*This Buy, Sell, Hold video was released by Anime Donkey prior to week 9 action but his recommendations still apply for week 10*
The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 10. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.
The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.
|Team DEF||Slot PPG
*Total PPG includes screen passes
Slot PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed to the slot in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide PPG – This represents how many fantasy points a defense allowed on the outside to wide receivers in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Total PPG – This represents how many total fantasy points a defense allowed to the wide receiver position in .5 PPR over the past 5 weeks
Wide % – This represents what percentage of the total fantasy points the defense allowed on the outside over the past 5 weeks
Off Opponent – This represents the team that is facing the defense outlined in the chart this week
Out Wide Matchup Upgrades
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Matchup Upgrade: Marvin Jones
Marvin Jones has been underwhelming for fantasy since his hot start to the season. Jones has failed to top 40 yards receiving in 4 of the last 5 games. This has been very surprising as the injury to D.J. Chark looked to have Jones lined up for a big role in the Jacksonville pass game. After solid game vs. the Dolphins in Week 6, the Jaguars have faced back to back tough matchups for outside WRs. The Seahawks (2nd) and Bills (3rd) are both in the bottom 5 in fantasy points allowed to out wide WRs.
This week the Jaguars will have their best matchup in well over a month as they face the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have allowed the most points to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks. Notable outside WRs Elijah Moore (7-84-2), A.J. Brown (10-155-1) and Deebo Samuel (7-100-1) all had huge games vs. the Colts. Currently ranked as the WR33 according to FantasyPros ECR, Jones should be locked in as a WR3 in Week 10.
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: Washington Football Team
Matchup Upgrade: Tyler Johnson
Mike Evans is obvious here but yes Mike Evans is an auto-start this week. Now the Tampa Buccaneers are already down Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski and could be down Chris Godwin as well. This leaves a lot of opportunities for backup WR Tyler Johnson in Week 10. Johnson is coming off a solid day back in Week 8 vs. the Saints where he caught 5-65 on 6 targets. This marked the second week in a row that Johnson played over 60% of the snaps.
This week we could see Johnson’s role expand even further as Godwin’s injury could push him into 2 WR sets. This expanded role comes in a plus matchup vs. a Washington Football Team that has allowed the 8th most points to outside WRs. This includes allowing double digit fantasy points to #2 WRs Allen Lazard (5-60-1), Demarcus Robinson (3-46-1) and Emmanuel Sanders (5-94-2). Currently ranked as the WR63 according to FantasyPros ECR, Johnson could flirt with WR3 value in Week 10.
Team: Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Matchup Upgrade: Mike Williams
Mike Williams has struggled over the past 3 games as he has averaged 2 receptions for 35 yards and no scores. This has left many fantasy managers wondering if they can trust Williams going forward. In the 4 games Williams has struggled he has faced notable outside CBs. The list includes the Raiders Casey Hayward, Eagles Darius Slay, Patriots J.C. Jackson and Ravens Marlon Humphrey.
This week the tide should turn in Williams favor as the Minnesota Vikings are lacking talent in the secondary. Since the injury to Patrick Peterson the Vikings have struggled vs. WRs. Over the last two games Amari Cooper (8-122-1), CeeDee Lamb (6-112) and Marquise Brown (9-116) all had big performances on the outside. Currently ranked outside the top 20 according to FantasyPros ECR, Williams should bounce back in big way making him a solid play in Week 10.
Out Wide Matchup Downgrades
Team: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
Matchup Downgrade: Courtland Sutton
The return of Jerry Jeudy has put a damper on the fantasy value of Courtland Sutton. Over the past two week, Sutton has slipped to 4th on the team in targets only seeing 3 per game. This lack of volume has resulted in a extremely low floor as Sutton has averaged 24.5 receiving yards per game. This production was extremely disappointing as the Broncos faced the Washington Football Team (8th) and Dallas Cowboys (16th) in fantasy points allowed to outside WRs over the past 5 weeks.
This week the matchup will be a lot tougher for Sutton as faces a Eagles DST that has allowed the 12th fewest points per game out wide. This includes holding down notable perimeter WRs Mike Williams (2-58), Mike Evans (2-27) and D.J. Moore (5-42) over the past 5 weeks. Currently ranked as the WR30 on the week according to FantasyPros ECR, Sutton should be viewed as more of a desperation WR4/5 play in Week 10.
Team: Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
Matchup Downgrade: Robert Woods
Editor’s note: This article was written, submitted, and published before the news that Robert Woods had torn his ACL and is out for the year.
The news of the signing of Odell Beckham, Jr. might not affect Robert Woods for Week 10. However, moving forward it will be interesting to see if this limits Woods behind top WR Cooper Kupp. The Rams are only 19th in drop-backs per game this season. This low volume could make it difficult for 4-5 pass catchers along with Darrell Henderson to be fantasy viable week in and week out. For now, it looks doubtful that Beckham will play in Week 10.
Coming off a solid 7-98 day vs. the Titans where Woods finished as the WR16 on the week, it seems that he has settled into more of a borderline WR2/3 in good matchups. This week the Rams face a 49ers DST that has allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points out wide over the past 5 weeks. In tough matchups this season Woods has saved his day with a TDs. Even though, he found the end zone vs. the Giants (2-31-1) and Cardinals (4-48-1) he still finished outside the top 24 in both those games. Currently ranked as the WR20 according to FantasyPros ECR, Woods is best viewed as a low-end WR3 in Week 10.
Team: Carolina Panthers
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Matchup Downgrade: D.J. Moore
The disaster that has become the Panthers QB situation has truly affected D.J. Moore. It doesn’t help that the Panthers already suspect line has seen multiple injuries which has led to Sam Darnold seeing the second most drop-backs under pressure in the league. The trickle-down effect of this bad offensive line and QB play has hit Moore hard. After starting the season red-hot averaging 18.7 PPG in .5 PPR, Moore over the past 5 weeks has seen his PPG drop to 8.2. It doesn’t help matters that Moore has faced the 7th toughest out wide schedule over that span.
This week things will not open up for Moore as he faces the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals over the past 5 weeks have allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to outside WRs. This includes slowing down Deebo Samuel twice through the air (5-63) and (3-58) and Brandin Cooks (5-21), Currently ranked as the WR23 according to FantasyPros ECR, it is best to view Moore as a WR3/4 play with his QB situation in flux in a tough matchup.
Top 10 Rest of Season Out Wide Schedules
|Team Offense||ROS Wide PPG Allowed|
ROS Wide PPG Allowed – Average Points Per Game Allowed out wide by the remaining opponents that offense will face rest of season
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Sources: Razzball, Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Football Outsiders