Alright, we get it. Everyone is going to win this week because everyone’s lucky number is 13. Enough! Something very interesting happened Monday Night on DraftKings last week. Something that defines how Fantasy Football is such a fickle mistress. The setting? DraftKings’ $600k Blitz. Per RotoGrinders.com-
This one came down to the very last play. “GregieC03” was sitting pretty and looking as if he would lock up the six-figure payday if Cleveland could make the game-winning field goal. Instead, the Ravens blocked the kick and returned it for a TD which catapulted underjones from out of the top five into the lead by the slimmest (.20) of margins. “Underjones” would also take fourth place and win a live final seat to cap off a great weekend for him.
1. underjones 217.84, $100,000
2. GregieC03 217.64, $50,000
3. FitnessKING613 214.34, $25,000
4. underjones 212.4, $15,000
5. Josh677 211.5, $10,000
At this point you have to laugh and just settle for $50k. I know, what a settle.
Week 12 was a bad week for the chalk WR’s. Players such as Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Antonio Brown all scored below 10 points, which absolutely destroyed a ton of people’s tournament lineups, as D-Hop was owned by 52.9% owned in Fanduel’s Week 13 Sunday Million. Let’s review the rest of Week 12….
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Week 12 Review
We didn’t have a Fanduel contest last week, however user bigneo took down both of the biggest Fanduel GPP Contests, the NFL Sunday Million and the Sunday NFL Rush, winning a total of $300,000 between the two. On top of all that, he used the same lineup. What success. Let’s look at some of the difference-making plays he selected to take home $300k.
Doug Baldwin (35.5 pts, 0.9% Owned) – This was definitely the difference-maker for bigneo, as the stack with Russ paid off ($300k to be exact). But what was his reasoning? Well it was a plus-sized matchup (Steelers rank 29th against WR’s), in a game with a High Vegas Total. I’ll admit, this move won’t work every time, but it did this time.
Sammy Watkins (30.8 pts, 1.8% Owned) – Another low-owned WR that made the difference. The main reason why Watkins was a good play was due to the Coaching Staff of Orchard Park. Sexy Rexy talked all week about how they will try to get Watkins the ball, and they got him the ball, plain and simple. Also, Tyrod Taylor looked fantastic last week, which helps.
Odell Beckham Jr (24.7 pts, 30.5% Owned) – The only Chalk WR play was the one that did it, as ODB scored late to cement a good fantasy day, even though he got off to a slow start against the ‘Skins.
Well that was a very successful week for bigneo, so let’s get to Week 13. Oh, and before I forget, I do not count my sleeper of the week to be a “bust” (I selected Rishard Matthews). Matthews got hurt, so therefore I still win.
Remember, I am not including the plays that are considered “chalk”, such as Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, David Johnson, and Stephen Gostkowski. Remember, they are great cash game picks, but I am focusing more on the Tournament plays, like the ones featured in bigneo‘s lineup.
Week 13 Preview
Tom Brady ($9,400) – Contrary to popular belief, Brady will do fine without his main men. I grew up with the New England Patriots, and there is one thing I have learned over the years. That Tom Brady is always angry, and that Belichick doesn’t care about injuries (and Fantasy Football, for that matter). When Gronk went down in 2013 against the Cleveland Browns, Brady still put up close to 4,500 yards, with 25 TD’s, that primarily went to Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Julian Edelman. Also, the rage factor comes into play, after a tough loss against the Broncos. An angry Tom Brady is a great DFS Tom Brady. Finally, the NE-PHI game has the second-highest Vegas Total at 48 and a half total points, with the Eagles secondary ranks 4th-worst against QB’s and the worst against WR’s. With none of the field being on him, that’s exactly why you should. Never doubt Brady.
Ryan Tannehill ($7,300) – Jesus, after that long essay for Brady, let’s keep it short and simple for Tannehill. Tannehill comes into this game with a full WR Corps (except for Matthews), a new Offensive Coordinator who was formerly his QB’s Coach, and a plus-sized matchup against the Ravens secondary that ranks 31st in the NFL against QB’s, and 30th in the NFL against Receivers. Tannehill’s price on Fanduel has slowly dropped by $-700 from the beginning of the year, which could be an indication that the field has no interest.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,500) – Fitzpatrick has been shredding it lately, scoring close to 30 pts last week against the Dolphins, and in the past 3 weeks has averaged 21.25 points per game. Most importantly, Fitzpatrick has thrown for multiple TD’s in all but one game this year, and the Jets rank 1st in the NFL in Red-Zone TD’s, which means the opportunity is there for Fitzmagic. Also, the NYG-NYJ game has a very high O/U, and the matchup is tasty, with the Giants ranking 5th-worse against QB’s.
DeAngelo Williams ($7,200) – Williams has been very consistent this year. 83% of games started for Williams has resulted in either 100+ yards from scrimmage or a TD. He comes into this game at only $7.2k, down $-400 since the beginning of the year. The Colts rush D ranks 25th in the NFL against RB’s, and even with a High Vegas Total in this game, DeAngelo rarely comes off the field, so even if this game does become a blowout/shootout, Williams will still get the looks he needs.
LeSean McCoy ($7,800) – McCoy has been doing pretty well for himself as of late, averaging close to 19 points per game in the last 3 weeks. The Texans D ranks 21st against the run, so the matchup is obviously there. The good thing about Shady is that the volume and consistency is there as well. 89% of the games started by McCoy results in either 100+ yards from scrimmage or a TD of some kind. McCoy is also on the field for 75% of the teams’ snaps, which should increase with Karlos Williams being injured.
Brandon LaFell ($6,600) – Should be a popular play, and highly owned, however the stack with Brady will not be as popular, making LaFell an elite play at that point. The Eagles are absolutely horrible in the secondary (giving up an average of 29.5 pts per game to WR’s), especially the outside, where LaFell will probably be lined up. With all of the injuries in the passing game (and Dion Lewis), LaFell is the next man up, unless Amendola is 100% healthy come Sunday.
DeVante Parker ($5,200) – A great stack with Tannehill, Parker will finally get his first start on Sunday against the Ravens (according to Parker). With an absence of Rishard Matthews, and Jarvis Landry a little banged up, HC Dan Campbell stated that Parker will “carry a load on Sunday”. The Ravens secondary is banged up, and ranks 30th in the NFL against receivers.
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,300) – Yes, it is good to point out when a WR has a plus-sized matchup, but do not shy away from receivers either purely based on matchup. Great WR’s tend to win over good CB’s, so the fact that the Rams quietly rank 3rd in the NFL against WR’s. Fitz also provides quite a high ceiling, along with a high floor, so he makes for a safe play. Also, some consistency is there, as 45% of games started by Fitzgerald has resulted in either a TD or 100+ yards from scrimmage.
Whelp, Gronk is officially not going to be in play. What ever shall we do?
Martellus Bennett ($5,200) – Pure storyline theory, so use Bennett sparingly. Per Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk-
The Chicago Bears have thrust themselves into playoff contention. Their effort to finish the job could be undermined by a lingering rift with tight end Martellus Bennett. Bennett, who boycotted voluntary offseason workouts due to concerns about his contract, didn’t make the trip to Green Bay for last Thursday night’s win. As explained by Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune, Bennett expressed frustration during practice last week regarding his role in the offense. That has created to suspicions that Bennett didn’t play last week not because of a rib injury but because of his attitude.
So what does this mean? Look at the situation as a squeaky wheel that is trying to get the grease. Grease, and the attention needed to apply it to a wheel, might be a positive thing, and could work in favor of Bennett. Is he upset about Red Zone targets and his role in the offense? Well targets he shall get. He is, by far, the SLEEPER OF THE WEEK. Let’s hope he gets injured.
Kickers and Defense & Special Teams
Alright kids, go read a book.
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