Food, football, family and friends. I hope everyone had a healthy, happy and safe Thanksgiving. I recently caught up with Razzball’s own Tehol Beddict and Doug Moore on Twitter about what they are thankful for in 2015.

Me: What are you thankful for this year Tehol? The new Concussion movie? Because the NFL isn’t thankful for that.

Tehol: My new job that has totally ruined my life in every way possible.

I’m pretty confident in that he isn’t talking about Razzball. However, if he is, I would lay off the comments. Just kidding, pepper the man with questions. I then quickly reached out to Doug.

Me: What are you thankful for this year?

Doug: In all seriousness? I’m thankful for my family, friends, my girlfriend, the job I have and my co-workers.

I have two issues with this statement. First, he thinks I’m kidding, and possibly a goofy guy? I’m very offended at this generalization. I am very serious. Example A. My second issue? Doug is way too nice and serious guy, and needs to realize that there are more important things in life than family and jobs.

He quickly realized.

Doug:  Oh, and for football and fantasy football as well.

Let’s review Week 11…

Week 11 Review

Fanduel user braybon took down Razzball’s Week 11 Fantasy Football League and took home $60. braybon used a very effective (and rarely used) 3-man stack of Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and Greg Olsen, totaling 62.24 points, and only took up $22,000 of his $60,000 salary cap, which averages out to 1 point per $353, which could be the difference maker. A very good strategy to imply when constructing lineups in GPP’s are to use cheap, low-owned, and efficient stacks. All 3 were fairly low-owned and every player ended up scoring at least 1 TD. Let’s look at some other plays of the week.

(Week 11 was a low-scoring, and frustrating week for users, and many players ended up with injuries when everything was said and done with. Both myself, Matt Hayes, and Jay did not cash, and would not like to talk about this week ever again.)

Any Raiders Players You Took – Very frustrating and weird. With such a poor Lions defense (which actually looked good against the Eagles on Turkey Day) it looked like Carr and Co. could have a field day. And they had the opposite. Poor day for the Chalk such as Derek Carr, and Michael Crabtree.

Mike Evans (14.3 pts, 16.4% Owned) – He did alright, catching a TD. However it was a real pisser because Jameis had 5 TD’s that went to 5 different receivers, and that rarely happens. I wanted Jameis to throw for 5 TD’s but for 2-3 to go to Evans.

Julio Jones (20.5 pts, 30.9% Owned) Vontae Davis who?

Cam Newton (31.44 pts, 9% Owned) – I won’t lie, I feel proud that I talked about him and he did great, becoming the Contrarian play of the week, and made the difference for a TON of people.

Enough already, let’s get to Week 12.

Week 12 Preview

With 6 teams playing on Turkey Day 2015, we only have a (somewhat?) short slate with 11 games instead of the usual 14. Shouldn’t make much difference this week, however.

Quarterbacks

Carson Palmer, ARI ($8,100) – Palmer has been incredible this year, averaging 25.6 points per game this year. According to Football Outsiders, Palmer ranks 2nd in the NFL in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, which pretty much measures how good a QB without being a specific system. The 49ers secondary was burned by Russell Wilson, and ranks 25th in the NFL against the pass. Plus, even though the Cardinals are on the road, they are 11-point favorites against a horrible Niners team.

Brian Hoyer, HOU ($7,100) – Simply put, any QB that faces the New Orleans Saints tends to do well, and a lot of the field will have Hoyer. However, I have a concern with Hoyer, and I might be the only (analyst?) person who might believe that he is a bust. Yes, finally, Rob Ryan is out the door, but that is bad news for DFS players, as the Saints D was the one to exploit week in and week out. But new ‘Nola DC Dennis Allen could have this defense turn a corner, just how Miami’s Dan Campbell had the Fins turn a corner. I would use Hoyer, but sparingly.

Marcus Mariota, TEN ($7,000) – After a 4 TD-game in Week 1 against Famous Jameis and Co., Mariota has dropped off, only averaging close to 18 points per game, which doesn’t get it done in DFS. However, Oakland isn’t good against the pass, ranking 26th in the NFL. Also, he has a healthy Dorial Green-Beckham, Kendall Wright is good to go, Delanie Walker is looking better than ever. Also, HC Mike Mularky has stated that he’ll start to let Mariota run the ball, which is comfy for him and you.

Running Backs

Giovani Bernard, CIN ($6,300) – Bernard has been up and down this season, having good days and bad ones, totaling 18.60 ppg, which doesn’t cut it for DFS. However, he is in a good situation to be in. Jeremy Hill isn’t instilling confidence in anyone, and Gio has taken advantage of it. Bernard is currently ranked 5th in the NFL in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, better than Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley, to name a few. Also, the STL Rush D is pretty average, ranking 17th in the NFL. Also, the Rams secondary is one of the best in the NFL, ranking 2nd in the NFL, so with a good pass D, look for Cincinnati to exploit the running game.

T.J. Yeldon, JAX ($6,500) – This is a week for the cheap and value backs. Yeldon falls into both categories, cheap and he has some extreme value to his name. Yeldon has been terrible this year, only averaging close to 9 points per game, and his salary has decreased by $-500 since the beginning of the year. This is perfect, as a low-producing, salary-decreaser with an excellent matchup is the perfect way to nail a GPP. The Jaguars are 4 point-home favorites against a San Diego team that gives up an average of 24.7 points per game, and made Chiefs HB Spencer Ware look like a superstar. Not that he isn’t, I’m sure he’s a nice guy.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones, ATL ($9,300) Vontae Davis who? Jones made Davis look like your Uncle during Thanksgiving football last week as he was torn up for 9 catches and 160 yards, although Davis did not give up a TD, but it didn’t matter. Now Jones should get Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes and the Minnesota secondary, giving up an average of 20.8 points per game to the WR position. Jones is pure chalk.

Rishard Matthews, MIA ($6,200) – SLEEPER OF THE WEEK. “Hey, remember when Zach was doing alright for himself at Razzball.com, and he really enjoyed himself, and was actually pretty decent at selecting top plays each week on Fanduel?”, asks you. “Yup”, replies a stranger. “Well he selected Rishard Matthews in Week 12, and it just kind of went downhill from there.” “Nope”, I interrupt, “Because Matthews ranks 11th in the NFL in total receptions this year. Football Outsiders ranks Matthews 4th in the NFL in DYAR, and 3rd in the NFL in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Also, the Jets secondary actually ranks 21st in the NFL against WR’s, and apart from Revis Island, Antonio Cromartie (who should cover Matthews) is not that good. Finally, the Dolphins should have to throw the ball to stay in the game.”, I state. “I like Matt Hayes better than you, he doesn’t have a sarcastic tone and better than you at Daily Fantasy, plus his Twitter account isn’t weird”, you respond. I do agree.

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI ($7,400) – A great stack with Carson Palmer, the Niners secondary is one of the worst in the NFL, ranking 28th in the NFL. Fitzgerald has been Mr. Consistent this year. He accounts for nearly 35% of his team’s total targets, and 50% of the games he has started in has resulted in either 100+ Rec. yds or a TD. But most importantly, the matchup is super tasty.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski, NE ($8,400) – Yes, I will address Rob Gronkowski. I have written about him every week, and I still do believe he should be the top play every week. Yes, he has averaged 10.4 points in his last 3 games, and that is tragic. However, the field will be off of him due to this regression, and that’s when you take advantage of this. The Broncos are average against the TE position, ranking 13th in the NFL. However, play him because he offers the upside no one else can.

Delanie Walker, TEN ($6,100) – If you still don’t want Gronk, that’s okay, because Walker is good too. Walker is cheap, with a good ceiling and a great matchup against the Raiders, who rank 29th in the NFL against Tight Ends. Walker is even a good stack with Marcus Mariota.

Kickers and D/ST’s-

Chandler Catanzaro, ARI ($4,700) – Super cheap? Check. Indoors or in a good kicking environment? Check. Heavy favorites in the game? Check.

Kansas City Chiefs ($4,500) – A great minimum-salary option. The Chiefs are 7 point home favorites against the struggling Buffalo Bills, a good situation for any defense to be in.

Alright kids, that’s my time. I’ll be back next week after Rishard Matthews goes nuts for 200 yards and 3 TD’s. Okay, maybe not 3. Maybe 2 or 1. Eh, who knows these days. I don’t. I just pretend like I do.

Go read a book.

 

 

You Can Follow Zachary Robinson on Twitter @ohuhave12.

  1. A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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    it’s nice to see somebody else around here uses football outsiders, i’m always seeing a lot of writers around here just flipping out things like “team X is the worst at TE’s” when really they’re 15th, or something else way off. A team’s schedule is hugely important and outsiders math brings that in. This is akin to the ignorance seen when a baseball writer uses 1 year of “park factors” or just counts the number of homers in a park from that one year and then makes comments like “this park X is called a hitters park but it isn’t anymore”. This last one is akin to hanging out for a week in ARI in the shade during a week where it’s cloudy and then claiming a “massive” weather shift is in effect, since ARI is much colder this “year”.

    • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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      @A Wesley Snipes Life: and SF is 30th against the pass, per outsiders, even stronger for palmer.

      • Zach

        Zach says:
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        @A Wesley Snipes Life: Exactly my point good sir. I write for you Mr. Life, I write for you.

        By the way, I think I have earned a Twitter follow, or at least a mention for my good work.

  2. A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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    uh, those same football outsiders have STL 3rd against rush.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

    that’s updated to include week 11. opp’s are important in these stats, something just counting up yards/pts doesn’t show. However, STL’s biggest receiver weakness is against pass catching RB, so Gio still has value there (they’re only 16th against RB receiving, from the 2nd table)

    • Zach

      Zach says:
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      @A Wesley Snipes Life: Yes, I do understand that St. Louis is ranked 3rd accoring to Football outsiders, however St. Louis can get burned against the run, and Gio can do it this week, at least in my opinion. Example A- Jeremy Langford rushed for 73 yards and a TD. But to reiterate on your point for pass catching HB’s, in that same game he caught 7 balls for 109 yards and a touch.

      You make good points though, but I still feel confident Gio can produce

      • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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        @Zach: 16th against for RB receiving yards isn’t an argument against Gio. Also, lately with all of STL’s injuries on D (ogletree, quinn, long some others on secondary) it’s quite likely most of their high ranking was from earlier in the year, when quinn actually played.

  3. Tim Mcveigh says:
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    BEDDICT IS GOD

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