Week 7 is in the books. Like always, this week entailed busts, surprises (Nate Washington), some busts and some great games and finishes. However, this was the best week for me, and for many others as Todd Gurley, Julio Jones, Philip Rivers, and Rob Gronkowski were all mid-to highly owned and posted some great numbers, all with 1 TD or more.
Razzball held their second weekly $5 Football League, and it was serious fun. I finished 10/55 (3 points behind Jay!), hitting on such players like Philip Rivers, Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, and Gronk. It was a good week for the chalk plays, as not many highly-owned players laid duds like they have in the past. I really encourage anyone interested in Daily Fantasy to try Razzball’s league (link is right below). It’s some good experience, and fun to see how you stack up against your fellow readers, myself, and Jay, who runs Razzball. If you do better than Jay Long himself, you should continue to play DFS, as I am told he is very good. He told me that once.
Join myself, Jay, and your fellow readers in a special Razzball-only Contest! Buy-in is just $5.00 and the top-12 finishers in a 55-team league are all part of the prize pool! Sign up here!
This Week’s Tip of the Cap goes to Washington’s quarterback Kirk Cousins, who after the dramatic 4th Quarter come-from-behind victory, silences the skeptics with 3 words. Keep on doing you Kirk, you do you big man.
Let’s get to Week 8.
Note: I am starting to keep going with strategy, however I will start using more statistics for my selections, and I use some great stats featured over at Football Outsiders. You guys should really check them out, great advanced analysis and stats.
Strategy: So many good players this week, and so many Elite QB’s are priced very low against great matchups. Because of this, many of the top-players should be highly owned, so it may be a good idea to start Cam Newton or Andy Dalton, however I do not think taking home large winnings will result in choosing those top-owned QB’s. I like the contrarian options this week at QB.
Eli Manning, NYG ($7,300) – Manning’s price has decreased by -$1,000 since the beginning of the year, and I can’t imagine why. With the correct pieces around him, he has been superb, with a total of 115 pts scored this year, ahead of one Matt Ryan. The Giants’ offense has been pretty average, ranking 14th in the NFL of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). I expect for Manning to be low-owned.
Jay Cutler, CHI ($7,300) – The Minnesota Vikings secondary is absolutely horrid, with DB Xavier Rhodes struggling, and Cutler should exploit that. Cutler has been doing pretty well, ranking 12th in the NFL in DYAR (Defensive Yards Above Replacemant), with 198 DYAR. Although the Bears aren’t very efficient on Offense, Cutler is, and that is all that matters. Cutler is a good contrarian play this week, especially if you use him in a stack with WR Alshon Jeffery. Cheap stacks are the right ones, and this one makes sense.
Joe Flacco, BAL ($7,400) – SLEEPER OF THE WEEK – Let’s face it, the Ravens are awful, and no one knows that better than Joe Flacco. But why do I like him this week? San Diego’s secondary is average, giving up the 15th most points in the league to QB’s. Also, according to Ravens beat writer Jamison Hensley, Steve Smith should be good-to-go for Sunday, helping out Flacco’s value.
Doug Martin, TB ($7,500) – A tasty matchup this week against the Falcons, Martin should able to produce like he has been over the past few weeks. The Falcons rank 29th in the NFL against the running backs, giving up an average of 24.0 pts per game.
Chris Johnson, ARI ($7,300) – Cleveland has the worst rush D in all of pro football, and choosing the back to face them week in and week out is a smart play at back. Look at what Todd Gurley did last week. Bruce Arians prefers CJ2K over the other running backs, and it shows in production and how talented he is. Johnson ranks 7 in the NFL in DYAR (Defensive Yards Above Replacement) with 97.
Antonio Brown, PIT ($8,400) – Ben Roethlisberger should be back, and that is good news for Brown, as he tends to do better with Roethlisberger instead of Landry Jones or Michael Vick. The Bengals secondary give up an average of 21.8 pts per game.
Alshon Jeffery, CHI ($7,700) – A great stack with one Jay Cutler. Jeffery should draw CB Xavier Rhodes, who allows 23 receptions this year on balls thrown his way. Also, the entire secondary as a whole give up an average of 19.2 pts per game to WR’s. In terms of how much production Jeffery has, the Chicago Bears throw the ball 55% of the time, a high number in the NFL.
Mike Evans, TB ($7,800) – Should be a target machine for the Bucs now that it looks like both Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy will not play Sunday. Two main Defensive Backs that will cover Evans haven’t been good all year, and Evans should take advantage of the good matchup and a good opportunity.
Well, Gronk isn’t playing so whatever shall we do?
Larry Donnell, NYG ($5,100) – Great stack this week with Eli if you choose to do so. Vegas has the Saints-Giants game at 49 total points, and any type of shootout can result in multiple TD’s being scored from a whole array of players. Great GPP punt play of the week if you wish to save some cash.
Kickers and Defense & Special Teams
Graham Gano, K, CAR ($4,700) – Shootout games mean good kicking opportunities
St. Louis Ram’s D/ST ($5,100) – Chalk D of the week, great matchup against the 49ers.
Whelp, that’s it for me for this week with my two articles. If you have any DFS questions, leave a comment below or hit me up on the Twitter @ohuhave12. Good luck to everyone this week, and go Badgers!