montez Sweat last season on the front seven, to add to a disappointing season.
- Washington allowed the fourth most passing yards (254.9) per game and the fifth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (24.0).
- Although they ranked 27th in PFF’s team coverage grades, CB Kendall Fuller was tied for second in the league with 14 pass breakups.
- Week1 Washington plays the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars gave up the 10th most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (23.5).
The New York Jets
- Last season the Jets were bottom three in pass coverage and allowed an average of 259.4 passing yards per game (30th ranked).
- The Jets could easily be the most improved secondary this season with the additions: CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB DJ Reed, and S Jordan Whitehead. Last season Reed allowed the seventh-lowest passer rating.
- Week1, the Jets play the Baltimore Ravens. While the Jets were giving up passing yards, they only yielded 22.0 average fantasy points per game. The Ravens, meanwhile, gave up the third most fantasy points on average to the wide receiver position (25.9).
The Seattle Seahawks
- While the Seahawks gave up the second most passing yards per game (265.5), they only allowed the 20.3 average fantasy points to the wide receiver position (sixth fewest).
- This preseason the secondary is ranked 30th per PFF and 32nd per lineups.com.
- Week1 matchup to exploit. The Seahawks play Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The Broncos allowed an average of 20.7 fantasy points per game last season.
The Baltimore Ravens
- The Ravens’ injury-filled season led to the most passing yards allowed per game (278.9) and their 28th ranking in PFF coverage grades.
- This season the Ravens will begin with some key departures and key additions to the secondary:
Departures: CB Jimmy Smith, CB Anthony Averett, CB Tavon Young, and S Deshon Elliott
Additions: S Marcus Williams, S Kyle Hamilton, and S Kyle Fuller
- It might be best to exploit the secondary early before the new and old begin to jell. PFF has this secondary ranked as the number one secondary coming into 2022, with the “highest-end elite potential.” com has them ranked as the second-best secondary coming into this season.
TIME IS ON MY SIDE
Weaknesses should be exploited early and often before the secondaries get comfortable with their assignments and the new players.
Of course, we will be watching training camps and pre-season to see exactly how things are playing out, but time is on our side.
Thank you, teamrankings.com, Razzball.com, and profootballreference.com, for your stats.
