Each week I’ll be breaking down a dynasty fantasy football rookie profile. This week I selected one of the hottest wide receivers, Quentin Johnston. Johnston was selected in the first round, pick 21 to the Los Angeles Chargers. That’s easily a fun pairing to be excited about. Let’s dig into his past production to understand how his early career outlook will project.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile | Quentin Johnston
College Production
Johnston hails from Temple, Texas, and was a top 100 overall player coming into college from high school. He and fellow teammate Zach Evans were the second-highest recruits to sign with TCU in 2020. Quentin played in nine games as a true freshman and led TCU in both yards and receptions. In his sophomore year, he saw an increase in all major categories, including receptions, yards, target share, catch rate, and touchdowns.
His final junior year at TCU was easily his best. Concluding the 2022 season with 13 games played, 60 receptions, 1,069 yards, 21.2% target share, 62.5% catch rate, and six touchdowns, per PlayerProfiler. Johnston’s 2022 campaign helped lead TCU to a national championship appearance and earned him the honor of being a Biletnikoff semi-finalist.
Strengths
Quentin is a 6-foot-4, 215-pound traits-specific, high-upside prospect in this 2023 class composed mainly of sub-6-foot receivers. His greatest attributes are his size, speed, and burst combination. Now, add his infamous “B” button spin move upon catching a ball, and boom, you get a yards after the catch (YAC) monster. Johnston sets up the reverse spin move incredibly well, executes, and has the burst to excel at the next level of the field. His reverse spin, yards after the catch, is his signature move.
He possesses elite moves and burst for his size, causing the first man to miss a lot. Other athletic traits that pop on film with QJ are lateral twitch, agility, strong start-stop ability, and top-end game-breaking speed. He has the top-end speed to be a formidable playmaker downfield for years. Johnston also boasts quietly substantial release packages off the line of scrimmage and is underrated in his ability to separate.
Quentin is a big play machine, his size and speed combo present significant mismatches for smaller defensive backs. His 77-yard catch and run touchdown in the 2022 game versus Michigan personifies the essence of his play style. Johnston also displays great spatial awareness in zone assignments and has an excellent idea for soft spots in zones.
Weaknesses
If you watch a small amount of film on Quentin, it’s quickly apparent that one of his biggest struggles is that he does not play to his size. While watching, I exclaimed, “Man, play like you’re 6-foot-4!” Further explanation of this is that he is awful at boxing out the catch window, not super physical in routes, and is super soft in contested catch situations. I need to see him “win” the hand fights, box his man out in the end zone, and just high-point the ball.
Johnston’s contested catch rate was an abysmal 34% last year. Most of this is because he is not a natural hands catcher and relies on bringing the ball to his body far too often. His lack of hands and technique turn what could be a monumental catch radius into an absolute disadvantage. Johnston also struggles to separate on routes requiring more defensive back manipulation techniques.
Ball tracking, drops, and winning those 50/50 balls are also areas I would love to see a vast improvement in his rookie year. His route tree participation at TCU was minimal: over 60% of his targets came from Go routes, Crossers, and Posts alone. This limited route tree could be an indictment of how he can disappear from games at times.
Team Ecosystem
Johnston lands in one of the NFL’s more innovative and exciting offenses. The Chargers’ addition of Kellan Moore as offensive coordinator certainly piques my interest, far more than the past Joe Lombardi-called offense. Across the last four seasons, The Cowboys offense under Moore ranked number two in the NFL in total offense (391 yards per game) and scoring (27.7 points per game). Ourlads.com has Quentin Johnston listed as the team’s number three starting wide receiver.
He will be playing behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but these two guys are often battling injuries and getting up there in age. Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton may mix in some snaps on specific packages, but I do not see them legitimately threatening Johnston’s initial playing time.
Prospect Projection
Johnston certainly has a path to substantial playing time this rookie year. He will be tied to Justin Herbert for the next few years and Moore as offensive coordinator for at least a few years. In his rookie year, Johnston’s upside is through the roof; his floor can be low yet stable. I am concerned about his inconsistency in dropped passes, playing to his size, and expanding his route tree.
He displays many traits of an “Alpha” receiver but is missing some polish and technique to come in year one and be an alpha immediately. Playing and learning from skilled veterans like Allen and Williams that Quentin will take his game to the next level and be that WR1 within year two.
QJ went as a late first-round selection in 2023 rookie drafts. His value is currently hovering around the neighborhood of James Cook, Amari Cooper, Pat Freiermuth, and Devon Achane. Give me the shot on the upside in an up-and-comer WR1 Quentin Johnston for the Chargers offense all day long out of this group of players.
