We’re continuing on with our analysis of the Experts Draftmaster 83 draft here at Razzball. I was involved in this little shindig which makes it more fun for me. If you like to do fun fantasy football things like I do, get in touch with Jim Day on Twitter (@Fantasytaz). He’s the go-to guy for the Draftmaster madness. Before we continue, you should probably read Part I of the Draftmaster 83 analysis first. Yeah, that’s a good idea. Glad I thought of it.
The particpants of the Experts Draftmaster 83 fantasy draft are:
- Scott Pashley (@ffspin) of www.ffspin.com
- Josh Moore (@circulargenius) of www.4for4.com
- John Paulsen (@FantasyShrink) of www.fantasyshrink.com
- Brian Quinlan (@BNQuinlan) of www.goaheadscore.com
- Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe) of www.profootballfocus.com
- Andy Behrens (@AndyBehrens) of Yahoo! Sports
- Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine) of www.profootballfocus.com
- Mike Clay (@PFF_MikeClay) of www.profootballfocus.com
- Jim Day (@Fantasytaz) of www.goaheadscore.com
- Chet Gresham (@Chetrazzball) of football.razzball.com
- Clint Chugg (@YHIHF) of www.yhihfantasyfootball.com
- Ryan Burns (@FtblSickness) of www.footballsickness.com
Most of the experts included the reason(s) why they selected who they did when they did on the Draftmaster 83 draft board. Check it out to get inside thoughts from the drafters as they made their picks.
Here are some of my thoughts and some analysis on each round of our draft. The Draftmaster drafts are PPR and best ball scoring. My picks are in bold.
- #49 – @FFSpin – Cedric Benson (CIN – RB)
- #50 – @circulargenius – Brandon Lloyd (DEN – WR)
- #51 – @FantasyShrink – JerMichael Finley (GB – TE)
- #52 – @BNQuinlan – Marshawn Lynch (SEA – RB)
- #53 – @JeffRadcliffe – Mark Ingram (NO – RB)
- #54 – @AndyBehrens – Dez Bryant (DAL – WR)
- #55 – @Bryan_Fontaine – Philip Rivers (SD – QB)
- #56 – @PFF_MikeClay – Dallas Clark (IND – TE)
- #57 – @Fantasytaz – Santonio Holmes (NYJ – WR)
- #58 – @Chetrazzball – Sidney Rice (MIN – WR)
- #59 – @YHIHF – Jason Witten (DAL – TE)
- #60 – @FtblSickness – Felix Jones (DAL – RB)
Dez Bryant falling this far in an experts draft says a lot. Bryant’s ADP is in the late 3rd/early 4th round range and he fell all the way to mid 5th round. When Romo was the QB, Bryant averaged 3.6 catches, 42.2 yards, and scored once in five games. Compare that to the 6.6 catches, 97.2 yards Miles Austin averaged (with 2 TDs) in those same five games and it’s clear who Romo prefers. Mid 5th round is a much better spot than late 3rd/early 4th round for Dez. When Santonio Holmes resigns with the Jets, he’ll be the clear cut #1 WR after Braylon Edwards presumably leaves. I like Holmes to outproduce his draft position this year. Also, if you want a solid TE on your fantasy team you better get one by round five.
My Jason Witten pick – JerMichael Finley and Dallas Clark went off the board earlier in the round, and after Witten the TE position becomes a bit of a crapshoot. Since I don’t like shooting crap, I figured I better land Witten before it’s too late. Witten finished 2010 scoring 6 TDs in the last five games, and Jason Garrett and Tony Romo both clearly trust him.
- #61 – @FtblSickness – Kenny Britt (TEN – WR)
- #62 – @YHIHF – Tony Romo (DAL – QB)
- #63 – @Chetrazzball – Matt Ryan (ATL- QB)
- #64 – @Fantasytaz – Ryan Williams (ARZ – RB)
- #65 – @PFF_MikeClay – Matt Schaub (HOU – QB)
- #66 – @Bryan_Fontaine – Percy Harvin (MIN – WR)
- #67 – @AndyBehrens – Vernon Davis (SF – TE)
- #68 – @JeffRatcliffe – Jimmy Graham (NO – TE)
- #69 – @BNQuinlan – Ben Roethlisberger (PIT – QB)
- #70 – @FantasyShrink – Joseph Addai (IND – RB)
- #71 – @circulargenius – Pierre Garcon (IND – WR)
- #72 – @FFSpin – Anquan Boldin (BAL – WR)
Quarterbacks are the story of this round. Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, and Josh Freeman all hold similar value in 2011, so it’s all a matter of who you prefer. All will be gone by the end of round six, generally speaking. With the lockout heading into July, I’m wary of taking rookies too high. Particularly rookie running backs in a crowded backfield on a bad team. Ryan Williams went a little too high for my taste. Arizona DOES have the softest schedule this year, but it may be mid season before we see Williams play. I think he’s better suited as a late 7th/early 8th round pick. As for Kenny Britt, well, I still see him as an asset for 2011 fantasy teams since I don’t think the NFL or the Tennessee Titans will be able to do much about his recent legal problems. For more of what I think of Kenny Britt’s fantasy value this year and beyond, check this out.
My Tony Romo pick – I figured @FtblSickness would pass on Romo with Peyton already on his roster, so I was planning on taking Romo with this pick all along. I love Romo’s value this year. You can’t draft him ahead of the Peyton Mannings, Philip Rivers, and Tom Bradys of the world, but he can produce numbers like those guys.
- #73 – @FFSpin – Ryan Grant (GB – RB)
- #74 – @circulargenius – Jordy Nelson (GB – WR)
- #75 – @FantasyShrink – Fred Jackson (BUF – RB)
- #76 – @BNQuinlan – Michael Crabtree (SF – WR)
- #77 – @JeffRadcliffe – Josh Freeman (TB – QB)
- #78 – @AndyBehrens – Matthew Stafford (DET – QB)
- #79 – @Bryan_Fontaine – Mike Williams (SEA – WR)
- #80 – @PFF_MikeClay – Mike Tolbert (SD – RB)
- #81 – @Fantasytaz – A.J. Green (CIN – WR)
- #82 – @Chetrazzball – Roy Helu (WAS – RB)
- #83 – @YHIHF – Mario Manningham (NYG – WR)
- #84 – @FtblSickness – Pierre Thomas (NO – RB)
Running backs this late in the draft are in committee situations, making the decision on whether or not to take them a difficult one. Well, except for Fred Jackson. Jackson is one of the best RB3/flex options in PPR leagues and he always seems to fall to the 7th round. Mike Tolbert could prove to be a bargain as well, but he won’t record 900+ yards and 11 TDs again. I think the Chargers want Ryan Mathews to be the workhorse. It sure looked that way late last season. Razzball’s main man Doc is showing a lot of faith in Roy Helu by taking him this high. I like Helu as well, but I like him more in the 9th or 10th round. Mike Shanahan RBs are the ultimate boom or bust. Josh Freeman should have went in round six, and Jordy Nelson could really shine as the #2 in Green Bay. Still plenty of value to be found in round seven.
My Mario Manningham pick – I had to get another WR. In this best ball scoring format I liked Manningham best of those available. I’m not thrilled with him as my WR2, but that’s the price I pay for taking three RBs with my first three picks. With Nicks commanding the defensive attention and Steve Smith still recovering from surgery, Manningham has a lot of potential. I’m sort of banking on that potential.
- #85 – @FtblSickness – Davone Bess (MIA – WR)
- #86 – @YHIHF – Eli Manning (NYG – QB)
- #87 – @Chetrazzball – James Starks (GB – RB)
- #88 – @Fantasytaz – Owen Daniels (HOU – TE)
- #89 – @PFF_MikeClay – Steve Smith (CAR – WR)
- #90 – @Bryan_Fontaine – Zach Miller (OAK – TE)
- #91 – @AndyBehrens – Julio Jones (ATL – WR)
- #92 – @JeffRatcliffe – Mike Thomas (JAX – WR)
- #93 – @BNQuinlan – Brandon Pettigrew (DET – TE)
- #94 – @FantasyShrink – Johnny Knox (CHI – WR)
- #95 – @circulargenius – Marcedes Lewis (JAX – TE)
- #96 – @FFSpin – Brandon Jacobs (NYG – RB)
There are still a few #1 wide receivers floating around out there at this point in the draft. Mike Thomas and Steve Smith are on weaker pass offenses, but they’re both still the #1 receiving options on their respective teams. I see Mike Thomas as a breakout candidate in 2011. He’ll be the #1 WR in Jacksonville with the Jags expected to let Mike Sims-Walker go. Thomas is just 5’8″ tall, but he has great hands and runs nice routes. Think Carolina’s Steve Smith with a little less explosiveness. Thomas is a great WR3 option and a solid pick in round eight. The starting tight ends are getting thin at this point with Owen Daniels, Zach Miller and Brandon Pettigrew pretty much being the last of the bunch. Kellen Winslow should be a starting fantasy TE too, but he’s currently being drafted much later as a back up. I think 91st overall is a little high for rookie WR Julio Jones who hasn’t even seen a playbook yet. Supposedly.
My Eli Manning pick – Romo may take a month to get back to playing speed after missing most of 2010, so I wanted a solid back up. Manning has a very soft first quarter schedule and is once again a great value in fantasy drafts. We love to hate Eli, but he’s still a top 12 fantasy quarterback with top 10 potential.
We’re half way through this Experts Draftmaster draft and things are starting to get interesting. The later rounds are the most important rounds of any fantasy draft. It’ll be intriguing to see who these experts took in the second half of the draft. We’ll take a look later in the week.
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