There are always debates on which players from Team “X” should you have on your squad. Should you pick this running back over another? Which wide receiver is going to outperform these ones that are in a particular tier group? As common as this is, however, it is a discussion that is less frequently about players that are on the same team.
This article will be the first where I break down dynasty players in this kind of situation to help you decide how to approach putting them on your team. To kick things off, we will discuss the Jacksonville Jaguars’ wide receivers, Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk.
The Return of Ridley
It has been a long time coming and fans are excited about the return of Calvin Ridley to the NFL. With a lingering injury that held him back to start the 2021 season, Ridley stepped away from the game to take some time to heal, both physically and mentally. Then, before the start of the 2022 season, the NFL community was shocked when Ridley was suspended for the year after he was caught gambling on multiple NFL games.
Ridley talked about the experience in his “A Letter to the Game” which he wrote to explain his point of view of everything that had happened to him. Now, a year and a half since his last game, Ridley is ready to suit up for a new team.
Before these setbacks, Ridley was amazing in the football world putting up WR1 numbers in 2020. This was with sharing the field with one of the best receivers to step on the field, Julio Jones, as well. Granted Julio was injured off and on throughout the season, but Ridley was still averaging 17.6 PPG in the PPR format.
In fact, he only dropped below double-digit points in three games that season. Plus, Ridley had his best game while Julio matched him with nine receptions on 12 targets in Week 1 against Seattle. In other words, Ridley had arrived in 2020 and everyone was ready for him to continue to be a top contributor to fantasy football teams.
Ridley’s dynasty outlook now brings him to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he will attempt to reprise his role as a top receiver for their star quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. This will require Ridley to beat out a couple of people for targets, but I fully expect him to be able to overcome the likes of Zay Jones.
Ridley will have his chance to put up big numbers in Doug Pederson’s offense. This is an offense that has never truly had an X-type receiver that can play outside the way that Ridley has shown he is capable of playing. It makes for a tantalizing expectation that Ridley will become the WR1 that he showed he could be in 2020.
Christian Kirk’s Case
While Ridley will be finding his place on the team for the first time, Christian Kirk has already had a great first year with the team. After several middle-of-the-road years with Arizona, Kirk and the Jaguars surprised everyone when they offered him a four-year deal that has a max value of $84 million. The Jaguars were taking a risk and paying Kirk what they thought he was worth, which was an area of some consternation for fans. Little did they know that Jacksonville’s risk would pay off almost immediately.
In his first year with the Jags, Kirk put up solid numbers that had him finishing as WR11 in dynasty. Over the first eight games of the season in 2022, which was arguably the toughest part of the schedule for him, he managed to average a decent 13.5 PPG in PPR. After that, he improved his overall average to 14.2 PPG, a fair number given he only scored eight total touchdowns.
This means that a majority of his points came in yards and receptions. Kirk averaged 7.8 targets per game with a 23.2% target share and averaged 65 yards a game, which are decent numbers that could be expected from a WR2 on your team.
Kirk’s dynasty value should maintain with him having the same role in Jacksonville and continue to be one of Lawrence’s top targets. This is because whereas Ridley will be competing for work on the outside with Jones and company, Kirk has a niche as the slot receiver where he worked out of 52% of the time, according to Player Profiler.
In contrast, Ridley only worked out of the slot 8.1%, so there should not be any competition between them for targets there. Plus, Kirk has shown he can play the outside, as well. That in tandem with his contract gives the expectation that he won’t be losing any targets any time soon, regardless of Ridley’s play. If anything, having Ridley should help open things up more for Kirk underneath.
Who to Choose?
It can seem like both options are decent ones and in honesty, they are better than most I would take at their similar values. Speaking of value, however, at the writing of this article Ridley has a higher ADP than Kirk does, at 67 to 93 respectively, so there is a discrepancy there. Plus, you must take age into account. While Ridley should have a few good years left in him, he will be turning 29 in December, which is very close to that 30-year mark you want to start avoiding with almost every player.
Kirk, on the other hand, is two years younger than Ridley. Add in the fact that Ridley hasn’t played in almost two years, which is concerning as we don’t really know what we will be getting in terms of his play. Put that all together and I’m willing to put my chips in on Christian Kirk over Calvin Ridley.
Both players bring value to their team and in terms of strictly football and it will be exciting to see how their offense improves with another year in Pederson’s playbook. If Calvin Ridley can be three-quarters of the player that everyone is expecting him to be, he’s going to be an exceptional weapon for Lawrence. If not, they already know they can make things work with Christian Kirk and company. Either way, things are only looking up for Jacksonville, which means things are looking good for dynasty players.
