[brid autoplay=”true” video=”1380460″ player=”10951″ title=”2013 Fantasy Football Tight Ends” duration=”160″ description=”0:23 Darren Waller 0:56 Cole Kmet 1:45 Kyle Pitts” uploaddate=”2023-08-13″ thumbnailurl=”https://cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/9233/snapshot/1380460_th_64d83e81af895_1691893377.jpg” image=”https://cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/9233/snapshot/1380460_sd_64d83e81af895_1691893377.jpg” contenturl=”https://cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/9233/sd/1380460.mp4″ width=”480″ height=”270″]
About a month ago, at the time fantasy football crazy people started jonesing for best ball drafts, I created my first of four ADP-driven draft articles. Now that we have moved a month plus into draft season and are headed quickly toward kickoff of the 2023 season, I want to share how ADP has changed over that time. Below, I will provide the original names landed from the 4th slot and the names that now appear. You will see some names rising and falling…some curious and some obvious. The original article used ADP data from July 17th, 2023. What you see below is almost one full month into draft season using August 13th, 2023 data.
Scoring for this mock will be relatively standard with a 12-team league consisting of 1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX (plus five bench players) and I will do the smart thing and avoid K and DST as none of you really care about those during this exercise and we will certainly cover those two positions during our Sunday morning Start or Sit podcast which will be back during the season.
I will assume four points per TD pass and six points for all other TDs. One point per 20 points passing and one point per 10 yards rushing/receiving. I will also use full PPR for this draft. I will ignore bye weeks for this draft. During our Sunday morning podcast, we will address questions for all kinds of leagues scoring systems to include dynasty, Superflex, etc., so tune in and fire off some questions. Alas, that is still a couple of months away, but we are all getting excited about getting the band back together as @BobbyLaMarco, @SkyGuasco, @Derek_Favret and myself, @Stiles08 will do our best to help you win each week.
Round 1, Pick 1.04 – Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC (original pick = Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR): It is not a shock to see Ekeler up at 1.04 as he should have been there from the jump. The part of this equation that intrigues me more is Kupp moved down three slots. Some of this undoubtedly has to do with the tweak Kupp experienced in camp. For me, I happily take Ekeler at 4 or Kupp at 7. In fact, I just received my draft order for one of my home leagues and at the 1.08 spot I would love to see Kupp slip down to me. The days of Ekeler being available in the middle of Round 1 seem unlikely to repeat, but I am happy to grab him there as well. He is not a steal at 4 but certainly is at 7+. Two other names jumping Kupp in the update are Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
Round 2, Pick 2.09 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA (original pick = Derrick Henry, RB, TEN): With Derek Henry moving from 21 overall to 17 overall, we are now able to land Jaylen Waddle in the second round. There have been questions about Henry’s age and ability to continue to be a true RB1 alpha. In fact, our own Bobby LaMarco has posed this question in a separate article. I would love to see Henry fall to #21, but with him shimmying up the board, I am happy to land Waddle. I see Waddle as the best WR2 in the league and am ecstatic to place him as my team’s fantasy WR1 especially after landing Ekeler in the first round. After two rounds, I love the balance just as I did with our original draft.
Round 3, Pick 3.04 – Mark Andrews, TE, BAL (original pick = D.K. Metcalf, WR, SEA): This is my first pivot, and it certainly did not take long. The pick, if using ADP alone, should be Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE, just as it was in the first draft, but after watching the topflight TE’s fly off the board, I prefer to select Andrews here. Andrews is an absolute steal in Round 3 and walking away with RB1, WR1, and TE1 after three rounds is ideal. Also, I think I can get a similar back to Stevenson later and am confident I can make up ground at the WR position even though I am allowing my original selection of D.K. Metcalf to slip here. Since I have been paying attention to middle round WR names, this is a good opportunity for me to test that strategy. Full transparency here…when I did my initial draft I looked ahead and saw I could obtain Kenneth Walker III in Round 4 so I passed on Stevenson. I am not looking forward this time and we shall see what happens in the next round.
Round 4, Pick 4.09 – Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN (original pick = Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA): So, my analysis proved me correct. I can land a true WR1 in Jeudy here right on queue. I could have reached for KWIII here, but since the original draft he has not played a down nor practiced so his draft slot is falling. In the last month, he has dropped a full five spots. For someone, KWIII will probably be a steal near the end of Round 4, but that owner will need to take a chance on the second year RBs health. For now, I am good with having two stud WRs on the roster and think Jeudy will be a better fantasy option in 2023 bringing health and a second year with Russell Wilson to the field.
Round 5, Pick 5.04 – Christian Watson, WR, GB (original pick = Justin Fields, QB, CHI): Karma! This is karma for a Packers fan that had to live with the prior Justin Fields pick. I caught a lot of grief from the other @Razzball writers considering my favorite hashtag is #neverfields. They loved to remind me that I hate Fields and would pass on him 99% of the time. Since I was technically on the clock while knocking out the original ADP draft, I had a professional (used loosely) responsibility to select Fields. Considering Fields has moved up the board almost a full round in the month since I completed that draft, I am good with someone else significantly overpaying for a guy that has not proven to be able to throw like an NFL QB. Sure, dude can run like the wind, but I am not burdened with him in this iteration. To make this an even better feel-good story (for me) is the ability to land a third stud WR and second true WR1 in Christian Watson. Coming into his second year, I look for Watson to blossom for the Packers. He has very little competition from the likes of Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, so I love Watson here. The major question mark is Jordan Love. Can he be the QB1 Matt LaFleur wants (needs) him to be? I am out on a limb stating if Love cannot be the guy, then both he and LaFleur will be looking for new jobs very soon.
Round 6, Pick 6.09 – Rachaad White, RB, TB (original pick = Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL): I can take a deep breath knowing that I waited five rounds after selecting Ekeler to get a second RB actually viable enough to call a fantasy RB2. In fact, the opportunity to grab White here solidifies my Round 3 pick of Mark Andrews. White no longer must split time with Fat Lenny and is the best option for the Bucs at RB. He can run between the tackles, outside the tackles, and has proven adept at catching the ball out of the backfield. With two checkdown QBs vying for the right to captain the ship in Tampa Bay, look for White to improve on his 2022 reception count (50) which equates to a profitable Round 6 pick while shoring up our backfield.
Round 7, Pick 7.04 – Marquise Brown, WR, ARI (original pick = George Pickens, WR, PIT): I think I prefer George Pickens over Hollywood Brown, but that is not where this ADP draft has the players ranked. I could have punted on Brown and selected Pickens to ‘get my guy’ but felt it disingenuous to move ahead four slots just to make myself feel better. I am not sold on what is happening in the desert right now and would probably skip Brown to land Pickens in all formats…except this exercise in true-ADP analysis. Do not mistake my words to mean I do not appreciate Hollywood as my WR 4 as much as I do not trust Kyler Murray in the first year in a new offense after he was unable to carry the water in the previous offense.
Round 8, Pick 8.09 – A.J. Dillon, RB, GB (original pick = Evan Engram, TE, JAX): The addition of Dillon here locks up the RB stable for me, albeit it by adding a second player from Green Bay. Each season I expect Dillon to take a step forward and, though he is a good football player, he just has not taken that next step. Maybe it was Aaron Rodgers? Maybe it is the LaFleur offensive scheme? I am not sure what it is and would love to see more two RB sets from the Packers allowing both Dillon and Aaron Jones to eat. With a third RB on the squad, we can look to add depth and a QB at some point.
Round 9, Pick 9.04 – Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN (original pick = Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL): Bateman has dropped 19 spots on the current ADP chart which appears to be the largest fall for any player I previously selected. The name at this spot is Quentin Johnston, but I am passing to nab my QB1 here. Cousins in the 9th Round as the 12th QB off the board feels like wonderful value to me. I prefer him over Tua (health), D. Watson (all kinds of questions surrounding this dude) and Dak (he is Dak after all, right?) and am pleased to get him here. I must hope he slips by one pick for me to grab him here. If he does not fall to me, I will be left considering Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and Geno Smith.
Round 10, Pick 10.09 – Jerick McKinnon, RB, KC (original pick = Skyy Moore, WR, KC): Looks like I will be swapping one Chiefs weapon for another. With Skyy moving up 10 draft slots, McKinnon falls to me providing a fourth RB which is a good thing. Look at McKinnon’s numbers in the passing game last season and click DRAFT NOW as quickly as possible for those PPR points again in 2023. For a player that could not really stick with an NFL squad, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes made this guy a household name…at least in fantasy football households.
Round 11, Pick 11.04 – Allen Lazard, WR, NYJ (original pick = Devon Achane, RB, MIA): Our previous name here, Achane, moved up four slots which means some other names have slipped. I am able to add former Packers WR, Allen Lazard as my 5th WR. Knowing how much Aaron Rodgers loves his guys, I think Lazard is a nice pickup this late. I have my expectations tempered as Lazard is coming off of his best season. I am confident he will slide into the WR2 role for the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS. The trade of Elijah Moore opens up more targets for Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. In the 11th round I am happy to add a true WR2 as my 5th overall WR.
Round 12, Pick 12.09 – Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT (original pick = Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR): At this point in the draft, there are a group of backup RBs available (Foreman, Singletary, K. Miller, Warren, Mostert). I will take a flier on Warren as I believe he has the best chance at regular touches and is the best true RB of the group listed above. If I wanted to reach a little (7 picks), I could scoop up D.J. Chark. Had I not already drafted five WRs, I would have seriously considered Chark here, but for this team I am good with Warren.
What do we think of this lineup? Are there any reaches you do not like? Is the roster construction one you can live with? Send your thoughts below and let’s have a discussion.
Thank you for coming back to read our stuff and be a part of the podcast by listening and commenting. We are here for you!
-Mitch-
